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If lithium is abundant in so many countries, why is it mined in so few? Compare: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_production https:/

If lithium is abundant in so many countries, why is it mined in so few? Compare: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_p... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_produ...

hwillis 9y ago
Wikipedia isnt exhaustive but the real reason is that hard rock deposits, primarily spodumene, are only economical at high volumes. Spodumene is present basically everywhere hard rocks are. Lithium brine, which makes up almost all of all current battery lithium, exists almost totally in three countries.
- stale2002 9y ago
  Well, ok, but that contradicts your statement that Lithium is available in almost all countries. It is only "available" in all countries if those countries want to pay an extremely high price, right?
  - Tuna-Fish 9y ago
    "Extremely high" requires the qualification that it's only high in comparison to the current market price, but not high in the sense that it makes use in batteries uneconomical. Currently, a very small proportion of the cost of the battery is lithium. As battery production increases, the market price of lithium will go up, potentially by several times. This will make spodumene deposits economical to extract, but it will not have a meaningful effect on the cost of the batteries. The preliminary work to open these deposits for extraction has started in many countries, for example the Keliber project in Finland is currently undergoing the environmental effect study. http://keliber.fi/ http://keliber.fi/
    - joshdayberry 9y ago
      This line of reasoning supports the original comment they reply to that you can't count on battery prices to drop. Even if costs aren't substantial enough to affect EV sales, eventually batteries will need replaced. I like the concept of EVs, but there are still 2 problems I can't get over. The first is that the environmental impact of building the car doesn't get much coverage and focus is on the impact of running the car. Are they really good for the environment? Who knows. The second is that recharging still takes too long and so I would want some type of range extender which bring oil back into the picture.
      - Tuna-Fish 9y ago
        > This line of reasoning supports the original comment they reply to that you can't count on battery prices to drop. No, it doesn't. The cost of lithium in the batteries is such a minor expense, that changes in lithium prices cannot move the price of a battery in either direction. The batteries are getting cheaper because of reasons unrelated to lithium, and even if the price of lithium were to quadruple from present levels, these other factors would totally dominate the price of the battery. If something is currently 1% of a price of a good, and it quadruples in price, it can at worst cause a 3% move up in the price of the good. If, at the same time, a different reason causes the price of the good to fall 40%, this 3% move up hardly registers.
      - greglindahl 9y ago
        There are plenty of studies of the life-cycle environmental impact of electric cars. They get mentioned on HN on occasion. As for recharging time, have you ever talked with a Tesla or Bolt owner?
        joshdayberry 9y ago
        No I haven't, I have never known a person who owns either. However, a quick search confirms my suspicions that it takes significantly longer to charge batteries than to fill a gas tank. A journey that takes more than 1 recharge would be considerably more difficult than the same trip in a gas car.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - hwillis 9y ago
    No. High volume, not high price. About a third of lithium is mined as hard rock currently, for about the same price as brine. The individual mining operations just have to be large.
- oasisbob 9y ago
  Thanks, that makes sense to me. I don't know a ton about mining history, but it seems that mining has always depended on cost efficiency. ("Duh?") eg, Froth floatation mining is the only reason that a ton of gold mines in the Pacific NW were ever cost effective, and formerly closed mines reopened as the technique came into use. Can only assume that as the price and demand on various precious metals change, the techniques and regions which can produce them economically will change as well.
  - hwillis 9y ago
    That's correct. The basic difference between brine and hard rock is that brine is simple to purify but can't be extracted any faster than lithium salts dissolve into water. Benefication and purification of hard rock lithium requires big grinders, flotation and acid baths, essentially the same process as mining any other metal. To justify building all that you need to be able to sell a lot, but once you do the cost is totally amortized. As an extreme example, coal mining in the US is so efficient that each miner produces 55 tons of coal per day. That kind of efficiency is enabled by the scale and investment. Current lithium sources are "easy pickings" and low-startup. It's like a single guy panning for gold by hand. He's just doing it for the chance at a buck, where gold is very convenient. Spodumene mining is froth flotation.

