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It will be interesting to see how long China's frenetic metro expansion lasts. Japan went through a very similar phase after the war, but this slowed down mark
by jpatokal 9y ago
It will be interesting to see how long China's frenetic metro expansion lasts. Japan went through a very similar phase after the war, but this slowed down markedly after the Bubble burst. With population growth now strongly negative, there's no business case for building more and Japan completed what's likely its last line a few years ago.
https://gyrovague.com/2015/12/18/the-last-subway-line-in-japan/ https://gyrovague.com/2015/12/18/the-last-subway-line-in-jap... (Disclaimer: my blog)
China, too, faces an upcoming and likely even more severe population crunch. India, on the other hand, is only just getting started and is now building metros with a similar pace as China in the 1990s.
- em500 9y agoJust the increase of the urbanization degree from the current 56% to 70% in 10 to 15 years, as currently planned by the government, will increase the city population by almost 200 million.
- ido 9y agoBut unlike Japan, isn't China's infrastructure still well below demand (there were some articles about 3+ hour commutes in greater Beijing posted to HN some months ago)? Even if demand will flatline and then slowly decline, they'd still need to build loads just to meet it adequately.