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> People have been waiting decades for Japan's post-boom day of reckoning and we've not seen it. Japan's "day of reckoning" already came: what they've been in
by Analemma_ 9y ago
> People have been waiting decades for Japan's post-boom day of reckoning and we've not seen it.
Japan's "day of reckoning" already came: what they've been in for the last 25+ years is the "post-reckoning" of ZIRP, low growth and low inflation. If the Chinese debt bubble explodes, it's not like the country is going to collapse, the most common prediction is that they'll become "Japan 2.0" where the country is functional but trapped in anemic growth because they won't let zombie businesses fail.
- coffeevradar 9y agoYeah, it's more like people have been waiting for decades for a day of reckoning for Japan in the sense that the country is still very productive in many senses but has yet to escape its extremely long-term recession. Japan has been punished enough. It's quite tragic.
- toomuchtodo 9y agoPunished? Late stage first world economies with structural issues (an aging population, enourmous entitlement obligations) can escape recessions (stagnation, really) no more than humans can escape the heat death of the universe.
- tlear 9y agoHuge problem in China is that unlike Japan it is not a uniform country. Income is VERY unevenly distributed geographically. Japan can stay in zombie state because even in stagnation it is pretty nice place to live for most people. The poor areas of China can not afford stagnation. Elite knows this and dreads it, why Vancouver housing market is nuts? Because when you live in China and have $$ you really want to have a place to bolt to or at least have your kids be somewhere else when the proverbial shit hits the fan.