6 ms·

Perhaps it's also a cultural difference? Notice how Japan has the same rate of homicides as Singapore? Perhaps it's a cultural thing more so than a policy thi

by Svip 9y ago

Perhaps it's also a cultural difference? Notice how Japan has the same rate of homicides as Singapore? Perhaps it's a cultural thing more so than a policy thing working out in Asia. Comparing countries with corporal punishment with their intentional homicide rate leads to no conclusion. The United States have tried harsher punishments for decades now, and it's not working out. Perhaps a different method is devised? Besides, you may approve of legal corporal punishment, but I am not sure everyone in the West does.

tuna-piano 9y ago
I think the cultural difference piece is hard to judge, but it's very difficult for me (a mostly uninformed reader) to figure that piece out. I think no matter how you try and get the stats, that piece will remain. I think my main takeaway is that the US has a pretty bad system currently. Our prisons do seem like breeding grounds for criminals, and our recidivism rate is high. One way to end recidivism is potentially with education. Another way to reduce the problem of recidivism is by locking a repeat offender up for life[1]. I'm not sure the answer, but clearly there's room for improvement in the US system. Our crime statistics are just so much worse in the US, it seems like we need radical, generational changes to try and make our crime rates more like similar European countries. More Chicagoans have been killed in gun violence since the start of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq than US soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq.[2] In the top 50 world cities by murder rate, 46/50 are in countries that you might expect (Brazil, Mexico, Honduras, etc)[3]. But 4 are in one of the richest countries in the world, with St. Louis premiering at #14. A 20-30% drop by making our prisons universities is not enough to make these numbers tolerable to me. We need massive change (not just with criminal justice... obviously education, culture, economics all play a part). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-strikes_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-strikes_law [2]https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2016/09/08/homicides-in-chicago-eclipse-u-s-death-toll-in-afghanistan-and-iraq-infographic/#18b5801e7d75 https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2016/09/08/homici... [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate
- pjc50 9y ago
  > Our crime statistics are just so much worse in the US, it seems like we need radical, generational changes to try and make our crime rates more like similar European countries. This requires a choice - a commitment to actually do what's necessary to reduce violence, by recognising and fixing the systemic factors. Glasgow attempted this recently with great success: http://www.actiononviolence.org.uk/about-us http://www.actiononviolence.org.uk/about-us Glasgow now has 5.1 homicides per 100,000 people, compared to the worst rate in the US (St. Louis, 59.3 homicides per 100,000 people). Some of the techniques were in fact imported from the US: > "In tackling gang crime the unit imported a successful anti-gang violence initiative spearheaded in Boston in the 1990s. The Community Initiative to Reduce Violence (CIRV) programme broke up Glasgow's long established gangs by offering members an alternative to the violent lives they were living . The VRU also successfully lobbied for increases in maximum sentences for carrying knives."
theptip 9y ago
I think one has to include that factor in a thorough analysis of this issue. The US has a much higher murder rate than other developed countries; 3.9 murders per year per 100k population, compared to 0.6/100k in Norway, 0.3/100k in Singapore, and around 1/100k in the major EU countries [1]. I think it's entirely possible that different punishment regimes are effective at different levels of violence in the population. But I don't know that there is a good way of quantifying that point, since we're talking about interventions at the state level. Or it could be that once your society gets the murder rate down to < 1/100k, something else has changed in your society and it doesn't matter how you punish your criminals. Certainly there's something different about the US; a good analysis here [2], though that is specifically on the mind-killer subject of gun violence. Pinker's "The better angels of our nature" has some interesting ideas on this subject too. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intention... [2]: http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/06/guns-and-states/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/06/guns-and-states/
- tuna-piano 9y ago
  Right. It seems awfully silly to show a chart of "prisoners per 100k people" without a chart of "violent crimes per 100,000 people". Sure, the US has 10x the incarceration rate of Norway, but we also have 6.5x the murder rate. You can say our prisons aren't effective at reducing crime, but when a country has way more crime, you'd expect them to have way more prisoners. It's not an argument of "over-incarceration" (as is often heard).
  - maxerickson 9y ago
    It can be, to the extent that other policy differences are making an impact on the rates (instead of the hand of god or whatever).
  - vkou 9y ago
    If you increased the number of murderers in Norway by 6.5x, you would not increase the number of prisoners in Norway by 6.5x.

