4 ms·

Nothing wrong with a max of two kids. "According to some, zero population growth, perhaps after stabilizing at some optimum population, is the ideal towards wh

by eddyg 9y ago

Nothing wrong with a max of two kids. "According to some, zero population growth, perhaps after stabilizing at some optimum population, is the ideal towards which countries and the whole world should aspire in the interests of accomplishing long-term environmental sustainability." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_population_growth

swsieber 9y ago
But max 2 kids doesn't lead to to zero population growth - it leads to decline since not everybody gets married, or has the max number of children... But there are probably outiers who have more which even that out.
- rlanday 9y ago
  You might be living in a bubble if you think only married couples have kids; in the US, a whopping 40% of births are to unmarried parents: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/unmarried-childbearing.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/unmarried-childbearing.htm
  - swsieber 9y ago
    I definitely am living in a bubble and so it slipped my mind (but not originally from a bubble). That said... if we aren't talking about legislation, yeah, that makes it much more reasonable.
m23khan 9y ago
Incorrect - the fertility rate for a given population in order for that population to 'not decline' is 2.1 (not 2.0). In Canada, we are not even hitting the 2.0 mark (we are at 1.6). source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ca.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...
- harshreality 9y ago
  To save others from having to google it, the >2.0 rate (cited various places as a range, roughly 2.07-2.1) is due to two things: 1. The birth rate for males is usually (always?) slightly higher than for females, roughly 105:100, and the fertility rate for a stable population is the average number of children a woman has to have to replace herself, so the ratio disparity makes the needed replacement fertility rate slightly more than two. 2. Not all females survive and remain fertile through their child-bearing years. There are various environmental factors thought to cause variations in sex ratios by way of slight hormone variations, so one shouldn't expect the male:female ratio to be constant from region to region. Medical care and disease and mortality rates vary, too. So there's no single exact fertility rate for a stable population, but it's roughly 2.07-2.10 for developed countries.

by eddyg 9y ago

swsieber 9y ago

But max 2 kids doesn't lead to to zero population growth - it leads to decline since not everybody gets married, or has the max number of children... But there are probably outiers who have more which even that out.

rlanday 9y ago
You might be living in a bubble if you think only married couples have kids; in the US, a whopping 40% of births are to unmarried parents: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/unmarried-childbearing.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/unmarried-childbearing.htm
- swsieber 9y ago
  I definitely am living in a bubble and so it slipped my mind (but not originally from a bubble). That said... if we aren't talking about legislation, yeah, that makes it much more reasonable.

m23khan 9y ago

Incorrect - the fertility rate for a given population in order for that population to 'not decline' is 2.1 (not 2.0). In Canada, we are not even hitting the 2.0 mark (we are at 1.6). source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ca.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...

harshreality 9y ago
To save others from having to google it, the >2.0 rate (cited various places as a range, roughly 2.07-2.1) is due to two things: 1. The birth rate for males is usually (always?) slightly higher than for females, roughly 105:100, and the fertility rate for a stable population is the average number of children a woman has to have to replace herself, so the ratio disparity makes the needed replacement fertility rate slightly more than two. 2. Not all females survive and remain fertile through their child-bearing years. There are various environmental factors thought to cause variations in sex ratios by way of slight hormone variations, so one shouldn't expect the male:female ratio to be constant from region to region. Medical care and disease and mortality rates vary, too. So there's no single exact fertility rate for a stable population, but it's roughly 2.07-2.10 for developed countries.