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Here's the central issue for someone outside the CS industry: I have large scale, high value data in a competitive, highly regulated, exciting market, something
by killjoywashere 9y ago
Here's the central issue for someone outside the CS industry: I have large scale, high value data in a competitive, highly regulated, exciting market, something that bends GDP: defense, aerospace, healthcare, transportation. It's not like I got a bunch bored tweens in the Valley to share pics of their food. I have to sell my organization, which may be looking at a decade or more of data, that my CS collaborator can a) handle the data at scale, b) secure the data, c) hold on long enough to get to market. Because a couple years won't even get you to the FDA's or FAA's doorstep. NASA, DoD? FRA, NHTSA? You're looking at a 10 year lead time. You're looking at hosting tens of millions, hundreds of millions of dollars of data, running an equal amount of compute, and doing it for the next 10 years. Not the last 10 years. The next 10.
I can't, cannot, convince the org to bet the future on the ability and moral grounding of two random guys in a garage. They wouldn't even be able to wrap their heads around it, the difference in scales is too big: "You want to give our 10 PB of data to two guys in a garage? What? Get out. In fact, go get a new job, you're done here."
These deals are being signed by people who worry about capitalized words, like Gross National Product or Personal Health Information or Mars. We're talking orgs with tens of thousands of people who have committed their lives to a thing. We're not trying to use Dutch actions to steer 20-somethings in Orange County to the right sushi restaurant. Which is a sweet trick, don't get me wrong. But it's a bit different when we're trying to protect nations and their economies, and maybe just save the world or the human race.
Do you know what the US Government defines as "a large firm" for contracting purposes? 200 people. That's about right. You and I both know that those same two guys working for AFGAM are still the same two guys. But I need to contract with an entity wherein, if those guys I'm collaborating with go south, I have recourse with the Inc to keep the project on track. They can fire the guys, bring in new guys, subcontract some guys, whatever. But I've got to convince serious people that I can maintain a 10 year trajectory in a white hot, globally competitive market.
- dmoy 9y agoSomeone convinced the CIA to drop a big fraction of a billion dollars on AWS, like 3-4 years ago. So it appears to be within the realm of feasibility.
- killjoywashere 9y agoRight, AWS. Not a couple of guys building out a cluster in their garage. That's my whole point.
- nl 9y agoI'm not entirely clear what you are complaining about, but I can't, cannot, convince the org to bet the future on the ability and moral grounding of two random guys in a garage. sounds like a pretty reasonable stance for an organization to take? Enterprise sales takes lots of demos, trials on subsets of data, support arrangements, relationship building etc. NASA, DoD? FRA, NHTSA? You're looking at a 10 year lead time. DARPA programs have a fixed, 2 year span, and they aren't allowed to be renewed. It's deliver something in 2 years or fail. You and I both know that those same two guys working for AFGAM are still the same two guys. But it's not. Or at least those two people don't deliver a product, they deliver research outcomes, which then takes double the number of people to turn into reliable software, which then takes double that number of people to make deployable and run at scale, which then takes double that number of people to support. And then you need a sales team.
- killjoywashere 9y agoI'm not complaining, and I didn't say anything about DARPA. The parent was complaining that it's going to get harder to break into ML as a start-up. My point was to illustrate some of the reasons that big players want to play with other big players.
- nl 9y agoDARPA is DoD.
- killjoywashere 9y agoDARPA is a small fraction of DoD: it represents 3.6% of the R&D budget, and less than 0.5% of the total DoD budget.
- flukus 9y agoCould you set yourself up as an independent unit under a larger company?
- pas 9y agoSure, the US is not a fast mover in goverment innovation, and it has reasons to be conservative. (For example it's really big and complex [federal republic], and so on.) But there are smaller orgs (let's say Mexico, or Spain, or Greece, or just a town in Germany), they might try whatever they think helps them.