5 ms·

2X% actually (I remember watching it in real time), but the point stands as it was way higher than anyone else thought.

• scott_s 9y ago
  And Nate Silver got a lot of flak for that in the week before the election.
  • zaphod12 9y ago
    He did indeed! He published an article in the last week that listed 4 outcomes for the election, each with ~25% confidence. 3 Had a Clinton victory and 1 did not. I recall him also making some pretty emphatic condemnations of Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium, arguing that the numbers absolutely did not support PEC's >95% confidence in a Clinton win. Wang, for his part was so confident that he offered to eat a bug if Clinton lost. Wang's statistical method turned out to be a disaster, but he did follow through.
    • kobeya 9y ago
      Having actually eaten a bug before (yay Boy Scout survival badge), I'm going to remember that one. The follow-through will impress people but it's not actually dangerous or even that unhygenic (as long as you eat the right bug).