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All vehicles will be electric by 2025, says expert

4 points by kimsk112 9y ago

kimsk112 9y ago
This is a link that is not required you to be a member: http://www.afr.com/business/energy/oil/petrol-cars-will-vanish-in-8-years-says-us-report-from-stanford-economist-20170514-gw4r0u http://www.afr.com/business/energy/oil/petrol-cars-will-vani...
DamonHD 9y ago
Clickbait really: I don't think even the most ardent EV fan would claim that suddenly all (new) fossil cars will be forbidden and that the infrastructure for recharging will magically available everywhere, or that the grids would be happy with such a quick change in usage patterns! Still, would be good at face value.
- serhei 9y ago
  The prediction is also dependent on mass adoption of self-driving cars (as the only plausible way that existing internal-combustion cars would end up scrapped en masse in such a short timeframe). The timeframe for that is still unknown and dependent on societal/regulatory factors in addition to getting the technology right. It's safe to bet that regulatory factors will move slow.
  - Someone 9y ago
    From the article: "Prof Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1m miles." If things move that fast, chances are cities start banning all internal combustion engines, as some already do for older diesels. The average citizen wouldn't feel that bad about that, as it would clean city air, and _renting_ an electric car probably would be cheaper than driving one with an internal combustion engine. So, _if_ that's true, 'most vehicles will be electric', for me, isn't out of the question. 'All', I would call highly unlikely. I doubt that million mile lifespan, though, especially for the batteries. Edit: forgot to add that this heading is not what the report says. It starts "We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by eets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport- as-a-service” (TaaS)." That's five more years, 5% less, and not a percentage of _cars_, but of passenger miles. That leaves plenty of room for 20% or so gasoline cars rarely driven but kept for old time's sake, used by those who rarely drive, or used in the countryside.
  - Fricken 9y ago
    2025 sounds a little ambitious to me, pretty much everything would have to go right for that to happen, but the regulatory gears are turning pretty hard now, and they were set in motion years ago, first by Google beginning in 2012, but now by every major automaker and they've been lobbying pretty hard. https://www.enotrans.org/article/washington-preparing-action-automated-vehicles/ https://www.enotrans.org/article/washington-preparing-action... Personally, I think if anything delays the adoption of electric robotaxis to anywhere near the degree Tony Seba is anticipating, it will be battery production capacity. Tesla, with their gigafactory is the only company that's really serious about anticipating that kind of demand, and western manufacturers be in competition with China for all the raw materials needed to mass produce batteries at that scale. That's where I'm anticipating the biggest hangups.
- kimsk112 9y ago
  It's hard to say about the timeline (1st iPhone was introduced just 10 years ago), but we could see the trend with existing and upcoming technologies. Everyone probably remember what happen to film camera, CD, etc.
compsciphd 9y ago
I don't understand these articles zero marginal cost in fuel? Take a chevy volt (I have one, so speaking from experience). it takes over 20kwh of electricity to fully charge (there's at least 10% loss) and get a bit over 50 miles on charge. Lets equate this to a prius, that gets about 50mpg. the cheapest electricity rates in the bay area is about 11.5 cents kwh. or if it takes 20kwh to charge, one is looking at at least $2.30 to "Fill it up". That's not much cheaper than it costs to go 50 miles in a prius. If gasoline prices crater (as the article expects), it make gas cars even more affordable. Now arguably the electrical generation can be better for the environment than the car itself burning gas, but the argument on fuel costs seems very weak.

4 points by kimsk112 9y ago

This is a link that is not required you to be a member: http://www.afr.com/business/energy/oil/petrol-cars-will-vanish-in-8-years-says-us-report-from-stanford-economist-20170514-gw4r0u http://www.afr.com/business/energy/oil/petrol-cars-will-vani...

DamonHD 9y ago

Clickbait really: I don't think even the most ardent EV fan would claim that suddenly all (new) fossil cars will be forbidden and that the infrastructure for recharging will magically available everywhere, or that the grids would be happy with such a quick change in usage patterns! Still, would be good at face value.

serhei 9y ago
The prediction is also dependent on mass adoption of self-driving cars (as the only plausible way that existing internal-combustion cars would end up scrapped en masse in such a short timeframe). The timeframe for that is still unknown and dependent on societal/regulatory factors in addition to getting the technology right. It's safe to bet that regulatory factors will move slow.
- Someone 9y ago
  From the article: "Prof Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1m miles." If things move that fast, chances are cities start banning all internal combustion engines, as some already do for older diesels. The average citizen wouldn't feel that bad about that, as it would clean city air, and _renting_ an electric car probably would be cheaper than driving one with an internal combustion engine. So, _if_ that's true, 'most vehicles will be electric', for me, isn't out of the question. 'All', I would call highly unlikely. I doubt that million mile lifespan, though, especially for the batteries. Edit: forgot to add that this heading is not what the report says. It starts "We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by eets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport- as-a-service” (TaaS)." That's five more years, 5% less, and not a percentage of _cars_, but of passenger miles. That leaves plenty of room for 20% or so gasoline cars rarely driven but kept for old time's sake, used by those who rarely drive, or used in the countryside.
- Fricken 9y ago
  2025 sounds a little ambitious to me, pretty much everything would have to go right for that to happen, but the regulatory gears are turning pretty hard now, and they were set in motion years ago, first by Google beginning in 2012, but now by every major automaker and they've been lobbying pretty hard. https://www.enotrans.org/article/washington-preparing-action-automated-vehicles/ https://www.enotrans.org/article/washington-preparing-action... Personally, I think if anything delays the adoption of electric robotaxis to anywhere near the degree Tony Seba is anticipating, it will be battery production capacity. Tesla, with their gigafactory is the only company that's really serious about anticipating that kind of demand, and western manufacturers be in competition with China for all the raw materials needed to mass produce batteries at that scale. That's where I'm anticipating the biggest hangups.
kimsk112 9y ago
It's hard to say about the timeline (1st iPhone was introduced just 10 years ago), but we could see the trend with existing and upcoming technologies. Everyone probably remember what happen to film camera, CD, etc.

compsciphd 9y ago

I don't understand these articles zero marginal cost in fuel? Take a chevy volt (I have one, so speaking from experience). it takes over 20kwh of electricity to fully charge (there's at least 10% loss) and get a bit over 50 miles on charge. Lets equate this to a prius, that gets about 50mpg. the cheapest electricity rates in the bay area is about 11.5 cents kwh. or if it takes 20kwh to charge, one is looking at at least $2.30 to "Fill it up". That's not much cheaper than it costs to go 50 miles in a prius. If gasoline prices crater (as the article expects), it make gas cars even more affordable. Now arguably the electrical generation can be better for the environment than the car itself burning gas, but the argument on fuel costs seems very weak.