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They wont be good enough for light-field-based mixed-reality computing just like command line computers weren't good enough for GUIs. How many more computers w

by jp555 9y ago

They wont be good enough for light-field-based mixed-reality computing just like command line computers weren't good enough for GUIs. How many more computers will we probably buy before mixed-reality jumps the chasm and goes mainstream? I don't think it's more than 2.

TheOtherHobbes 9y ago
I think you're right, but at the current rate of progress it's going to take a while to get there. We're currently in the modern equivalent of the mid-90s DOS plateau, where an experience that's actually quite mediocre has become the default user expectation. Getting past this requires an order of magnitude increase in processor power. Given what's happening in hardware that seems unlikely any time soon. It's more likely tablets will gradually catch up and merge with desktops - but there won't be any dramatic change in the UX offered by either. That needs speed and UI technologies that are at least a generation away. The new UX will come from voice, AI, and robotics, which will make computing more physically interactive, and less tied to the glass typewriter/document library model.
- jp555 9y ago
  I largely agree, although I think mixed-reality will be the new UX, with voice & AI being a big part of it as well. But we may need 2 orders of magnitude in GPU/Watt performance before light-field glasses replace 2D screens. Given the gargantuan data/compression requirements of light-fields (Lytro's cameras capture >300GB/sec of lightfield data!!!), plus rendering, persistent SLAM, etc, we'll need the power of a GTX1080Ti or better, but able to run flat out using only 1-3Watts of power instead of ~250W. The good news is this is what the global smartphone manufacturing ecosystem is working towards, with a relatively short device life-cycle to finance the huge effort that will be required to get there. But mid to late 2020s will be all about mixed reality. I am convinced that it will be so incredibly compelling, that any 2D screen, no matter the size, resolution, dynamic range, or refresh rate, will be like command line compared to GUI today.
digi_owl 9y ago
And yet what do we see time and time again, tiling UIs used to multiplex CLIs. When we really want to get things done with a computer, we keep coming back to the keyboard and the CLI. Even high end math/design/engineering packages have a CLI in them.
- Zelizz 9y ago
  I think that is because, at their core, computers parse language (be it computer or human). At some point you need to input that language, which is a task keyboards and command-lines excel at. It's the lowest common denominator, so it will always exist. At the same time, there are ways that you can program a computer that do not rely on pure text input. We've already seen things like Scratch, GameMaker, and Unreal Engine's blueprint system explode in popularity. When the tools are built, people will use them, and they can supplant the previous paradigm. I think there are advantages VR/MR can have for simple text input, too. I would love to have a virtual work environment where my files live in "physical" locations, where I can visit them as if they were sheets of paper or trinkets, arranging files or bits of code in front of me into graphs I can walk around and draw on like a whiteboard.

by jp555 9y ago

TheOtherHobbes 9y ago

I think you're right, but at the current rate of progress it's going to take a while to get there. We're currently in the modern equivalent of the mid-90s DOS plateau, where an experience that's actually quite mediocre has become the default user expectation. Getting past this requires an order of magnitude increase in processor power. Given what's happening in hardware that seems unlikely any time soon. It's more likely tablets will gradually catch up and merge with desktops - but there won't be any dramatic change in the UX offered by either. That needs speed and UI technologies that are at least a generation away. The new UX will come from voice, AI, and robotics, which will make computing more physically interactive, and less tied to the glass typewriter/document library model.

jp555 9y ago
I largely agree, although I think mixed-reality will be the new UX, with voice & AI being a big part of it as well. But we may need 2 orders of magnitude in GPU/Watt performance before light-field glasses replace 2D screens. Given the gargantuan data/compression requirements of light-fields (Lytro's cameras capture >300GB/sec of lightfield data!!!), plus rendering, persistent SLAM, etc, we'll need the power of a GTX1080Ti or better, but able to run flat out using only 1-3Watts of power instead of ~250W. The good news is this is what the global smartphone manufacturing ecosystem is working towards, with a relatively short device life-cycle to finance the huge effort that will be required to get there. But mid to late 2020s will be all about mixed reality. I am convinced that it will be so incredibly compelling, that any 2D screen, no matter the size, resolution, dynamic range, or refresh rate, will be like command line compared to GUI today.

digi_owl 9y ago

And yet what do we see time and time again, tiling UIs used to multiplex CLIs. When we really want to get things done with a computer, we keep coming back to the keyboard and the CLI. Even high end math/design/engineering packages have a CLI in them.

Zelizz 9y ago
I think that is because, at their core, computers parse language (be it computer or human). At some point you need to input that language, which is a task keyboards and command-lines excel at. It's the lowest common denominator, so it will always exist. At the same time, there are ways that you can program a computer that do not rely on pure text input. We've already seen things like Scratch, GameMaker, and Unreal Engine's blueprint system explode in popularity. When the tools are built, people will use them, and they can supplant the previous paradigm. I think there are advantages VR/MR can have for simple text input, too. I would love to have a virtual work environment where my files live in "physical" locations, where I can visit them as if they were sheets of paper or trinkets, arranging files or bits of code in front of me into graphs I can walk around and draw on like a whiteboard.