3 ms·
In my opinion, china GDP is under-valuated (despite government growth figure cooking). So, I guess that debt will not be a problem. What could be a problem is p
by faragon 9y ago
In my opinion, china GDP is under-valuated (despite government growth figure cooking). So, I guess that debt will not be a problem. What could be a problem is private debt, driving to fusion of similar companies, and public bail-out of banks in case of Chinese housing bubble popping in major cities. Pretty much what happened in Japan (1989, [1], [2]), EE.UU. (2007, [3], [4]), and some places of Europe (2007-2009 [5], [6]).
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_property_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_property_bubble
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble