4 ms·

That is just rubbing salt in the self inflicted wounds. I think that this could probably be the first real danger for Uber, especially if their self driving ca

That is just rubbing salt in the self inflicted wounds. I think that this could probably be the first real danger for Uber, especially if their self driving cars effort is killed. The major costs in taxi operation are fuel and humans. Electricity solves the first, self driving second. And they can even escape regulation if they present themselves as ultra short term rent a car service.

prostoalex 9y ago
> The major costs in taxi operation are fuel and humans. What about vehicles themselves?
- BigJono 9y ago
  It'd be a factor, but not a major one. Say you expect to spend $30,000 on the car and $20,000 on repairs over a lifetime of 10 years (that's probably well on the high side, say you picked out a shitbox that always breaks down). At $15/h wage and $50/week in petrol, running the car 40 hours a week (probably on the low side, a lot of taxi drivers I know have 2-3 drivers to a car and would run it more like 120 hours), you're looking at $195,000 in wage/petrol expenses over those 10 years. Almost 4x the total cost of the car.
  - BinaryIdiot 9y ago
    > It'd be a factor, but not a major one. I disagree. I think it's going to be everything. Not because people are cheap but they're going to be eliminated in this space regardless (so it's not even an argument). A car manufacturer is going to have lower costs to making and maintaining a car than any non car manufacturer. Every ride sharing service will eventually become driverless so car manufacturers will be able to provide an equivalent service at a lower price.
    - notatoad 9y ago
      You're assuming that transit is a business that car manufacturers want to be involved in, which would be a big shift. They've got a nice secure position right now, regardless of which ride-sharing app is trending. Why would they want to shift from their high-margin B2B sales market to a low-margin consumer service market?
      - BinaryIdiot 9y ago
        > Why would they want to shift from their high-margin B2B sales market to a low-margin consumer service market? I'm not convinced that market is going to exist forever. If self driving cars do take off then you're going to see more people owning less cars. Cars will get consolidated to large companies and they won't have a need for as many. GM has talked with Lyft a number of times and most car manufacturers seem to be working on self driving systems. I think it's a move they'll have to make over the next decade or so.
  - prostoalex 9y ago
    The lifetime of a vehicle is better expressed in terms of miles, not years, and for most models probably ends up being close to 200,000 miles. While a generic vehicle owned by an average family will take 10 years to reach that, a for-hire vehicle gets quite a bit more mileage. One expense that people tend to leave out is the cleaning, both on the inside and outside. Someone has to take care of those car washes, and while cheap, they add up. With the driverless model I see those expenses increasing, as without a chaperon passengers are more likely to eat, drink, puke, and in general misbehave (source: I've been inside some BART and LA Metro cars).
    - pg314 9y ago
      > With the driverless model I see those expenses increasing, as without a chaperon passengers are more likely to eat, drink, puke, and in general misbehave (source: I've been inside some BART and LA Metro cars). You're anonymous in a metro, you won't be in a driverless car. They can charge you for the clean-up.
- saulrh 9y ago
  Car costs $30k-$60k lifetime (repairs and such). Not many taxi services run luxury vehicles. Paying a single person full-time probably runs $30k-$40k/year, and you're probably running two to keep the duty cycle up. Gas is probably another $10k/year. Car lasts, what, five or ten years? Fifteen if you're careful and buy for reliability? Yes, people and fuel are the most expensive components.
  - maxerickson 9y ago
    New York City cabs seem to stay in service about 6 years, with 400,000+ miles on them at that point.
    - elvirs 9y ago
      400k miles, damn.
      - goobynight 9y ago
        Not to mention those are city miles, so the engine has been running for quite a long time.
        elvirs 9y ago
        i guess its safe to say those cars have hit a few million nyc potholes in their lifetime
    - speedplane 9y ago
      Based on the NYC taxis I see roaming the streets, I'd guess that they last longer than six years. Plenty of cars look 10+ years or older. I'd guess that that the average age of a NYC taxi is around six years.
      - maxerickson 9y ago
        The NYC 2014 Taxicab Factbook (a real thing) gives the average age as 3.3 years: http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/2014_taxicab_fact_book.pdf http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/2014_taxicab_fact_... It could be somewhat higher now but I doubt it has doubled. (I had just glanced at https://www.quora.com/How-many-miles-does-a-NYC-taxi-do-in-its-life-as-a-taxi https://www.quora.com/How-many-miles-does-a-NYC-taxi-do-in-i... for my previous post)
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]

prostoalex 9y ago

> The major costs in taxi operation are fuel and humans. What about vehicles themselves?

