6 ms·
I think this is a story about working really fucking hard and then naturally having cool things come your way as a payoff. What you want might be 4 years away,
by gibbiv 9y ago
I think this is a story about working really fucking hard and then naturally having cool things come your way as a payoff. What you want might be 4 years away, but opportunities you don't think a lot about like this can be yet another motivator.
- mattmanser 9y agoJudging by the outcome, he's done a really great job on Silicon Valley. But you sound like you're falling for Survivorship bias.
- mysterydip 9y agoAgreed. There are plenty of people who work hard their entire career and don't get any kind of windfall. Of course there's a lifetime of choices and circumstances spicing up the mix so who can say how much is one vs the other, but the point is they are out there. I think the underlying point trying to be made though can be summed up by this quote from a movie clip I saw channel surfing in a hotel the other day: "You want the job after this job, but you need this job first."
- golergka 9y ago> Agreed. There are plenty of people who work hard their entire career and don't get any kind of windfall. There's a lot of talk about survivorship bias, but I have to admit, in 10 years that I've worked in game development, I've never seen anyone like that. Either people change careers, industries or you can see that they're already burned out. I've never seen a good performer with a lot of experience in the same field and career, and ambition for more, who would be stuck.
- alistairSH 9y agoSo, other than the ones that quit or burn-out, the success rate is high? That's almost the definition of survivorship bias.
- golergka 9y agoNo. Most of the people just don't really have high ambitions and are quite content as regular developers, designers and artists. They know that becoming a studio head or something like that means working 80 hours a week and no social life, for a long time, and they chose not to pursue this.
- trevyn 9y agoI think this is the problem: People expecting windfalls: "a large amount of money that is won or received unexpectedly." There exists a reasonably reliable path to success for most people: - Look at the people whom you consider to be successful who got there mostly through hard work. - Do what they did, think about the things they think about, obsess over it. Let it consume you. You won't be good at first, but keep doing it. It will take time. - Don't think you know better. - Try not to spend too much time or too many brain cycles on recreation or non-work-focused friendships/relationships. (If you choose to do this, that's fine, but recognize that it is a choice that will define your future.) That's about it.
- lotsofpulp 9y agoThat might work, assuming you grew up with a decent education, a stable home, in a safe environment with a supporting network of friends/family. Unfortunately, this does not apply for most people.
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- trevyn 9y agoI disagree. The thought that you have unique roadblocks is, in itself, disempowering.
- lotsofpulp 9y agoI agree with idea that one should not focus on what is holding them back, but I was responding to the claim that there is a reasonably reliable path to success for most people, in the sense that success conveys "a windfall" or otherwise making you financially secure and independent. However, there is no reliable path for a woman in Saudi Arabia, or poor child with drug addict parents, or the family of the lowest caste in India who have no assets. Surely they can help little by little and better their future generations, but they will by and large be gone before anyone gets a "windfall".
- 9y ago
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- lettersdigits 9y agoSurvivorship bias is by far my favorite bias
- noway421 9y agoNot all could agree
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- thomastjeffery 9y agoSounds like you're falling for the fallacy fallacy. Hard work pays off quite often. Hard work opens you up to opportunities quite often too, especially in an information-related career.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- elmigranto 9y ago> naturally having cool things come your way as a payoff You made a bunch of typos in "tremendous amount of luck" :)
- imron 9y agoLuck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
- rusk 9y agoThis sounds like an "operational" definition. A popular alternative is that luck is opportunity.
- eddiecalzone 9y agoChance favors the prepared mind.
- rusk 9y agoI love these aphorisms - but strictly speaking chance doesn't favour anything. Things just happen. With preparation you can set yourself to better exploit your luck and circumstances, you can even do things to increase the possibility of good fortune coming your way. But believing you will be lucky if you do the right things is little different from cargo cult philosophy - and is a footnote to the gamblers fallacy.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- imron 9y agoAnd many opportunities only arise after years of hard work in a given area.
- j_s 9y agoJason Roberts of TechZing coined the phrase "luck surface area".