4 ms·

Undoubtedly the market for ride sharing built with autonomous vehicles will afford for multiple winners -- but this certainly looks like a strong contender for

by scep12 9y ago

Undoubtedly the market for ride sharing built with autonomous vehicles will afford for multiple winners -- but this certainly looks like a strong contender for the first.

Moshe_Silnorin 9y ago
I think it will be a commodity market. Not excited as an investor, very excited as a customer though.
- avaer 9y ago
  If it's a commodity like telecoms -- and not like rice -- then I'm not too excited as a consumer either.
  - CaliforniaKarl 9y ago
    Then maybe "commodity" isn't the right word. Maybe "utility"? Or, in the future, "monopoly"?
  - ju-st 9y ago
    Telecoms do have a natural monopoly, ride sharing does not.
- BinaryIdiot 9y ago
  I agree. Ultimately no one is going to be able to produce and maintain a car cheaper than a car manufacturing company so I feel like the eventual "winner" is going to be someone either partnered with, or is, a car manufacturer. Tesla is positioning itself super well for this. GM seems to be on its way as well especially with their past interest in Lyft?
  - goobynight 9y ago
    How has Tesla positioned itself super well. Didn't they...just recently figure out that factories are more difficult than cars? Or will they be a partner? Please clarify.
    - BinaryIdiot 9y ago
      Tesla has working, autonomous software running on vehicles in the real world gathering real data that can be used to improve. They're also a car manufacturer. They didn't "just recently figure out factories are more difficult than cars" but even if they did the market is so immature for self driving that they would have several years to build up manufacturing capabilities. It wouldn't matter.
      - edshiro 9y ago
        Not true. Tesla has working advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in the form of their "Autopilot" feature. This is as Level 2 (out of 5) on the autonomy scale. They are still very very far from Level 5. Much more so than Google. Furthermore, they were getting their software from MobilEye, an Israel-based startup but cut ties with them last year and are developing their own Autopilot 2 program, which so far has not reached parity with MobilEye's Autopilot 1. Still a long way to go and will be interesting to see whether they catch up to Google with all this crowdsourced data they collect.
        BinaryIdiot 9y ago
        > Not true I'm not sure what you're referring to here. Autonomous, by definition, covers their autopilot feature as well as level 4 autonomy. I never said they have level 4 or 5 autonomy... > Furthermore, they were getting their software from MobilEye, an Israel-based startup but cut ties with them last year and are developing their own Autopilot 2 program, which so far has not reached parity with MobilEye's Autopilot 1. I'm not sure it's useful to compare anything Tesla does with MobilEye's capability. Now I don't know if they've transitioned off of it yet or not but during their corporate spat after that fatal crash last year [1] Tesla said they used additional software and hardware to augment MobilEye's capabilities. [1] http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-autopilot-fatal-crash-mobileye-2016-9 http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-autopilot-fatal-crash-m...
      - dagw 9y ago
        Tesla has working, autonomous software running on vehicles in the real world gathering real data that can be used to improve. Tesla has pretty good driver assist software that they claim, without evidence, can be used for self driving. But then again everybody has driver assist software and everybody is currently building self driving cars. The big question is can Tesla learn to build reasonably priced, reliable cars at scale faster than for example Volvo can perfect their self driving technology. Because we already know that Volvo can build cars and meet production goals.

by scep12 9y ago

Undoubtedly the market for ride sharing built with autonomous vehicles will afford for multiple winners -- but this certainly looks like a strong contender for the first.

Moshe_Silnorin 9y ago

I think it will be a commodity market. Not excited as an investor, very excited as a customer though.

avaer 9y ago
If it's a commodity like telecoms -- and not like rice -- then I'm not too excited as a consumer either.
- CaliforniaKarl 9y ago
  Then maybe "commodity" isn't the right word. Maybe "utility"? Or, in the future, "monopoly"?
- ju-st 9y ago
  Telecoms do have a natural monopoly, ride sharing does not.
BinaryIdiot 9y ago
I agree. Ultimately no one is going to be able to produce and maintain a car cheaper than a car manufacturing company so I feel like the eventual "winner" is going to be someone either partnered with, or is, a car manufacturer. Tesla is positioning itself super well for this. GM seems to be on its way as well especially with their past interest in Lyft?
- goobynight 9y ago
  How has Tesla positioned itself super well. Didn't they...just recently figure out that factories are more difficult than cars? Or will they be a partner? Please clarify.
  - BinaryIdiot 9y ago
    Tesla has working, autonomous software running on vehicles in the real world gathering real data that can be used to improve. They're also a car manufacturer. They didn't "just recently figure out factories are more difficult than cars" but even if they did the market is so immature for self driving that they would have several years to build up manufacturing capabilities. It wouldn't matter.
    - edshiro 9y ago
      Not true. Tesla has working advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in the form of their "Autopilot" feature. This is as Level 2 (out of 5) on the autonomy scale. They are still very very far from Level 5. Much more so than Google. Furthermore, they were getting their software from MobilEye, an Israel-based startup but cut ties with them last year and are developing their own Autopilot 2 program, which so far has not reached parity with MobilEye's Autopilot 1. Still a long way to go and will be interesting to see whether they catch up to Google with all this crowdsourced data they collect.
      - BinaryIdiot 9y ago
        > Not true I'm not sure what you're referring to here. Autonomous, by definition, covers their autopilot feature as well as level 4 autonomy. I never said they have level 4 or 5 autonomy... > Furthermore, they were getting their software from MobilEye, an Israel-based startup but cut ties with them last year and are developing their own Autopilot 2 program, which so far has not reached parity with MobilEye's Autopilot 1. I'm not sure it's useful to compare anything Tesla does with MobilEye's capability. Now I don't know if they've transitioned off of it yet or not but during their corporate spat after that fatal crash last year [1] Tesla said they used additional software and hardware to augment MobilEye's capabilities. [1] http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-autopilot-fatal-crash-mobileye-2016-9 http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-autopilot-fatal-crash-m...
    - dagw 9y ago
      Tesla has working, autonomous software running on vehicles in the real world gathering real data that can be used to improve. Tesla has pretty good driver assist software that they claim, without evidence, can be used for self driving. But then again everybody has driver assist software and everybody is currently building self driving cars. The big question is can Tesla learn to build reasonably priced, reliable cars at scale faster than for example Volvo can perfect their self driving technology. Because we already know that Volvo can build cars and meet production goals.