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The prediction is also dependent on mass adoption of self-driving cars (as the only plausible way that existing internal-combustion cars would end up scrapped e

by serhei 9y ago

The prediction is also dependent on mass adoption of self-driving cars (as the only plausible way that existing internal-combustion cars would end up scrapped en masse in such a short timeframe). The timeframe for that is still unknown and dependent on societal/regulatory factors in addition to getting the technology right. It's safe to bet that regulatory factors will move slow.

Someone 9y ago
From the article: "Prof Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1m miles." If things move that fast, chances are cities start banning all internal combustion engines, as some already do for older diesels. The average citizen wouldn't feel that bad about that, as it would clean city air, and _renting_ an electric car probably would be cheaper than driving one with an internal combustion engine. So, _if_ that's true, 'most vehicles will be electric', for me, isn't out of the question. 'All', I would call highly unlikely. I doubt that million mile lifespan, though, especially for the batteries. Edit: forgot to add that this heading is not what the report says. It starts "We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by eets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport- as-a-service” (TaaS)." That's five more years, 5% less, and not a percentage of _cars_, but of passenger miles. That leaves plenty of room for 20% or so gasoline cars rarely driven but kept for old time's sake, used by those who rarely drive, or used in the countryside.
Fricken 9y ago
2025 sounds a little ambitious to me, pretty much everything would have to go right for that to happen, but the regulatory gears are turning pretty hard now, and they were set in motion years ago, first by Google beginning in 2012, but now by every major automaker and they've been lobbying pretty hard. https://www.enotrans.org/article/washington-preparing-action-automated-vehicles/ https://www.enotrans.org/article/washington-preparing-action... Personally, I think if anything delays the adoption of electric robotaxis to anywhere near the degree Tony Seba is anticipating, it will be battery production capacity. Tesla, with their gigafactory is the only company that's really serious about anticipating that kind of demand, and western manufacturers be in competition with China for all the raw materials needed to mass produce batteries at that scale. That's where I'm anticipating the biggest hangups.

by serhei 9y ago

Someone 9y ago

From the article: "Prof Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1m miles." If things move that fast, chances are cities start banning all internal combustion engines, as some already do for older diesels. The average citizen wouldn't feel that bad about that, as it would clean city air, and _renting_ an electric car probably would be cheaper than driving one with an internal combustion engine. So, _if_ that's true, 'most vehicles will be electric', for me, isn't out of the question. 'All', I would call highly unlikely. I doubt that million mile lifespan, though, especially for the batteries. Edit: forgot to add that this heading is not what the report says. It starts "We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by eets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport- as-a-service” (TaaS)." That's five more years, 5% less, and not a percentage of _cars_, but of passenger miles. That leaves plenty of room for 20% or so gasoline cars rarely driven but kept for old time's sake, used by those who rarely drive, or used in the countryside.

Fricken 9y ago

2025 sounds a little ambitious to me, pretty much everything would have to go right for that to happen, but the regulatory gears are turning pretty hard now, and they were set in motion years ago, first by Google beginning in 2012, but now by every major automaker and they've been lobbying pretty hard. https://www.enotrans.org/article/washington-preparing-action-automated-vehicles/ https://www.enotrans.org/article/washington-preparing-action... Personally, I think if anything delays the adoption of electric robotaxis to anywhere near the degree Tony Seba is anticipating, it will be battery production capacity. Tesla, with their gigafactory is the only company that's really serious about anticipating that kind of demand, and western manufacturers be in competition with China for all the raw materials needed to mass produce batteries at that scale. That's where I'm anticipating the biggest hangups.