3 ms·
He's right about the general direction things are going, but I don't think it'll go that fast, nowhere near that fast. Anyways, I like it. Cleaner air, and re
by pascalxus 9y ago
He's right about the general direction things are going, but I don't think it'll go that fast, nowhere near that fast. Anyways, I like it. Cleaner air, and reduced maintenance costs. As for gas powered cars disappearing completely, it remains to be seen if electric cars can compete with gas powered cars on price - electric still has a lot of work to do in this area.
Sounds like someone shorted the oil industry and is hoping to make a killing.
- _jal 9y agoSounds like an academic wants attention. The replacement rate for the consumer-fleet is, depending on who's counting, somewhere between 10.2[1] or 11.5 years (can't share the source). So right there, the prediction requires millions of car owners to find more value in switching than the cost of 2.2+ car-years. Granted, network-effect pickup is not linear, but I have difficulty seeing how that happens. I still see commercial interstate transport as the first place we see real change, and would be surprised if eight years from now 50% of long-haul trucks are automated. The sunk costs in gasoline infrastructure are enormous, and I just don't see the countervailing pressure to force abandoning it without what I would consider frankly draconian legislation[2], and now. And you can guess my estimate of those odds. [1] https://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/study-shows-that-car-replacement-has-slowed/ https://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/study-shows-that... [2] For reference, I'm pretty far on the "you climate-denier morons are killing us all" side. I just don't see how you destroy that much wealth with anything not draconian.
- nfriedly 9y agoI'm still driving a 2001 civic (if it ain't broke...), so I can believe an average of 10-11 years.