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I feel like Lyft is the underdog coming back to strike the killer blow to Uber... The year Uber has had I wouldn't be surprised to see them disappear altogether

I feel like Lyft is the underdog coming back to strike the killer blow to Uber... The year Uber has had I wouldn't be surprised to see them disappear altogether by 2018/2019. Lyft seems to be doing things a lot better, but helps that their CEO isn't out starting fires instead of putting them out.

melling 10y ago
I'd just like to point out that we really don't want to Uber to die. The market will be healthier if Uber and lift are both successful.
- BinaryIdiot 10y ago
  Why? Are you thinking of competition in general? Because there is a lot of that in ride sharing just nothing as big as the two juggernauts in America.
  - swsieber 10y ago
    I think competition in general for self driving cars, not for ride sharing.
    - BinaryIdiot 10y ago
      Then the loss of Uber won't matter. Basically every car manufacturer is looking at this along with countless others. The market for self driving vehicles is so, so tiny and new that literally any (and many) could jump in and "win".
- williamsmj 10y ago
  Nah, we really do want them to die. Couldn't happen to a nicer company. If it's competition you're concerned about: they have a well documented record of sabotaging their competition, rather than winning on merits. They're not good for the market they are in, which is bad for all of us. There are also some other reasons we want them to die, relating to their being an abusive employer, which I'd like to think would have consequences for their reputation in our community.
  - grkhetan 9y ago
    I wouldnt want Uber to die. They were one who created the ride-sharing market and the industry fighting against all outdated regulations. They may have done "sabotaging" their competition once several years ago -- there's no record of them having done it in the last 2-3 years. Btw, Lyft also has done similar stuff.
    - dralley 9y ago
      The corporate espionage against Waymo happened in the past year.
    - williamsmj 9y ago
      Um, the article discusses an ongoing court case accusing them of industrial espionage last year, which may result in criminal prosecution.
      - rogerdonaldson 9y ago
        I dont see Uber itself having done it. Levandowski was the one who downloaded the documents when he was a Google engineer. It has not been proven and is very unlikely that Uber asked him to download the documents or knew about it. If Uber did not know that he downloaded documents, then I dont see how Uber did the wrong thing here. In fact, Google's Java lawsuit with Sun/Oracle seemed worse for Google to me, as Google empployees openly discussed in emails that they were violating licensing terms and still did it.
- slackingoff2017 10y ago
  Nah. Uber and Lyft have left several cities that passed regulations they didn't like. In the case of Austin TX specifically there's now more choices of ridesharing services with significant market share, not less. The drivers also get paid better. I think it's abundantly clear at this point that both Lyft and Uber use monopolistic anti competitive tactics.
- princeb 9y ago
  i don't want uber to die because subsidized fares are wonderful.
sikosmurf 10y ago
Interesting. I feel like there is no way Uber would be on the brink of bankruptcy and not be able to fundamentally change the problems that have persisted so far. I guess what I'm getting at is that a company valued at 69 billion dollars going out of business in less than 2 years should be a surprise to everyone.
- goobynight 10y ago
  Would they run the coffers dry though? The answer might be yes and I'd go with yes, but if they're for some reason on what they see as a death spiral, they could return some investor money and call it quits.
  - htormey 10y ago
    Agreed. I imagine a more likely scenario is they slam on the breaks by raising prices and firing a bunch of people before they run out of money. This of course would tank the companies valuation and result in a big decline in ride traffic. I'd be really surprised to see uber completely go away. I think the worst case scenario would be for them to go public and have their valuation impload, I.e a groupon like outcome.
- ianamartin 10y ago
  A company fueled entirely by venture capital that has no proven ability to make a profit, valued at 69 billion dollars should be a surprise to everyone.
- mikeg8 10y ago
  The surprise to me is the craziness of that valuation to begin with. And if they were able to make "fundamental changes", why wouldn't they have done it by now? Seems like the path to change will be more difficult with the loss of top execs, low internal morale, and difficulty hiring top talent moving forward. Maybe out of business in 2 years is agressive, but 5 years? Wouldn't surprise me at all.
  - bigbugbag 9y ago
KaoruAoiShiho 10y ago
Lyft - Uber might be a Facebook - MySpace story.
- hn_throwaway_99 10y ago
  Actually, it's on a smaller scale but I was thinking a "Digg - Reddit" analogy was more appropriate. Reddit was much smaller than Digg for years: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2005-06-01%202011-06-30&q=digg,reddit https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2005-06-01%202... . Reddit was definitely "the little engine that could" for about 6 years, but it was really in 2010 when Digg imploded with the self-inflicted wounds of Digg v4 when Reddit really took off. In other words, MySpace losing to Facebook seemed largely because Facebook just had a better product (cleaner, focused on real identities), while Digg, like Uber, largely was the victim of self-inflicted wounds.
  - aantix 10y ago
    I mentioned the Digg vs Reddit analogy in relation to Uber/Lyft about a month ago... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14054803 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14054803
  - bigbugbag 9y ago
    I remember differently, the release of digg v4 was the last nail in the digg coffing and the tipping point happened about a year before that with the famous ncomment 'Digg vs Reddit' webcomics. When this got to digg front page, well, let's say it was right on point. Sorry, I know flickr sucks but it seems ncomment original website is now gone, the comics survived on flickr: https://www.flickr.com/photos/25036088@N06/sets/72157615924666317 https://www.flickr.com/photos/25036088@N06/sets/721576159246...
    - hn_throwaway_99 9y ago
      You maybe could argue the shift started earlier, but the floodgates really opened on Digg v4. I was one of the "Digg refugees" who joined reddit at that time, and there were hoards of others that did the same.
puranjay 10y ago
Uber has monumentally pissed off its driver pool in India. They came out with huge incentives, told drivers that if they "invested" in the company by buying cars, they would benefit even more. Now there are drivers who bought their cars and have car loans to pay. But Uber stopped the incentive spigot and suddenly drivers are earning half of what they were making earlier. Most drivers I speak to here are struggling to pay off their car loans. Some have resorted to sleeping in their cars and driving 12-18 hours a day just to make ends meet (not ideal for drivers or passengers). The moment someone comes in with even a remotely better offer, most of them will jump ship.
- jpatokal 10y ago
  Uber has serious competition in India in the form of Ola -- and most drivers seem equally unhappy with both. https://qz.com/908802/uber-and-ola-drivers-in-india-are-now-aggressively-demanding-better-pay-and-working-conditions/ https://qz.com/908802/uber-and-ola-drivers-in-india-are-now-...

