8 ms·

Innovation Won't Overcome Stagnation

10 points by lnguyen 9y ago

paulpauper 9y ago
I guess by the author's logic, there has been stagnation since the the stone age, because cars still use wheels to move stuff. A smart phone is no different than a rotary phone ,because they involve imputing numbers into an interface, etc.
jccooper 9y ago
Not productivity-enhancing: "A driverless or electric automobile is just a new type of car." Productivity-enhancing: "Word processing software didn't eliminate the need to type out documents but eliminated secretaries and typing pools, leaving individuals to do the task themselves." Sure, those are totally different.
jankotek 9y ago
> It's true that many recent innovations have reduced costs. But they've often done so by using lower-quality products or untrained workers, or by extracting revenue from personal assets. I read biography of Tomas Bata, in industrialist from 1930ties. Growth and innovation used to be about making things cheaper and affordable, while preserving quality. Today it is hard to imagine housing cost should go down, rather than up.
- TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
  Housing costs are going up because the good jobs are being concentrated to a handful of cities in the country that benefit from globalization. Cheap housing is abundant in rural America, but because the corporations that control our government benefit from a concentrated workforce, they have no reason to invest in rural America.
  - killjoywashere 9y ago
    Housing costs also go up because of the mortgage interest deduction. The home-owning middle class is living in subsidized housing.
    - TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
      Are you saying that the mortgage interest reduction is causing the insane housing costs in the cities? If this were the case, wouldn't we see an equivalent increase in costs in the somewhat rural areas?
      - killjoywashere 9y ago
        As people move away from the midwest, and the midwest economies lag, their housing costs should have cratered. Instead, they had the same 2008-2009 bubble popping everyone else saw, then continued to drift up. Source: bought and sold homes in 3 regions in the last 10 years. Also, you can marinate yourself in the trend lines on trulia.
jtraffic 9y ago
I have many problems with this analysis, but I'll name the biggest one: the author focuses on increases in value provided, but doesn't consider the cost (for consumers) to obtain that value. If we receive the same value for lower cost, that's as good as an increase in productivity: I can earn the same money and afford a better living standard. Moreover, this kind of advance benefits the poor disproportionately (relative to the kind the author addresses).
- TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
  This assumes the poor and middle class don't see a decrease in wages, which just doesn't happen. Wages are a function of supply and demand, and with a larger labor pool, wages go down. A good example is the effect globalization has had on the Midwest[1]. Wages are lower, inequality is higher, and the jobs are being concentrated to cities with a higher cost of living. Historically, a family could live comfortably with a single wage earner in the house. Nowadays that's very tough to do without having an advanced degree. [1] http://www.epi.org/press/globalization-lowered-wages-american-workers/ http://www.epi.org/press/globalization-lowered-wages-america...
  - jtraffic 9y ago
    > This assumes the poor and middle class don't see a decrease in wages I disagree. I think it only assumes that relative wages fall less than the relative incremental value of the new tech increases. > Wages are a function of supply and demand Yeah, but my point is that wages in isolation don't tell you much. The difficult-to-measure value accessible with those wages matters too. > A good example is the effect globalization has had on the Midwest[1] Irrelevant. Globalization need not move in lockstep with new technology. I don't want to be reductionist, and perhaps my original comment came across as overconfident. My core assertion is that "it's not that simple," which decreases the value of conclusions based on oversimplified analysis. I think the article is oversimplified.
mbleigh 9y ago
This author seems to be afflicted by a crippling short-sightedness. I stopped reading when I hit the sentence about autonomous cars being "just a new type of car".

10 points by lnguyen 9y ago

I guess by the author's logic, there has been stagnation since the the stone age, because cars still use wheels to move stuff. A smart phone is no different than a rotary phone ,because they involve imputing numbers into an interface, etc.

jccooper 9y ago

Not productivity-enhancing: "A driverless or electric automobile is just a new type of car." Productivity-enhancing: "Word processing software didn't eliminate the need to type out documents but eliminated secretaries and typing pools, leaving individuals to do the task themselves." Sure, those are totally different.

jankotek 9y ago

> It's true that many recent innovations have reduced costs. But they've often done so by using lower-quality products or untrained workers, or by extracting revenue from personal assets. I read biography of Tomas Bata, in industrialist from 1930ties. Growth and innovation used to be about making things cheaper and affordable, while preserving quality. Today it is hard to imagine housing cost should go down, rather than up.

TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
Housing costs are going up because the good jobs are being concentrated to a handful of cities in the country that benefit from globalization. Cheap housing is abundant in rural America, but because the corporations that control our government benefit from a concentrated workforce, they have no reason to invest in rural America.
- killjoywashere 9y ago
  Housing costs also go up because of the mortgage interest deduction. The home-owning middle class is living in subsidized housing.
  - TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
    Are you saying that the mortgage interest reduction is causing the insane housing costs in the cities? If this were the case, wouldn't we see an equivalent increase in costs in the somewhat rural areas?
    - killjoywashere 9y ago
      As people move away from the midwest, and the midwest economies lag, their housing costs should have cratered. Instead, they had the same 2008-2009 bubble popping everyone else saw, then continued to drift up. Source: bought and sold homes in 3 regions in the last 10 years. Also, you can marinate yourself in the trend lines on trulia.

jtraffic 9y ago

I have many problems with this analysis, but I'll name the biggest one: the author focuses on increases in value provided, but doesn't consider the cost (for consumers) to obtain that value. If we receive the same value for lower cost, that's as good as an increase in productivity: I can earn the same money and afford a better living standard. Moreover, this kind of advance benefits the poor disproportionately (relative to the kind the author addresses).

TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
This assumes the poor and middle class don't see a decrease in wages, which just doesn't happen. Wages are a function of supply and demand, and with a larger labor pool, wages go down. A good example is the effect globalization has had on the Midwest[1]. Wages are lower, inequality is higher, and the jobs are being concentrated to cities with a higher cost of living. Historically, a family could live comfortably with a single wage earner in the house. Nowadays that's very tough to do without having an advanced degree. [1] http://www.epi.org/press/globalization-lowered-wages-american-workers/ http://www.epi.org/press/globalization-lowered-wages-america...
- jtraffic 9y ago
  > This assumes the poor and middle class don't see a decrease in wages I disagree. I think it only assumes that relative wages fall less than the relative incremental value of the new tech increases. > Wages are a function of supply and demand Yeah, but my point is that wages in isolation don't tell you much. The difficult-to-measure value accessible with those wages matters too. > A good example is the effect globalization has had on the Midwest[1] Irrelevant. Globalization need not move in lockstep with new technology. I don't want to be reductionist, and perhaps my original comment came across as overconfident. My core assertion is that "it's not that simple," which decreases the value of conclusions based on oversimplified analysis. I think the article is oversimplified.

mbleigh 9y ago

This author seems to be afflicted by a crippling short-sightedness. I stopped reading when I hit the sentence about autonomous cars being "just a new type of car".