I agree with you based on my intuition. I want to make a point that's not even a quibble with what you're doing (since you're working within fixed constraints)

I agree with you based on my intuition. I want to make a point that's not even a quibble with what you're doing (since you're working within fixed constraints) but I feel is worth raising anyways. The BLS data that I'm familiar with are not granular enough to decisively reach the conclusion that a college degree is still worth it. For example, the BLS data do not allow you to even begin to guess if colleges are merely admitting people who could have directly entered High Paying Job X even had they not attended college. Take Princeton, for example. Does a Princeton degree add income potential, or is it simply the case that people who get into Princeton are so smart that they have lots of income potential? The only way to conclusively know this is to identify people who were admitted to Princeton (and thus met their entry criteria) but decided not to go to college at all. (Even then, there would be selection bias here, since those choosing not to attend probably differ qualitatively from those who attended.) Then, look at standardized lifetime earnings of both cohorts. Do Princeton grads do better than Princeton admits who decided to forgo college? The best test would be a randomized controlled trial but... heh... that's just not going to happen since there's likely harm without likely benefit if you're in the no-college cohort.