BigJono 9y ago
It'd be a factor, but not a major one. Say you expect to spend $30,000 on the car and $20,000 on repairs over a lifetime of 10 years (that's probably well on the high side, say you picked out a shitbox that always breaks down). At $15/h wage and $50/week in petrol, running the car 40 hours a week (probably on the low side, a lot of taxi drivers I know have 2-3 drivers to a car and would run it more like 120 hours), you're looking at $195,000 in wage/petrol expenses over those 10 years. Almost 4x the total cost of the car.
- BinaryIdiot 9y ago
  > It'd be a factor, but not a major one. I disagree. I think it's going to be everything. Not because people are cheap but they're going to be eliminated in this space regardless (so it's not even an argument). A car manufacturer is going to have lower costs to making and maintaining a car than any non car manufacturer. Every ride sharing service will eventually become driverless so car manufacturers will be able to provide an equivalent service at a lower price.
  - notatoad 9y ago
    You're assuming that transit is a business that car manufacturers want to be involved in, which would be a big shift. They've got a nice secure position right now, regardless of which ride-sharing app is trending. Why would they want to shift from their high-margin B2B sales market to a low-margin consumer service market?
    - BinaryIdiot 9y ago
      > Why would they want to shift from their high-margin B2B sales market to a low-margin consumer service market? I'm not convinced that market is going to exist forever. If self driving cars do take off then you're going to see more people owning less cars. Cars will get consolidated to large companies and they won't have a need for as many. GM has talked with Lyft a number of times and most car manufacturers seem to be working on self driving systems. I think it's a move they'll have to make over the next decade or so.
- prostoalex 9y ago
  The lifetime of a vehicle is better expressed in terms of miles, not years, and for most models probably ends up being close to 200,000 miles. While a generic vehicle owned by an average family will take 10 years to reach that, a for-hire vehicle gets quite a bit more mileage. One expense that people tend to leave out is the cleaning, both on the inside and outside. Someone has to take care of those car washes, and while cheap, they add up. With the driverless model I see those expenses increasing, as without a chaperon passengers are more likely to eat, drink, puke, and in general misbehave (source: I've been inside some BART and LA Metro cars).
  - pg314 9y ago
    > With the driverless model I see those expenses increasing, as without a chaperon passengers are more likely to eat, drink, puke, and in general misbehave (source: I've been inside some BART and LA Metro cars). You're anonymous in a metro, you won't be in a driverless car. They can charge you for the clean-up.
saulrh 9y ago
Car costs $30k-$60k lifetime (repairs and such). Not many taxi services run luxury vehicles. Paying a single person full-time probably runs $30k-$40k/year, and you're probably running two to keep the duty cycle up. Gas is probably another $10k/year. Car lasts, what, five or ten years? Fifteen if you're careful and buy for reliability? Yes, people and fuel are the most expensive components.
- maxerickson 9y ago
  New York City cabs seem to stay in service about 6 years, with 400,000+ miles on them at that point.
  - elvirs 9y ago
    400k miles, damn.
    - goobynight 9y ago
      Not to mention those are city miles, so the engine has been running for quite a long time.
      - elvirs 9y ago
        i guess its safe to say those cars have hit a few million nyc potholes in their lifetime
  - speedplane 9y ago
    Based on the NYC taxis I see roaming the streets, I'd guess that they last longer than six years. Plenty of cars look 10+ years or older. I'd guess that that the average age of a NYC taxi is around six years.
    - maxerickson 9y ago
      The NYC 2014 Taxicab Factbook (a real thing) gives the average age as 3.3 years: http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/2014_taxicab_fact_book.pdf http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/2014_taxicab_fact_... It could be somewhat higher now but I doubt it has doubled. (I had just glanced at https://www.quora.com/How-many-miles-does-a-NYC-taxi-do-in-its-life-as-a-taxi https://www.quora.com/How-many-miles-does-a-NYC-taxi-do-in-i... for my previous post)
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]