Sounds like an academic wants attention. The replacement rate for the consumer-fleet is, depending on who's counting, somewhere between 10.2[1] or 11.5 years (

Sounds like an academic wants attention. The replacement rate for the consumer-fleet is, depending on who's counting, somewhere between 10.2[1] or 11.5 years (can't share the source). So right there, the prediction requires millions of car owners to find more value in switching than the cost of 2.2+ car-years. Granted, network-effect pickup is not linear, but I have difficulty seeing how that happens. I still see commercial interstate transport as the first place we see real change, and would be surprised if eight years from now 50% of long-haul trucks are automated. The sunk costs in gasoline infrastructure are enormous, and I just don't see the countervailing pressure to force abandoning it without what I would consider frankly draconian legislation[2], and now. And you can guess my estimate of those odds. [1] https://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/study-shows-that-car-replacement-has-slowed/ https://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/study-shows-that... [2] For reference, I'm pretty far on the "you climate-denier morons are killing us all" side. I just don't see how you destroy that much wealth with anything not draconian.