6 ms·

The Illusion of Competence

45 points by DiabloD3 9y ago

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
trendia 9y ago
Consider if every person thought he/she was in the 60%ile for some skill. Then, the best people would underestimate their skill and the worst would overestimate. This would produce the statistical results of the Dunning Kruger test, but I don't think that's nearly as exciting as what is claimed.
- cortesoft 9y ago
  I was thinking this as I read it, and the author seemed to be shocked that both extremes of the bell curve thought of themselves as being more average. That just seems logical, to assume you are average.
jimhefferon 9y ago
So, what does convince the least knowledgeable?
- zaptheimpaler 9y ago
  Social proof. A majority of people who believe X in their social circle. Unfortunately thats kind of a chicken and egg problem :P Or, get the majority to believe/trust one person on other grounds. Then he/she can convince them together and social proof stays intact if most of them accept most of the message. Sometimes the authority is an institution instead of a person like science, religion, nationalism.
- zorak 9y ago
  I have seen D-K written about in the context of beginner-experts; people that don't have more knowledgeable peers to help them see the limitations of what they know (think one-man IT team in a small company, or angry drunk Uncle rambling on about politics in the recliner). My observation is that D-K comes up in areas that people think are easy to understand (but are actually complex). Especially if the person comes from a domain with high perceived complexity. Example would be computer scientist discussing education or psychology... That seems to be ripe territory for D-K.
  - mcphage 9y ago
    > people that don't have more knowledgeable peers to help them see the limitations of what they know I've definitely met people like that; people who are used to being the smartest people in the room, and so when they make pronouncements without thinking long about a problem, everyone around them is used to assuming what they say is right, because they're smart. And once they're around other smart people, it's like talking to a brick wall—they're so used to everyone else accepting their bullshit, that they don't know how to handle being called on it, and they don't know how to defend their ideas because they've never had to before. Oy. Frustrating people.
rwmj 9y ago
"One study found that 80 per cent of drivers rate themselves as above average – a statistical impossibility" In a driving test, five drivers score 100, 100, 100, 100, 90. The average is 98, and so 80% of them are above average.
- lostcolony 9y ago
  It probably wasn't quantitative but qualitative, and of few choices, "rate your driving skills as one of the following: above average, below average, or average". In which case, yes, a statistical impossibility. But agreed, they're missing key context.
- dreamcompiler 9y ago
  Lay people confuse average with median. When you ask someone if they're "above average" they often assume you mean "in the top half of the population in ability" which is "above median." In which case 80% is impossible.
  - paulddraper 9y ago
    Agreed. I doubt anyone understands that to mean anything but median.
  - ranit 9y ago
    What you say might be true, but the article is written by "the editor in chief of Knowing Neurons and a PhD candidate in neuroscience at the University of California". It seems that not only lay people confuse statistics terms, but also the very people that make research and present the results. And this is sad ... and in line with the article in some sense.
    - zorak 9y ago
      I just want to be clear... Are you implying that the author doesn't understand the difference between different measures of central tendency?
zorak 9y ago
I wonder how expertise in one domain translates to D-K effect in other domains.
- Graziano_M 9y ago
  I'm a software engineer so I can confidently say that it does not.
jachee 9y ago
Ever since I learned about Dunning-Krueger, I've systematically questioned many things to which I would normally feel competence or expertise. It's basically redoubled my Imposter Syndrome. It's not crippling, but I often wonder: "Do I _actually_ know this? Do I know enough to know it if I don't?"

45 points by DiabloD3 9y ago

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

Consider if every person thought he/she was in the 60%ile for some skill. Then, the best people would underestimate their skill and the worst would overestimate. This would produce the statistical results of the Dunning Kruger test, but I don't think that's nearly as exciting as what is claimed.

cortesoft 9y ago
I was thinking this as I read it, and the author seemed to be shocked that both extremes of the bell curve thought of themselves as being more average. That just seems logical, to assume you are average.

jimhefferon 9y ago

So, what does convince the least knowledgeable?

zaptheimpaler 9y ago
Social proof. A majority of people who believe X in their social circle. Unfortunately thats kind of a chicken and egg problem :P Or, get the majority to believe/trust one person on other grounds. Then he/she can convince them together and social proof stays intact if most of them accept most of the message. Sometimes the authority is an institution instead of a person like science, religion, nationalism.
zorak 9y ago
I have seen D-K written about in the context of beginner-experts; people that don't have more knowledgeable peers to help them see the limitations of what they know (think one-man IT team in a small company, or angry drunk Uncle rambling on about politics in the recliner). My observation is that D-K comes up in areas that people think are easy to understand (but are actually complex). Especially if the person comes from a domain with high perceived complexity. Example would be computer scientist discussing education or psychology... That seems to be ripe territory for D-K.
- mcphage 9y ago
  > people that don't have more knowledgeable peers to help them see the limitations of what they know I've definitely met people like that; people who are used to being the smartest people in the room, and so when they make pronouncements without thinking long about a problem, everyone around them is used to assuming what they say is right, because they're smart. And once they're around other smart people, it's like talking to a brick wall—they're so used to everyone else accepting their bullshit, that they don't know how to handle being called on it, and they don't know how to defend their ideas because they've never had to before. Oy. Frustrating people.

rwmj 9y ago

"One study found that 80 per cent of drivers rate themselves as above average – a statistical impossibility" In a driving test, five drivers score 100, 100, 100, 100, 90. The average is 98, and so 80% of them are above average.

lostcolony 9y ago
It probably wasn't quantitative but qualitative, and of few choices, "rate your driving skills as one of the following: above average, below average, or average". In which case, yes, a statistical impossibility. But agreed, they're missing key context.
dreamcompiler 9y ago
Lay people confuse average with median. When you ask someone if they're "above average" they often assume you mean "in the top half of the population in ability" which is "above median." In which case 80% is impossible.
- paulddraper 9y ago
  Agreed. I doubt anyone understands that to mean anything but median.
- ranit 9y ago
  What you say might be true, but the article is written by "the editor in chief of Knowing Neurons and a PhD candidate in neuroscience at the University of California". It seems that not only lay people confuse statistics terms, but also the very people that make research and present the results. And this is sad ... and in line with the article in some sense.
  - zorak 9y ago
    I just want to be clear... Are you implying that the author doesn't understand the difference between different measures of central tendency?

zorak 9y ago

I wonder how expertise in one domain translates to D-K effect in other domains.

Graziano_M 9y ago
I'm a software engineer so I can confidently say that it does not.

jachee 9y ago

Ever since I learned about Dunning-Krueger, I've systematically questioned many things to which I would normally feel competence or expertise. It's basically redoubled my Imposter Syndrome. It's not crippling, but I often wonder: "Do I _actually_ know this? Do I know enough to know it if I don't?"