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If this article is biased because it shows some pessimism towards self-driving hype, what are the dozens of articles that blindly accept Musks near-term prophec
by frgtpsswrdlame 9y ago
If this article is biased because it shows some pessimism towards self-driving hype, what are the dozens of articles that blindly accept Musks near-term prophecy?
Here's another good source for some pessimism:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/10/self-driving-cars-how-badly-is-the-technology-hyped.html http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/10/self-driving-cars-how...
Here's the best parts:
Contrary to Musk and many of the most prominent advocates of autonomous cars, Shladover insists that so-called Level 5 vehicles—robocars that require no human input—are not on the horizon. “I tell adult audiences not to expect it in their lifetimes. And I say the same thing to students,” he says. “Merely dealing with lighting conditions, weather conditions, and traffic conditions is immensely complicated. The software requirements are extremely daunting. Nobody even has the ability to verify and validate the software. I estimate that the challenge of fully automated cars is 10 orders of magnitude more complicated than [fully automated] commercial aviation.”
Herman Herman, director of the Carnegie-Mellon University Robotics Institute, disagrees as well: "With autonomous cars, you see these videos from Google and Uber showing a car driving around, but people have not taken it past 80 percent. It’s one of those problems where it’s easy to get to the first 80 percent, but it’s incredibly difficult to solve the last 20 percent. If you have a good GPS, nicely marked roads like in California, and nice weather without snow or rain, it’s actually not that hard. But guess what? To solve the real problem, for you or me to buy a car that can drive autonomously from point A to point B—it’s not even close. There are fundamental problems that need to be solved."
- rwmj 9y agoBut a car that solves the 80% (say it only works on sunny days) is still incredibly useful, and I'd buy one. If it only halves the number of times I have to drive, it's providing real value.
- sliken 9y agoCan you really take an article claiming flying is 10 orders of magnitude harder than driving? Because flying hugely more complicated machines in 3D at speeds 10 times those of driving is so simple? 2^10th easier? Or was it 10^10th? Wow, if an 18 year old can be safe enough to drive, that should make piloting easy at what 3 years old?