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The comparison of terrorism to the opioid epidemic (which is both heartbreaking and underreported) or vending machines deaths breaks down when one factors in nu

The comparison of terrorism to the opioid epidemic (which is both heartbreaking and underreported) or vending machines deaths breaks down when one factors in nuclear weapons, attacks on critical infrastructure, etc. Violence from terrorism has fat tails. But, of course, multiple things can be bad at once.

vkou 9y ago
The odds of a terrorist group detonating a nuclear weapon are, for all intents and purposes, zero. The odds of a terrorist group detonating a dirty bomb are not, but the casualties from one will be much, much lower then what they can accomplish with an equivalent effort put into bathtub explosives. The danger of nation-states using their arsenal of nuclear weapons against each-other is at least two orders of magnitude greater. If those two nation states are the US, and Russia, the death toll will also number in the hundreds of millions. If you really want to optimize for 'not dying in a nuclear explosion', you should be clamoring for immediate, unconditional disarmament, instead of worrying about orcs from Mordor carrying out Hollywood suitcase nuke plots.
TallGuyShort 9y ago
The irrational fear about "terr'ists" the parent post is getting at, though, seems to rarely have anything to do with cataclysmic events like nuclear weapons these days. I literally hear people I know talk about keeping their guard up around Muslims because they're afraid of knife attacks, or you see the TSA freaking out about people pulling their clear plastic bag containing travel size toothpaste out of their suit case when this particular airport doesn't require you to do that. Statistically, individual acts of terrorism like that are indeed exceptionally unusual.
losteric 9y ago
Well, the opioid epidemic is arguably a subset of a broader problem including poorly managed antibiotics and pesticides. Genetic engineering is part of the fat tail here.
douche 9y ago
I'm constantly amazed, as vulnerable as we are, that in 20 years, there has only been one significant terrorist action within the United States.
- sigfigterrorist 9y ago
  I'm sure the victims of the insignificant terrorist actions within the US take comfort from your categorization.
  - ionised 9y ago
    because charged emotional responses are always the best responses

vkou 9y ago

The odds of a terrorist group detonating a nuclear weapon are, for all intents and purposes, zero. The odds of a terrorist group detonating a dirty bomb are not, but the casualties from one will be much, much lower then what they can accomplish with an equivalent effort put into bathtub explosives. The danger of nation-states using their arsenal of nuclear weapons against each-other is at least two orders of magnitude greater. If those two nation states are the US, and Russia, the death toll will also number in the hundreds of millions. If you really want to optimize for 'not dying in a nuclear explosion', you should be clamoring for immediate, unconditional disarmament, instead of worrying about orcs from Mordor carrying out Hollywood suitcase nuke plots.

TallGuyShort 9y ago

The irrational fear about "terr'ists" the parent post is getting at, though, seems to rarely have anything to do with cataclysmic events like nuclear weapons these days. I literally hear people I know talk about keeping their guard up around Muslims because they're afraid of knife attacks, or you see the TSA freaking out about people pulling their clear plastic bag containing travel size toothpaste out of their suit case when this particular airport doesn't require you to do that. Statistically, individual acts of terrorism like that are indeed exceptionally unusual.

losteric 9y ago

Well, the opioid epidemic is arguably a subset of a broader problem including poorly managed antibiotics and pesticides. Genetic engineering is part of the fat tail here.

douche 9y ago

I'm constantly amazed, as vulnerable as we are, that in 20 years, there has only been one significant terrorist action within the United States.

sigfigterrorist 9y ago
I'm sure the victims of the insignificant terrorist actions within the US take comfort from your categorization.
- ionised 9y ago
  because charged emotional responses are always the best responses