by Svip 9y ago

tuna-piano 9y ago

I think the cultural difference piece is hard to judge, but it's very difficult for me (a mostly uninformed reader) to figure that piece out. I think no matter how you try and get the stats, that piece will remain. I think my main takeaway is that the US has a pretty bad system currently. Our prisons do seem like breeding grounds for criminals, and our recidivism rate is high. One way to end recidivism is potentially with education. Another way to reduce the problem of recidivism is by locking a repeat offender up for life[1]. I'm not sure the answer, but clearly there's room for improvement in the US system. Our crime statistics are just so much worse in the US, it seems like we need radical, generational changes to try and make our crime rates more like similar European countries. More Chicagoans have been killed in gun violence since the start of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq than US soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq.[2] In the top 50 world cities by murder rate, 46/50 are in countries that you might expect (Brazil, Mexico, Honduras, etc)[3]. But 4 are in one of the richest countries in the world, with St. Louis premiering at #14. A 20-30% drop by making our prisons universities is not enough to make these numbers tolerable to me. We need massive change (not just with criminal justice... obviously education, culture, economics all play a part). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-strikes_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-strikes_law [2]https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2016/09/08/homicides-in-chicago-eclipse-u-s-death-toll-in-afghanistan-and-iraq-infographic/#18b5801e7d75 https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2016/09/08/homici... [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate

pjc50 9y ago
> Our crime statistics are just so much worse in the US, it seems like we need radical, generational changes to try and make our crime rates more like similar European countries. This requires a choice - a commitment to actually do what's necessary to reduce violence, by recognising and fixing the systemic factors. Glasgow attempted this recently with great success: http://www.actiononviolence.org.uk/about-us http://www.actiononviolence.org.uk/about-us Glasgow now has 5.1 homicides per 100,000 people, compared to the worst rate in the US (St. Louis, 59.3 homicides per 100,000 people). Some of the techniques were in fact imported from the US: > "In tackling gang crime the unit imported a successful anti-gang violence initiative spearheaded in Boston in the 1990s. The Community Initiative to Reduce Violence (CIRV) programme broke up Glasgow's long established gangs by offering members an alternative to the violent lives they were living . The VRU also successfully lobbied for increases in maximum sentences for carrying knives."

theptip 9y ago

I think one has to include that factor in a thorough analysis of this issue. The US has a much higher murder rate than other developed countries; 3.9 murders per year per 100k population, compared to 0.6/100k in Norway, 0.3/100k in Singapore, and around 1/100k in the major EU countries [1]. I think it's entirely possible that different punishment regimes are effective at different levels of violence in the population. But I don't know that there is a good way of quantifying that point, since we're talking about interventions at the state level. Or it could be that once your society gets the murder rate down to < 1/100k, something else has changed in your society and it doesn't matter how you punish your criminals. Certainly there's something different about the US; a good analysis here [2], though that is specifically on the mind-killer subject of gun violence. Pinker's "The better angels of our nature" has some interesting ideas on this subject too. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intention... [2]: http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/06/guns-and-states/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/06/guns-and-states/

tuna-piano 9y ago
Right. It seems awfully silly to show a chart of "prisoners per 100k people" without a chart of "violent crimes per 100,000 people". Sure, the US has 10x the incarceration rate of Norway, but we also have 6.5x the murder rate. You can say our prisons aren't effective at reducing crime, but when a country has way more crime, you'd expect them to have way more prisoners. It's not an argument of "over-incarceration" (as is often heard).
- maxerickson 9y ago
  It can be, to the extent that other policy differences are making an impact on the rates (instead of the hand of god or whatever).
- vkou 9y ago
  If you increased the number of murderers in Norway by 6.5x, you would not increase the number of prisoners in Norway by 6.5x.