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These studies are always interesting, but I don't think they have much more scientific validity than, say, asking a bunch of religious fundamentalist preachers
by briga 9y ago
These studies are always interesting, but I don't think they have much more scientific validity than, say, asking a bunch of religious fundamentalist preachers when the second coming of Jesus is going to be. No one knows how difficult it's going to be, and while we've overcome a lot of challenges, I'm positive there are many more to overcome before we get to human-level intelligence in computers. Whatever that means.
- Houshalter 9y agoWhat would it mean for a prediction to have scientific validity? No one can know the future of course. But if you are going to try to make a prediction, surveying a bunch of experts is probably the best strategy. If nothing else, the wisdom of crowds phenomenon shows the average of a bunch of wild guesses is often surprisingly close to the correct answer.
- briga 9y agoAll I mean is that these predictions have to be taken with a grain of salt. I feel like there's an inherent assumption here that the scientific and political landscape will remain unchanged and progress will continue at or exceed it's current pace. There are plenty of things that could prevent this from being true -- nuclear war, economic/political collapse, natural disaster, to name a few. I do hope they're accurate -- mainly because I think it would be cool to see human-level AI in my lifetime -- but at the same time I remain skeptical