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Where did you get this info? Every source I see shows China's Debt/GDP (42.90%) as much lower than the US (104.17%).

by Apes 9y ago

Analemma_ 9y ago
The parent is talking about total debt - public, household, and corporate. China's public debt isn't too much but the corporate debt is what has skyrocketed. Many analysts treat Chinese corporate debt as more-or-less equivalent to public debt (and don't do this for the United States), on the assumption that the government will bail out SOEs rather than allow them to fail and create widespread unemployment. That may or may not be true, but that's why they make statements like "China's debt is twice the United States'".
- cinquemb 9y ago
  >Many analysts treat Chinese corporate debt as more-or-less equivalent to public debt (and don't do this for the United States), on the assumption that the government will bail out SOEs rather than allow them to fail and create widespread unemployment I'd say this certainly gives a lot of political leeway in China, compared to having the opposite in place. I wonder if all the major US companies that were bailed out, that their debt should be considered public debt seeing there is already a precedent in place. But something tells me I doubt moodys will have a word on that.
JumpCrisscross 9y ago
China's total debt is about 250% of GDP, compared to over 300% for the United States [1]. It's more useful to observe total debt since lots of debt the Chinese government will ultimately have to assume, in one form (e.g. financially) or another (e.g. political turmoil), is not held on the government balance sheet, e.g. debt issued by its banks or critical employers or regional governments. Most American debt, on the other hand, is issued by relatively-well regulated banks and by the federal government. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/16/chinas-debt-is-250-of-gdp-and-could-be-fatal-says-government-expert https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/16/chinas-debt...
- fspeech 9y ago
  The 43% number already includes provincial government debt. Direct debt of the central government is about 20%. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_...

Where did you get this info? Every source I see shows China's Debt/GDP (42.90%) as much lower than the US (104.17%).

by Apes 9y ago

Where did you get this info? Every source I see shows China's Debt/GDP (42.90%) as much lower than the US (104.17%).

The parent is talking about total debt - public, household, and corporate. China's public debt isn't too much but the corporate debt is what has skyrocketed. Many analysts treat Chinese corporate debt as more-or-less equivalent to public debt (and don't do this for the United States), on the assumption that the government will bail out SOEs rather than allow them to fail and create widespread unemployment. That may or may not be true, but that's why they make statements like "China's debt is twice the United States'".

cinquemb 9y ago
>Many analysts treat Chinese corporate debt as more-or-less equivalent to public debt (and don't do this for the United States), on the assumption that the government will bail out SOEs rather than allow them to fail and create widespread unemployment I'd say this certainly gives a lot of political leeway in China, compared to having the opposite in place. I wonder if all the major US companies that were bailed out, that their debt should be considered public debt seeing there is already a precedent in place. But something tells me I doubt moodys will have a word on that.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago

China's total debt is about 250% of GDP, compared to over 300% for the United States [1]. It's more useful to observe total debt since lots of debt the Chinese government will ultimately have to assume, in one form (e.g. financially) or another (e.g. political turmoil), is not held on the government balance sheet, e.g. debt issued by its banks or critical employers or regional governments. Most American debt, on the other hand, is issued by relatively-well regulated banks and by the federal government. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/16/chinas-debt-is-250-of-gdp-and-could-be-fatal-says-government-expert https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/16/chinas-debt...

fspeech 9y ago
The 43% number already includes provincial government debt. Direct debt of the central government is about 20%. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_...