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> And, as I recall, predictions were stated with far greater uncertainty. The bigger problem is people taking the upper bound of that uncertainty and concludin
by flukus 9y ago
> And, as I recall, predictions were stated with far greater uncertainty.
The bigger problem is people taking the upper bound of that uncertainty and concluding they were wrong because reality turned out to not be near the upper bound. Kind of like how political polls are "wrong", even when the result falls within the margin of error.
- mirimir 9y agoTrue. But some writers (even science writers) sensationalize by focusing on upper-bound estimates. And most people never see primary sources, even abstracts or executive summaries.
- flukus 9y agoIn headlines maybe, the articles almost always include phrases like "as early as 20xx" that communicate the uncertainty.