2 ms·

Most of you aren't trying hard enough to come up with things we'll PROBABLY live to see: 1. California earthquake 2. global economic depression 3. war involv

by istari 16y ago

Most of you aren't trying hard enough to come up with things we'll PROBABLY live to see: 1. California earthquake 2. global economic depression 3. war involving developed countries(N Korea vs S Korea, India vs Pakistan, Iran vs Israel, China vs Taiwan, etc) 4. 2 leading into 3(maybe) 5. pandemic 6. The Next Big Thing(biotech? nanotech?) 7. car accident resulting in serious injuries involving yourself or a loved one 8. serious illness involving yourself or a loved one

btilly 16y ago
Let me add a scary possibility, the use of a nuclear bomb on a major city. It is worth noting that India and Pakistan have fought several recent wars, and are now both nuclear armed. Worse yet, everyone's wargame simulations have concluded that their next war WILL go nuclear. As one friend of mine (whose father is high up in India's air force) put it, "The only real question is whether the bomb that Pakistan drops on New Delhi works." To be specific, the likely scenario is that they go to war, Pakistan, lacking reserves, knows it has to win fast. Pakistan throws everything into the battle front, India breaks through somewhere, and Pakistan, with nothing to stop India's breakthrough, drops a nuke on Indian troops in Pakistani territory. (There is a perverse logic to having all of the civilian casualties be your own.) India, having just lost major numbers of troops, has little choice but to escalate to nuclear war against Pakistani military targets. Pakistan, with a more limited supply of nukes, has only one way to escalate. And New Delhi is the easiest to reach major city. There is speculation that the last military coup in Pakistan happened in part because the Pakistani army was scared that Pakistan was escalating into another war with India, and it was the easiest way to force the situation to de-escalate.

by istari 16y ago

btilly 16y ago

Let me add a scary possibility, the use of a nuclear bomb on a major city. It is worth noting that India and Pakistan have fought several recent wars, and are now both nuclear armed. Worse yet, everyone's wargame simulations have concluded that their next war WILL go nuclear. As one friend of mine (whose father is high up in India's air force) put it, "The only real question is whether the bomb that Pakistan drops on New Delhi works." To be specific, the likely scenario is that they go to war, Pakistan, lacking reserves, knows it has to win fast. Pakistan throws everything into the battle front, India breaks through somewhere, and Pakistan, with nothing to stop India's breakthrough, drops a nuke on Indian troops in Pakistani territory. (There is a perverse logic to having all of the civilian casualties be your own.) India, having just lost major numbers of troops, has little choice but to escalate to nuclear war against Pakistani military targets. Pakistan, with a more limited supply of nukes, has only one way to escalate. And New Delhi is the easiest to reach major city. There is speculation that the last military coup in Pakistan happened in part because the Pakistani army was scared that Pakistan was escalating into another war with India, and it was the easiest way to force the situation to de-escalate.