4 ms·

I think one has to include that factor in a thorough analysis of this issue. The US has a much higher murder rate than other developed countries; 3.9 murders pe

I think one has to include that factor in a thorough analysis of this issue. The US has a much higher murder rate than other developed countries; 3.9 murders per year per 100k population, compared to 0.6/100k in Norway, 0.3/100k in Singapore, and around 1/100k in the major EU countries [1]. I think it's entirely possible that different punishment regimes are effective at different levels of violence in the population. But I don't know that there is a good way of quantifying that point, since we're talking about interventions at the state level. Or it could be that once your society gets the murder rate down to < 1/100k, something else has changed in your society and it doesn't matter how you punish your criminals. Certainly there's something different about the US; a good analysis here [2], though that is specifically on the mind-killer subject of gun violence. Pinker's "The better angels of our nature" has some interesting ideas on this subject too. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intention... [2]: http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/06/guns-and-states/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/06/guns-and-states/

tuna-piano 9y ago
Right. It seems awfully silly to show a chart of "prisoners per 100k people" without a chart of "violent crimes per 100,000 people". Sure, the US has 10x the incarceration rate of Norway, but we also have 6.5x the murder rate. You can say our prisons aren't effective at reducing crime, but when a country has way more crime, you'd expect them to have way more prisoners. It's not an argument of "over-incarceration" (as is often heard).
- maxerickson 9y ago
  It can be, to the extent that other policy differences are making an impact on the rates (instead of the hand of god or whatever).
- vkou 9y ago
  If you increased the number of murderers in Norway by 6.5x, you would not increase the number of prisoners in Norway by 6.5x.
  - Noumenon72 9y ago
    You would, if other crimes are caused by the same factors you used to increase murders -- lead supplements, immigration, or encouraging Kristallnachts.
  - theptip 9y ago
    You state that as obvious, but I'm not sure -- that is an interesting question that bears some examination. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_correlations_of_criminal_behaviour https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_correlations_of_cr... doesn't seem to answer directly, but does talk about some genetic and environmental causes for violent crime. It seems likely that there are some factors contributing to the US's higher murder rate that would also be expected to spill over into the violent crime rate. I'd like to dig into whether the US has higher non-violent crime rates than other countries as well, but can't find any good summaries right now. So I think I'd expect to see a lot more violent crime if you increased the murder rate by 6.5x, and that might get you close to 6.5x the prison population depending on the breakdown of the difference in crime rates. But having said that, it seems likely that there are a few factors contributing to the incarceration rate, not just the higher base rate of violent crime.

tuna-piano 9y ago

Right. It seems awfully silly to show a chart of "prisoners per 100k people" without a chart of "violent crimes per 100,000 people". Sure, the US has 10x the incarceration rate of Norway, but we also have 6.5x the murder rate. You can say our prisons aren't effective at reducing crime, but when a country has way more crime, you'd expect them to have way more prisoners. It's not an argument of "over-incarceration" (as is often heard).

maxerickson 9y ago
It can be, to the extent that other policy differences are making an impact on the rates (instead of the hand of god or whatever).
vkou 9y ago
If you increased the number of murderers in Norway by 6.5x, you would not increase the number of prisoners in Norway by 6.5x.
- Noumenon72 9y ago
  You would, if other crimes are caused by the same factors you used to increase murders -- lead supplements, immigration, or encouraging Kristallnachts.
- theptip 9y ago
  You state that as obvious, but I'm not sure -- that is an interesting question that bears some examination. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_correlations_of_criminal_behaviour https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_correlations_of_cr... doesn't seem to answer directly, but does talk about some genetic and environmental causes for violent crime. It seems likely that there are some factors contributing to the US's higher murder rate that would also be expected to spill over into the violent crime rate. I'd like to dig into whether the US has higher non-violent crime rates than other countries as well, but can't find any good summaries right now. So I think I'd expect to see a lot more violent crime if you increased the murder rate by 6.5x, and that might get you close to 6.5x the prison population depending on the breakdown of the difference in crime rates. But having said that, it seems likely that there are a few factors contributing to the incarceration rate, not just the higher base rate of violent crime.