4 ms·
Sure, it's not impossible, but there's a powerful alliance of political and economic forces that will do their utmost to prevent this from happening. I can onl
by walrus1066 9y ago
Sure, it's not impossible, but there's a powerful alliance of political and economic forces that will do their utmost to prevent this from happening.
I can only see three scenarios where prices fall materially:
a) big interest rate hike (I believe this caused the 89 crash)
b) massive increase in homebuilding (250k+ p/a, sustained)
c) mass emigration out of the UK.
I really doubt a) will happen, the BOE is loathe to raise rates as our household debt is 90% of GDP, twice what it was in 1990, our economy wouldn't handle it, our banks would be insolvent as they have <5% capital. Inflation would need to be double digits before the BOE's hand is forced.
b) also very unlikely. Homeowners make up the biggest voting block, a huge vested interest group. The green belt is a sacred cow. Every time the govt hints at liberalising the planning system, the mail+telegraph kick up a 'hands off our land' campaign.
c) maybe if brexit goes really badly, but we'd be in a true economic catastrophe if this happens. Probably wouldn't have a job with which to pay for cheaper housing.
- tonyedgecombe 9y ago"Sure, it's not impossible" I'd say it's inevitable, the only question is when.