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Here is Brisbane, Australia, the property market for low-lying areas is still running hot. This is despite the flood of 2011 (which was so great it caused sea l

Here is Brisbane, Australia, the property market for low-lying areas is still running hot. This is despite the flood of 2011 (which was so great it caused sea levels to drop by as much as 7mm) which destroyed many of them, and the insurance companies have either refused to insure them or at very high premiums with low coverage. No one cares, they still vote for politicians who promise the coal jobs will come back and still burn coal for most of the electricity.

flukus 9y ago
That flood was from being a river valley, not from being low lying and coastal, coastal areas weren't affected. Toowoomba also flooded during that event, and that's on top of the great dividing range.
semi-extrinsic 9y ago
The 2011 floods were in areas next to rivers; indeed some of the worst hit towns are nowhere near the coast, no? When it comes to ocean rise, no-one is predicting a "Day After Tomorrow"-style flood wave. The scientific paper linked in TFA has 6 feet over the next 80 years as the worst case scenario. This is in line with most other estimates (e.g. from the IPCC). I'm as afraid of climate change as the next person, but sea level rise affecting rich coastal cities is so slow, so easily measured, so easy to engineer our way out of, and so obviously a net profitable endeavour to protect against, as compared to many of the other climate change threats like ocean acidification, large ecosystem collapses, food shortages etc. I don't understand how any sensible person can worry about sea level rise affecting western cities.
- nerdponx 9y ago
  Just judging by how mother nature has acted in the last few years, I suspect that sea level rise will be anything but gradual. I'm sure someone here on HN has a climate science background and can weigh in; but even though the sea level rise will take place over the course of 80 years, it seems reasonable that it would happen in fits and starts, i.e. catastrophic flooding every few years.
- xaedes 9y ago
  Glacial melting can have quite fast effects. For example when a glacial lake is building do to melting and the ice dam holding back all the water breaks. The content of the whole glacial lake can be swooped to the oceans in one flush. It doesn't even have to be melted water. Rivers under the ice due to melting ice can transport whole ice sheets to the coast and into the oceans. Carrying all the weight of the ice with it, into the oceans. Now the ice sheets have a MASSIVE weight that pushs on the whole antarctic continent. Releasing all that weight has an effect on the earth crust. Much less weight on the antarctic continent and overall more weight on the oceans. This will result in tensions in the earth crust. We know how these are released: Earth quakes. Earth quakes can also result in tsunamis. A lot of coastal cities are not really prepared for tsunamis. Just telling a story what CAN happen.
  - sveme 9y ago
    Indeed. The emergence of the black and baltic seas 8000 years ago were comparatively rapid events. Escapable, but extremely rapid. Jökulhaups can also have enormous and rapid effects, like the Missoula or Spokane floods.
wahlschweizer 9y ago
Here is Amsterdam, Holland, the property market for low-lying areas is still running hot since about 800 years and we are, not will be, 2 meters (7 foot in Freedom) under sealevel. [0] And about two thirds of the country is vulnerable to flooding, while the country is among the most densely populated on Earth. [1] Not trying to deny possible flooding by melting ice and expanding seawater, just saying (at least the Dutch) people tend to not care to much about "possible" "one day" "change of 1 in a 100" scenarios while the living is good. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amsterdam https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amsterdam [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_control_in_the_Netherlands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_control_in_the_Netherlan...
- mcv 9y ago
  Netherland absolutely takes flooding very seriously. After the 1953 flood, it was decided that that level of flooding should not happen more than once every 10,000 years. The Deltaworks [0] are the result of this. Sea level rise reduces the effectiveness of this coastal protection, so a lot more money is needed to improve the Deltaworks. Fortunately we're a rich country and we can afford it. But only up to a point. There's no way to protect Netherland against a 50 m sea level rise. So as global warming continues, this is going to cost us increasing amounts of money, and eventually our descendants are going to have to abandon this country anyway. Note that it was never about us drowning. It's about our grandchildren and further in the future. Unfortunately a lot of people have quite literally an "apres moi le deluge" attitude about this. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Works https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Works
- avar 9y ago
  I live in Amsterdam too. This meme that we're all under sealevel is common, but wrong. While literally true in some areas is extremely misleading in the context of a discussion about how rising sealevels impact world cities in general. Your Wikipedia source shows that the elevation goes as low as -2 meters, not that that's the mean elevation of the city. Here's an elevation map of Amsterdam: http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/ElevationMap/?gi=2759794 http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/ElevationMap/?gi=2759794 And here's one of The Netherlands: http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/CountryElevationMap/?ct=NL http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/CountryElevationMap/?ct=NL Now I happen to live -1 below in Amsterdam, but I'm the exception. Most of Amsterdam is above sealevel, the average seems to be around 6-10 meters above. But most importantly, the elevation profile of the entire country is one where the coast is much higher than sealevel, and then gradually slopes downwards to bits of the interior that are entirely landlocked, but are say 1 meter below sealevel. In other words we have pockets of land that are below sealevel, but they're surrounded by and protected by land that's not. There's pretty much zero overlap between where Amsterdam has been sited for the last 800 years and the areas that are anywhere near being under sealevel.
codecamper 9y ago
It's a lemming planet.

