There are a lot of such events looming in the improbable horizon. Each would be viewed as a total surprise when in fact it's known that there is a nonzero (but

There are a lot of such events looming in the improbable horizon. Each would be viewed as a total surprise when in fact it's known that there is a nonzero (but small) probability of the event occurring: - a moderately sized meteorite strikes a major city. - the capital requirements set after the recent financial crisis might turn out to be horribly inadequate if just the right series of coincidences occurs. - The US could have significant post-election riots, etc. - With a slight increase in trauma injuries, all ERs and available hospital beds and skilled professionals could be quickly used up within a 1000 mile radius of an event. Many would die in transit, etc. Think back to the superdome. - A significantly noteworthy event could easily overwhelm mobile phone network capacity in any major city making communication nearly impossible, this would be made worse due to the panic that it inspired. - An unsophisticated terrorist group could bring mass transit in the top 5 major US cities to a standstill for a budget of less than $10K. (simply by igniting backpacks full of regular gasoline in buses, subways in some sort of unison). This would probably provoke martial law. - The US could elect a Hitler-esque strongman. Both Bush and Obama are shades of this sort of leader in their own way. That anyone (especially the media) took McCain's candidacy seriously is evidence of this. - Mexico could become a failed state, putting pressure on the US, and sending the US toward a nationalistic strongman leader type.