hwillis 9y ago

Wikipedia isnt exhaustive but the real reason is that hard rock deposits, primarily spodumene, are only economical at high volumes. Spodumene is present basically everywhere hard rocks are. Lithium brine, which makes up almost all of all current battery lithium, exists almost totally in three countries.

stale2002 9y ago
Well, ok, but that contradicts your statement that Lithium is available in almost all countries. It is only "available" in all countries if those countries want to pay an extremely high price, right?
- Tuna-Fish 9y ago
  "Extremely high" requires the qualification that it's only high in comparison to the current market price, but not high in the sense that it makes use in batteries uneconomical. Currently, a very small proportion of the cost of the battery is lithium. As battery production increases, the market price of lithium will go up, potentially by several times. This will make spodumene deposits economical to extract, but it will not have a meaningful effect on the cost of the batteries. The preliminary work to open these deposits for extraction has started in many countries, for example the Keliber project in Finland is currently undergoing the environmental effect study. http://keliber.fi/ http://keliber.fi/
  - joshdayberry 9y ago
    This line of reasoning supports the original comment they reply to that you can't count on battery prices to drop. Even if costs aren't substantial enough to affect EV sales, eventually batteries will need replaced. I like the concept of EVs, but there are still 2 problems I can't get over. The first is that the environmental impact of building the car doesn't get much coverage and focus is on the impact of running the car. Are they really good for the environment? Who knows. The second is that recharging still takes too long and so I would want some type of range extender which bring oil back into the picture.
    - Tuna-Fish 9y ago
      > This line of reasoning supports the original comment they reply to that you can't count on battery prices to drop. No, it doesn't. The cost of lithium in the batteries is such a minor expense, that changes in lithium prices cannot move the price of a battery in either direction. The batteries are getting cheaper because of reasons unrelated to lithium, and even if the price of lithium were to quadruple from present levels, these other factors would totally dominate the price of the battery. If something is currently 1% of a price of a good, and it quadruples in price, it can at worst cause a 3% move up in the price of the good. If, at the same time, a different reason causes the price of the good to fall 40%, this 3% move up hardly registers.
    - greglindahl 9y ago
      There are plenty of studies of the life-cycle environmental impact of electric cars. They get mentioned on HN on occasion. As for recharging time, have you ever talked with a Tesla or Bolt owner?
      - joshdayberry 9y ago
        No I haven't, I have never known a person who owns either. However, a quick search confirms my suspicions that it takes significantly longer to charge batteries than to fill a gas tank. A journey that takes more than 1 recharge would be considerably more difficult than the same trip in a gas car.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- hwillis 9y ago
  No. High volume, not high price. About a third of lithium is mined as hard rock currently, for about the same price as brine. The individual mining operations just have to be large.
oasisbob 9y ago
Thanks, that makes sense to me. I don't know a ton about mining history, but it seems that mining has always depended on cost efficiency. ("Duh?") eg, Froth floatation mining is the only reason that a ton of gold mines in the Pacific NW were ever cost effective, and formerly closed mines reopened as the technique came into use. Can only assume that as the price and demand on various precious metals change, the techniques and regions which can produce them economically will change as well.
- hwillis 9y ago
  That's correct. The basic difference between brine and hard rock is that brine is simple to purify but can't be extracted any faster than lithium salts dissolve into water. Benefication and purification of hard rock lithium requires big grinders, flotation and acid baths, essentially the same process as mining any other metal. To justify building all that you need to be able to sell a lot, but once you do the cost is totally amortized. As an extreme example, coal mining in the US is so efficient that each miner produces 55 tons of coal per day. That kind of efficiency is enabled by the scale and investment. Current lithium sources are "easy pickings" and low-startup. It's like a single guy panning for gold by hand. He's just doing it for the chance at a buck, where gold is very convenient. Spodumene mining is froth flotation.