flukus 9y ago

That flood was from being a river valley, not from being low lying and coastal, coastal areas weren't affected. Toowoomba also flooded during that event, and that's on top of the great dividing range.

semi-extrinsic 9y ago

The 2011 floods were in areas next to rivers; indeed some of the worst hit towns are nowhere near the coast, no? When it comes to ocean rise, no-one is predicting a "Day After Tomorrow"-style flood wave. The scientific paper linked in TFA has 6 feet over the next 80 years as the worst case scenario. This is in line with most other estimates (e.g. from the IPCC). I'm as afraid of climate change as the next person, but sea level rise affecting rich coastal cities is so slow, so easily measured, so easy to engineer our way out of, and so obviously a net profitable endeavour to protect against, as compared to many of the other climate change threats like ocean acidification, large ecosystem collapses, food shortages etc. I don't understand how any sensible person can worry about sea level rise affecting western cities.

nerdponx 9y ago
Just judging by how mother nature has acted in the last few years, I suspect that sea level rise will be anything but gradual. I'm sure someone here on HN has a climate science background and can weigh in; but even though the sea level rise will take place over the course of 80 years, it seems reasonable that it would happen in fits and starts, i.e. catastrophic flooding every few years.
xaedes 9y ago
Glacial melting can have quite fast effects. For example when a glacial lake is building do to melting and the ice dam holding back all the water breaks. The content of the whole glacial lake can be swooped to the oceans in one flush. It doesn't even have to be melted water. Rivers under the ice due to melting ice can transport whole ice sheets to the coast and into the oceans. Carrying all the weight of the ice with it, into the oceans. Now the ice sheets have a MASSIVE weight that pushs on the whole antarctic continent. Releasing all that weight has an effect on the earth crust. Much less weight on the antarctic continent and overall more weight on the oceans. This will result in tensions in the earth crust. We know how these are released: Earth quakes. Earth quakes can also result in tsunamis. A lot of coastal cities are not really prepared for tsunamis. Just telling a story what CAN happen.
- sveme 9y ago
  Indeed. The emergence of the black and baltic seas 8000 years ago were comparatively rapid events. Escapable, but extremely rapid. Jökulhaups can also have enormous and rapid effects, like the Missoula or Spokane floods.

wahlschweizer 9y ago

Here is Amsterdam, Holland, the property market for low-lying areas is still running hot since about 800 years and we are, not will be, 2 meters (7 foot in Freedom) under sealevel. [0] And about two thirds of the country is vulnerable to flooding, while the country is among the most densely populated on Earth. [1] Not trying to deny possible flooding by melting ice and expanding seawater, just saying (at least the Dutch) people tend to not care to much about "possible" "one day" "change of 1 in a 100" scenarios while the living is good. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amsterdam https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amsterdam [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_control_in_the_Netherlands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_control_in_the_Netherlan...

mcv 9y ago
Netherland absolutely takes flooding very seriously. After the 1953 flood, it was decided that that level of flooding should not happen more than once every 10,000 years. The Deltaworks [0] are the result of this. Sea level rise reduces the effectiveness of this coastal protection, so a lot more money is needed to improve the Deltaworks. Fortunately we're a rich country and we can afford it. But only up to a point. There's no way to protect Netherland against a 50 m sea level rise. So as global warming continues, this is going to cost us increasing amounts of money, and eventually our descendants are going to have to abandon this country anyway. Note that it was never about us drowning. It's about our grandchildren and further in the future. Unfortunately a lot of people have quite literally an "apres moi le deluge" attitude about this. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Works https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Works
avar 9y ago
I live in Amsterdam too. This meme that we're all under sealevel is common, but wrong. While literally true in some areas is extremely misleading in the context of a discussion about how rising sealevels impact world cities in general. Your Wikipedia source shows that the elevation goes as low as -2 meters, not that that's the mean elevation of the city. Here's an elevation map of Amsterdam: http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/ElevationMap/?gi=2759794 http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/ElevationMap/?gi=2759794 And here's one of The Netherlands: http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/CountryElevationMap/?ct=NL http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/CountryElevationMap/?ct=NL Now I happen to live -1 below in Amsterdam, but I'm the exception. Most of Amsterdam is above sealevel, the average seems to be around 6-10 meters above. But most importantly, the elevation profile of the entire country is one where the coast is much higher than sealevel, and then gradually slopes downwards to bits of the interior that are entirely landlocked, but are say 1 meter below sealevel. In other words we have pockets of land that are below sealevel, but they're surrounded by and protected by land that's not. There's pretty much zero overlap between where Amsterdam has been sited for the last 800 years and the areas that are anywhere near being under sealevel.

codecamper 9y ago

It's a lemming planet.