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your absolute chance of becoming a millionaire isn't 2/3. 2/3 millionaires are entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurial route to millions is at least double that of
by NewWorldOrder 19y ago
your absolute chance of becoming a millionaire isn't 2/3. 2/3 millionaires are entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurial route to millions is at least double that of the non-entrepreneurial route (assuming there are no more entrepreneurs than there are non-entrepreneurs -- a reasonable assumption)...in the example game given at the post, the non-entrepreneurial route is assigned the chance of 1/3 (assuming 1 out 3 non-entrepreneurs are millionaires -- not so reasonable assumption)...so 2/3 is at least double of 1/3.
To be clear, if there are 30 millionaires and 3K non-entrepreneurs and 3K entrepreneurs, the entrepreneurial route obviously wouldn't be 2/3, but it will be double that of the non-entrepreneurial route.
Excuse the confusion.
- paulgb 19y agoOk, I see your reasoning, but I think it would be better to word it like this: "You are (statistically) twice as likely to be a millionaire if you are an entrepreneur than if you are not an entrepreneur (assuming that less than two thirds of the total population are entrepreneurs)." But this still leaves a correlation/causation problem if you want to use it to imply that choosing the entrepreneurial path makes one twice as likely to become rich.