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For those joining the stream now, can anyone indicate the current state of the match? Is AlphaGo already dominating? I keep waiting for the commentators to give
by atrudeau 9y ago
For those joining the stream now, can anyone indicate the current state of the match? Is AlphaGo already dominating? I keep waiting for the commentators to give their opinion but they haven't so far.
- partycoder 9y agoIt's hard to say since Alpha Go's style is not about maximizing a score difference but about maximizing a probability of winning.
- stouset 9y agoThis is a really, really important point to consider. AlphaGo does not care if it wins by a half point or twenty points. Increasing your margin of victory past your margin of error is one way of achieving victory, but simply reducing your margin of error below your current margin of victory can be just as effective an approach in many situations. If AlphaGo is highly confident in its ability to reach an effective draw in other areas of the board, it will happily enter a line in the current area of play that only nets it a stone or two, rather than going for more material at the cost of uncertainty in the remaining areas in play.
- davedx 9y agoHow do you know that? A NN often maximizes its performance against a goal
- partycoder 9y agoDuring the first game against Lee Sedol commenters labeled many Alpha Go moves as "mistakes", as well as "slow". It wasn't until the end when they started seeing the results of those moves.
- bingojess 9y agoIt's been mentioned. Also when building the best Go bot would they try to maximise it's win rate instead of getting larger winning margins but winning less often?
- euyyn 9y agoFrom the explanations of how AlphaGo was architectured and trained: The goal being maximized isn't stone difference, rather probability of winning.
- 2bitencryption 9y ago> it will happily enter a line in the current area of play that only nets it a stone or two heck, it will enter a line of play that loses it a stone or two, as long as it considers that line of play to provide the highest board state values, and eventually a win.
- conanbatt 9y agoNeither do the players. As a player you maximize your chances of winning as well.
- wapz 9y agoAs an ex-go player (I pretty much stopped completely) I don't agree with your statement. You of course want to maximize your chances of winning but that means getting the most out of the current situation. If there's a play that you believe is a 10 point move and there's an 8 point move you're going to make the 10 point move 99% (probably 100% actually) of the time if they both keep initiative.
- tel 9y agoI'd play the 8 point move if I was ahead and it was more solid.
- echaozh 9y agoThe problem is you don't know if it's more solid. That's why people go for bigger wins with smaller probabilities, like lottery, or any gambling. Humans are not that good with probabilities.
- conanbatt 9y agoOnly if you assess the chance of winning is the same for both. A rich man doesnt pick a fight, says the proverb.
- jhall1468 9y agoThe problem is, AlphaGo can read the "chances for winning" vastly better than any human being. AlphaGo may calculate a "chance to win" of 99.6% to 99.5%, and it will then select the 99.6%, even if that's taking 8 over 10. A human simply can't do that. That "close" of a winning probability looks the same, even to a master at whatever game they are playing. This is literally why chess computers have gotten to the point that no one can beat them.
- ollin 9y agoMyungwan Kim 9d said white (AlphaGo) is probably a little bit ahead, if I heard correctly. But hopefully someone else has been following the AGA stream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFNgHXjIJo4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFNgHXjIJo4) more closely and can confirm/deny–I've been switching between the AGA and main streams, so I've only caught snippets. EDIT: probably around 10+ point lead for AlphaGo at this point according to Myungwan's stream.
- conanbatt 9y agoPersonally I like ke jie's position so far, but it looks even. The die has not been cast.
- alanfalcon 9y agoWas there a "move 37" type moment in this match for you? Or are all of AlphaGo's best tricks already "old hat" after the Master series?
- conanbatt 9y agoThe only surprising moves by AlphaGo were the slow-looking moves on the left, playing in Gote with a dead group. Other than that, there were no bot surprises.
- atrudeau 9y agoOk, so Michael Redmond just came on along with this other girl. He said AlphaGo made a few weird moves, but didn't give an opinion of which way the game is tending (though I felt from his tone that he thought Ke Jie might have a chance). The girl said she was following some Chinese players' group and the talk there was that the game was even.