You're right, modeling the political effects is extremely complicated and I would agree almost impossible to do with any granularity. But we don't have to do th

You're right, modeling the political effects is extremely complicated and I would agree almost impossible to do with any granularity. But we don't have to do that in order to know that the effects we can see happening are disastrous because even the best case scenarios of people calmly relocating are still a disaster, because the destinations are not prepared for the influx of population (think of the Syrian refugee criss but many, many times over.)