melling 10y ago

I'd just like to point out that we really don't want to Uber to die. The market will be healthier if Uber and lift are both successful.

BinaryIdiot 10y ago
Why? Are you thinking of competition in general? Because there is a lot of that in ride sharing just nothing as big as the two juggernauts in America.
- swsieber 10y ago
  I think competition in general for self driving cars, not for ride sharing.
  - BinaryIdiot 10y ago
    Then the loss of Uber won't matter. Basically every car manufacturer is looking at this along with countless others. The market for self driving vehicles is so, so tiny and new that literally any (and many) could jump in and "win".
williamsmj 10y ago
Nah, we really do want them to die. Couldn't happen to a nicer company. If it's competition you're concerned about: they have a well documented record of sabotaging their competition, rather than winning on merits. They're not good for the market they are in, which is bad for all of us. There are also some other reasons we want them to die, relating to their being an abusive employer, which I'd like to think would have consequences for their reputation in our community.
- grkhetan 9y ago
  I wouldnt want Uber to die. They were one who created the ride-sharing market and the industry fighting against all outdated regulations. They may have done "sabotaging" their competition once several years ago -- there's no record of them having done it in the last 2-3 years. Btw, Lyft also has done similar stuff.
  - dralley 9y ago
    The corporate espionage against Waymo happened in the past year.
  - williamsmj 9y ago
    Um, the article discusses an ongoing court case accusing them of industrial espionage last year, which may result in criminal prosecution.
    - rogerdonaldson 9y ago
      I dont see Uber itself having done it. Levandowski was the one who downloaded the documents when he was a Google engineer. It has not been proven and is very unlikely that Uber asked him to download the documents or knew about it. If Uber did not know that he downloaded documents, then I dont see how Uber did the wrong thing here. In fact, Google's Java lawsuit with Sun/Oracle seemed worse for Google to me, as Google empployees openly discussed in emails that they were violating licensing terms and still did it.
slackingoff2017 10y ago
Nah. Uber and Lyft have left several cities that passed regulations they didn't like. In the case of Austin TX specifically there's now more choices of ridesharing services with significant market share, not less. The drivers also get paid better. I think it's abundantly clear at this point that both Lyft and Uber use monopolistic anti competitive tactics.
princeb 9y ago
i don't want uber to die because subsidized fares are wonderful.

