5 ms·

> when China with a combination of technical sophistication, developed local economy, and sheer population reaches parity and then surpasses the US as the new l

by pyre 9y ago

> when China with a combination of technical sophistication, developed local economy, and sheer population reaches parity and then surpasses the US as the new leader of the world I don't think that this is a foregone conclusion. In the 80's, Japan was going to take over the world too. While the situations aren't entirely equal, China has followed quite a bit of the Japanese playbook.

alphonsegaston 9y ago
I sincerely hope China doesn't follow Japan's trajectory. It has a large military and strong authoritarian, nationalist tendencies. Japan's conservatives certainly would have liked to "war" their way out of stagnantion (Abe Shinzo is still trying to do this), but their right to a military was largely dissolved as a client state of the US post-WWII. No such checks exist on China.
- lacampbell 9y ago
  Japan's conservatives certainly would have liked to "war" their way out of stagnantion (Abe Shinzo is still trying to do this) What war is Abe Shinzo trying to start? Is there some planned amphibious invasion of the Kurils I'm unaware of?
  - alphonsegaston 9y ago
    Abe Shinzo has been explicitly trying to rehabilitate Japan's imperial legacy the entire time he has been in power. He's tied to Nippon Kaigi, a group who believe, “Japan should be applauded for liberating much of East Asia from Western colonial powers, that the 1946-1948 Tokyo War Crimes tribunals were illegitimate, and that the killings by Imperial Japanese troops during the 1937 ‘Nanjing massacre’ were exaggerated or fabricated.” I think you can predict someone with that view of history's ambitions pretty clearly. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/opinion/tea-party-politics-in-japan.html https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/opinion/tea-party-politic...
    - hiram112 9y ago
      Considering the history of Japan, China, and the rest of East Asia, along with the apparent weariness of the US defense guarantee, nobody can blame Japan for wanting to begin strengthening itself militarily. They'd be stupid not to. While Japan does not have nuclear weapons at the moment (allegedly), it's assumed that they have the capabilities in place to weaponize themselves very quickly (months?) should the need arise.
      - flukus 9y ago
        > Considering the history of Japan, China, and the rest of East Asia, along with the apparent weariness of the US defense guarantee, nobody can blame Japan for wanting to begin strengthening itself militarily. They'd be stupid not to. Why? I'm not particular familar with the regions history, but from the last ~150 years or so China and Korea should be scared of Japan, not the other way around.
        deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
      - alphonsegaston 9y ago
        Stupid is what the conservatives have been doing for decades, namely leaning on their relationship with the US as an excuse to take a grotesque stance towards their own history. Japan, had it followed a similar course as Germany, could have reconciled themselves with the countries they tried to conquer and built a true economic union with Taiwan, Korea, and others in the region, which would have acted as a true check on a rising China. Instead, and admittedly with the encouragement of the US, they took a "temporarily embarrassed imperial" stance, cultivated an irrational and racist belief in their own inherent economic superiority, alienated their neighbors, and gave China an international relations scapegoat for anytime it was useful. The idea that they're some victim of Chinese circumstances with rising militarism as their only option ignores the decades of short-sighted conservative policy that put them in such a vulnerable position.
        9y ago
- vtange 9y ago
  You'll need proof about Japanese militarism. Many in Japan disagree with the country's rearmament [1]. Even Chinese people find Japanese people less nationalistic than they are in recent days [2]. Though for some reason they still think Japan is a warlike/violent country. [1] http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/10/31/japanese-back-global-engagement-despite-concern-about-domestic-economy/ http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/10/31/japanese-back-global-eng... [2] http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/09/13/hostile-neighbors-china-vs-japan/ http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/09/13/hostile-neighbors-china-...
  - alphonsegaston 9y ago
    Yes, I should have made more clear that I meant the Japanese government, not its people. But since Japan has not been a functional democracy since at least the 70s, the point still stands. In the post-war period, the US government has been actively subverting the Japanese left by providing political intel and financing to Japanese conservatives, who are the successors to imperial-era fascist regime. Abe's grandfather was even a war criminal administrator of the Japanese puppet state in Manchuria. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2006/07/20/national/u-s-admits-cia-gave-ldp-money-in-1950s-1960s/ http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2006/07/20/national/u-s-adm...
- ionised 9y ago
  > I sincerely hope China doesn't follow Japan's trajectory. It has a large military and strong authoritarian, nationalist tendencies You know that describes the US too?
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
lacampbell 9y ago
A lot of people are only capable for extrapolating current trends indefinitely into the future. China has been growing, why won't it continue to grow forever? I also think media is desperate for their to be another super power, or some kind of cold war, so they project this onto the best candidate.
- mistermann 9y ago
  This sounds a lot like the misunderstood "correlation != causation" meme that people are so fond of.
tormeh 9y ago
If China ever becomes as rich as Japan, i.e. GDP per capita becomes equal to what Japan has now, then China's GDP will be 52.6 trillion USD. The US has 18.6. China following Japan's example would make the US be to China what Belgium is currently to Russia (at least in terms of total economic strength).
- mistermann 9y ago
  And this is today's lame duck Japan, not the powerhouse it was. Most people don't truly appreciate the scope of China's size. They may know the number, but they don't intuitively understand it when thinking.

