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A Failure of Intelligence (2006)
- paulsutter 9y agoGreat article. This aside is counterintuitive and interesting: > Smeed...collected statistics...under an enormous range of conditions, the number of deaths in a country per year is given by a simple formula: number of deaths equals .0003 times the two-thirds power of the number of people times the one-third power of the number of cars. This formula is known as Smeed’s Law. He published it in 1949, and it is still valid 57 years later. It is, of course, not exact, but it holds within a factor of two for almost all countries at almost all times. It is remarkable that the number of deaths does not depend strongly on the size of the country, the quality of the roads, the rules and regulations governing traffic, or the safety equipment installed in cars
- Pamar 9y agoI was intrigued myself so I checked Wikipedia: "The validity of Smeed's "Law" is a matter of debate: Smeed's Law is a classic example of a statistical fallacy caused by mathematical coupling wherein correlation is found between variables that share common factors. A series of random numbers for inputs would generate the same hyperbolic curve that Smeed's graphs show. The potential for this error was first described by Pearson in 1897 [4]and has been restated elsewhere.[5]"
- autokad 9y agoa quick non sarcastic question, if the guns didnt make a difference, then how did flying in tight groups help? (keep in mind this is only English night flying bombers)