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This projection that electric cars will soon become cheaper than gas cars assumes an exponential decay in cost. All exponential trends ultimately cease due to

This projection that electric cars will soon become cheaper than gas cars assumes an exponential decay in cost. All exponential trends ultimately cease due to some physical limiting factor. We're seeing Moore's law sputter to a halt because it is getting more expensive (and not less) to make smaller features on microprocessors- semiconductor manufacturing processes are just not scaling the way they have for decades. Nevertheless Moore's law was a truly exceptional exponential ramp unrivaled in the history of technology. Does battery manufacturing have the same advantages that will allow for a tremendous long-term exponential ramp analogous to Moore's law? I am wondering how long it will take for battery technology to "hit the wall". Hopefully batteries will become significantly cheaper, safer, and faster to charge but I am skeptical that we will be able to ride this exponential curve for anywhere near as long as we've benefited from Moore's law. I hope I am wrong.

madengr 9y ago
Though I don't think it needs to drop exponentially. Take any of the new EV (Leaf, Bolt, Model 3) that are $35k and drop the price by 2/3, keep the 200 mile range, and ICE car sales will die fast. ICE car prices are not dropping. EV only need to drop below ICE, not a continuous Moore's law. I bought a used 2015 Leaf recently for $8500. Yes, it's only 80 mile range, but that gets me to work for two days without charging. It's nearly free to drive; $0.02/mile energy costs, or nothing if I charge for free at local charge stations.
- WorldMaker 9y ago
  There's the flipside to consider too: ICE car prices are as low as they are today because of huge efficiencies of scale in existing engine supply chains and also a large inventory of used cars. Used car inventory is something that will market align over time. Engine supply chain disruptions are hard to predict, but can snowball quickly.

madengr 9y ago

Though I don't think it needs to drop exponentially. Take any of the new EV (Leaf, Bolt, Model 3) that are $35k and drop the price by 2/3, keep the 200 mile range, and ICE car sales will die fast. ICE car prices are not dropping. EV only need to drop below ICE, not a continuous Moore's law. I bought a used 2015 Leaf recently for $8500. Yes, it's only 80 mile range, but that gets me to work for two days without charging. It's nearly free to drive; $0.02/mile energy costs, or nothing if I charge for free at local charge stations.

WorldMaker 9y ago
There's the flipside to consider too: ICE car prices are as low as they are today because of huge efficiencies of scale in existing engine supply chains and also a large inventory of used cars. Used car inventory is something that will market align over time. Engine supply chain disruptions are hard to predict, but can snowball quickly.