by pyre 9y ago

alphonsegaston 9y ago

I sincerely hope China doesn't follow Japan's trajectory. It has a large military and strong authoritarian, nationalist tendencies. Japan's conservatives certainly would have liked to "war" their way out of stagnantion (Abe Shinzo is still trying to do this), but their right to a military was largely dissolved as a client state of the US post-WWII. No such checks exist on China.

lacampbell 9y ago
Japan's conservatives certainly would have liked to "war" their way out of stagnantion (Abe Shinzo is still trying to do this) What war is Abe Shinzo trying to start? Is there some planned amphibious invasion of the Kurils I'm unaware of?
- alphonsegaston 9y ago
  Abe Shinzo has been explicitly trying to rehabilitate Japan's imperial legacy the entire time he has been in power. He's tied to Nippon Kaigi, a group who believe, “Japan should be applauded for liberating much of East Asia from Western colonial powers, that the 1946-1948 Tokyo War Crimes tribunals were illegitimate, and that the killings by Imperial Japanese troops during the 1937 ‘Nanjing massacre’ were exaggerated or fabricated.” I think you can predict someone with that view of history's ambitions pretty clearly. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/opinion/tea-party-politics-in-japan.html https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/opinion/tea-party-politic...
  - hiram112 9y ago
    Considering the history of Japan, China, and the rest of East Asia, along with the apparent weariness of the US defense guarantee, nobody can blame Japan for wanting to begin strengthening itself militarily. They'd be stupid not to. While Japan does not have nuclear weapons at the moment (allegedly), it's assumed that they have the capabilities in place to weaponize themselves very quickly (months?) should the need arise.
    - flukus 9y ago
      > Considering the history of Japan, China, and the rest of East Asia, along with the apparent weariness of the US defense guarantee, nobody can blame Japan for wanting to begin strengthening itself militarily. They'd be stupid not to. Why? I'm not particular familar with the regions history, but from the last ~150 years or so China and Korea should be scared of Japan, not the other way around.
      - deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
    - alphonsegaston 9y ago
      Stupid is what the conservatives have been doing for decades, namely leaning on their relationship with the US as an excuse to take a grotesque stance towards their own history. Japan, had it followed a similar course as Germany, could have reconciled themselves with the countries they tried to conquer and built a true economic union with Taiwan, Korea, and others in the region, which would have acted as a true check on a rising China. Instead, and admittedly with the encouragement of the US, they took a "temporarily embarrassed imperial" stance, cultivated an irrational and racist belief in their own inherent economic superiority, alienated their neighbors, and gave China an international relations scapegoat for anytime it was useful. The idea that they're some victim of Chinese circumstances with rising militarism as their only option ignores the decades of short-sighted conservative policy that put them in such a vulnerable position.
      - 9y ago
vtange 9y ago
You'll need proof about Japanese militarism. Many in Japan disagree with the country's rearmament [1]. Even Chinese people find Japanese people less nationalistic than they are in recent days [2]. Though for some reason they still think Japan is a warlike/violent country. [1] http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/10/31/japanese-back-global-engagement-despite-concern-about-domestic-economy/ http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/10/31/japanese-back-global-eng... [2] http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/09/13/hostile-neighbors-china-vs-japan/ http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/09/13/hostile-neighbors-china-...
- alphonsegaston 9y ago
  Yes, I should have made more clear that I meant the Japanese government, not its people. But since Japan has not been a functional democracy since at least the 70s, the point still stands. In the post-war period, the US government has been actively subverting the Japanese left by providing political intel and financing to Japanese conservatives, who are the successors to imperial-era fascist regime. Abe's grandfather was even a war criminal administrator of the Japanese puppet state in Manchuria. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2006/07/20/national/u-s-admits-cia-gave-ldp-money-in-1950s-1960s/ http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2006/07/20/national/u-s-adm...
ionised 9y ago
> I sincerely hope China doesn't follow Japan's trajectory. It has a large military and strong authoritarian, nationalist tendencies You know that describes the US too?
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]

lacampbell 9y ago

A lot of people are only capable for extrapolating current trends indefinitely into the future. China has been growing, why won't it continue to grow forever? I also think media is desperate for their to be another super power, or some kind of cold war, so they project this onto the best candidate.

mistermann 9y ago
This sounds a lot like the misunderstood "correlation != causation" meme that people are so fond of.

tormeh 9y ago

If China ever becomes as rich as Japan, i.e. GDP per capita becomes equal to what Japan has now, then China's GDP will be 52.6 trillion USD. The US has 18.6. China following Japan's example would make the US be to China what Belgium is currently to Russia (at least in terms of total economic strength).

mistermann 9y ago
And this is today's lame duck Japan, not the powerhouse it was. Most people don't truly appreciate the scope of China's size. They may know the number, but they don't intuitively understand it when thinking.