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I suspect almost 100% of the people who run the ECB and Fed do not understand Moravec's Paradox and Deep Learning - neither of which bode well for huge numbers

I suspect almost 100% of the people who run the ECB and Fed do not understand Moravec's Paradox and Deep Learning - neither of which bode well for huge numbers of white collar workers. College students, don't get comfortable. Your information processing based job is far more likely to become automated by programmers than that of a plumber or gardener.

sndean 9y ago
> Your information processing based job is far more likely to become automated by programmers than that of a plumber or gardener. It definitely seems that there's too much focus paid to the automation of transportation and the like, and even though those are going away, it's obvious a lot of white collar/office jobs are easier to automate away
- observation 9y ago
  "It’s also important to be patient. College is an investment that pays dividends over your entire working life. If you’re a new graduate, you’ve just incurred the upfront costs of this investment in your human capital, but you have many decades to go to reap the economic benefits of your college degree. " I must admit, that triggered me. I say that is by far a too comfortable assertion. > It definitely seems that there's too much focus paid to the automation of transportation and the like, and even though those are going away, it's obvious a lot of white collar/office jobs are easier to automate away Curiously under examined while the cries for basic income go on, often projected as help for the working/welfare classes. Where do these cries come from? The beleaguered middle classes. Maybe we should read between the lines. I strongly suspect a lot of middle income people don't have a Plan B more sophisticated than the truck driver (fleeing into the universities is a brainless move in most scenarios) and their incomes have been stagnant for a long time, so they're afraid of falling through the cracks. A just concern in my view. People who deal with a body of information can be just as entrenched in their habits as anybody else. Some blue collar will be automated of course, but the salient point is that nearly all blue collar labour was already automated in the Industrial Revolution. That which remains will be harder to automate. The most humble of jobs are incredibly frustrating for a robot to operate on economically in human oriented environments. I'd wager middle class jobs contain a large number of relatively high income but easy to automate tasks. This coupled with MP and deep learning, well you see the picture. I'm quite far from a technological utopian, but when Hinton states that radiologists should halt their training, he is not joking. https://youtu.be/2HMPRXstSvQ https://youtu.be/2HMPRXstSvQ Coincidentally I'm sure, he looks a bit like an undertaker in that clip!
  - sndean 9y ago
    > I'm quite far from a technological utopian, but when Hinton states that radiologists should halt their training, he is not joking. > https://youtu.be/2HMPRXstSvQ https://youtu.be/2HMPRXstSvQ Thanks for pointing to that clip. Hadn't seen that

sndean 9y ago

> Your information processing based job is far more likely to become automated by programmers than that of a plumber or gardener. It definitely seems that there's too much focus paid to the automation of transportation and the like, and even though those are going away, it's obvious a lot of white collar/office jobs are easier to automate away

observation 9y ago
"It’s also important to be patient. College is an investment that pays dividends over your entire working life. If you’re a new graduate, you’ve just incurred the upfront costs of this investment in your human capital, but you have many decades to go to reap the economic benefits of your college degree. " I must admit, that triggered me. I say that is by far a too comfortable assertion. > It definitely seems that there's too much focus paid to the automation of transportation and the like, and even though those are going away, it's obvious a lot of white collar/office jobs are easier to automate away Curiously under examined while the cries for basic income go on, often projected as help for the working/welfare classes. Where do these cries come from? The beleaguered middle classes. Maybe we should read between the lines. I strongly suspect a lot of middle income people don't have a Plan B more sophisticated than the truck driver (fleeing into the universities is a brainless move in most scenarios) and their incomes have been stagnant for a long time, so they're afraid of falling through the cracks. A just concern in my view. People who deal with a body of information can be just as entrenched in their habits as anybody else. Some blue collar will be automated of course, but the salient point is that nearly all blue collar labour was already automated in the Industrial Revolution. That which remains will be harder to automate. The most humble of jobs are incredibly frustrating for a robot to operate on economically in human oriented environments. I'd wager middle class jobs contain a large number of relatively high income but easy to automate tasks. This coupled with MP and deep learning, well you see the picture. I'm quite far from a technological utopian, but when Hinton states that radiologists should halt their training, he is not joking. https://youtu.be/2HMPRXstSvQ https://youtu.be/2HMPRXstSvQ Coincidentally I'm sure, he looks a bit like an undertaker in that clip!
- sndean 9y ago
  > I'm quite far from a technological utopian, but when Hinton states that radiologists should halt their training, he is not joking. > https://youtu.be/2HMPRXstSvQ https://youtu.be/2HMPRXstSvQ Thanks for pointing to that clip. Hadn't seen that