sikosmurf 10y ago

Interesting. I feel like there is no way Uber would be on the brink of bankruptcy and not be able to fundamentally change the problems that have persisted so far. I guess what I'm getting at is that a company valued at 69 billion dollars going out of business in less than 2 years should be a surprise to everyone.

goobynight 10y ago
Would they run the coffers dry though? The answer might be yes and I'd go with yes, but if they're for some reason on what they see as a death spiral, they could return some investor money and call it quits.
- htormey 10y ago
  Agreed. I imagine a more likely scenario is they slam on the breaks by raising prices and firing a bunch of people before they run out of money. This of course would tank the companies valuation and result in a big decline in ride traffic. I'd be really surprised to see uber completely go away. I think the worst case scenario would be for them to go public and have their valuation impload, I.e a groupon like outcome.
ianamartin 10y ago
A company fueled entirely by venture capital that has no proven ability to make a profit, valued at 69 billion dollars should be a surprise to everyone.
mikeg8 10y ago
The surprise to me is the craziness of that valuation to begin with. And if they were able to make "fundamental changes", why wouldn't they have done it by now? Seems like the path to change will be more difficult with the loss of top execs, low internal morale, and difficulty hiring top talent moving forward. Maybe out of business in 2 years is agressive, but 5 years? Wouldn't surprise me at all.
- bigbugbag 9y ago

KaoruAoiShiho 10y ago

Lyft - Uber might be a Facebook - MySpace story.

hn_throwaway_99 10y ago
Actually, it's on a smaller scale but I was thinking a "Digg - Reddit" analogy was more appropriate. Reddit was much smaller than Digg for years: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2005-06-01%202011-06-30&q=digg,reddit https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2005-06-01%202... . Reddit was definitely "the little engine that could" for about 6 years, but it was really in 2010 when Digg imploded with the self-inflicted wounds of Digg v4 when Reddit really took off. In other words, MySpace losing to Facebook seemed largely because Facebook just had a better product (cleaner, focused on real identities), while Digg, like Uber, largely was the victim of self-inflicted wounds.
- aantix 10y ago
  I mentioned the Digg vs Reddit analogy in relation to Uber/Lyft about a month ago... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14054803 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14054803
- bigbugbag 9y ago
  I remember differently, the release of digg v4 was the last nail in the digg coffing and the tipping point happened about a year before that with the famous ncomment 'Digg vs Reddit' webcomics. When this got to digg front page, well, let's say it was right on point. Sorry, I know flickr sucks but it seems ncomment original website is now gone, the comics survived on flickr: https://www.flickr.com/photos/25036088@N06/sets/72157615924666317 https://www.flickr.com/photos/25036088@N06/sets/721576159246...
  - hn_throwaway_99 9y ago
    You maybe could argue the shift started earlier, but the floodgates really opened on Digg v4. I was one of the "Digg refugees" who joined reddit at that time, and there were hoards of others that did the same.

puranjay 10y ago

Uber has monumentally pissed off its driver pool in India. They came out with huge incentives, told drivers that if they "invested" in the company by buying cars, they would benefit even more. Now there are drivers who bought their cars and have car loans to pay. But Uber stopped the incentive spigot and suddenly drivers are earning half of what they were making earlier. Most drivers I speak to here are struggling to pay off their car loans. Some have resorted to sleeping in their cars and driving 12-18 hours a day just to make ends meet (not ideal for drivers or passengers). The moment someone comes in with even a remotely better offer, most of them will jump ship.

jpatokal 10y ago
Uber has serious competition in India in the form of Ola -- and most drivers seem equally unhappy with both. https://qz.com/908802/uber-and-ola-drivers-in-india-are-now-aggressively-demanding-better-pay-and-working-conditions/ https://qz.com/908802/uber-and-ola-drivers-in-india-are-now-...