8 ms·

> So either way we have to plan for rolling mass unemployment. Interestingly, each time we have lost jobs, we have diversified into many more types of jobs tha

> So either way we have to plan for rolling mass unemployment. Interestingly, each time we have lost jobs, we have diversified into many more types of jobs that cannot be swept away with a single automation breakthrough. ~90% of workforce were once farmers and almost every single one of them lost their job when mechanization came. Now, with self-driving cars, we are worried about the ~2% of the workforce who drive for a living. That is already a big change from the past, and each iteration how shown that a smaller and smaller portion of the workforce will be affected by automation at any given point in time. That is not to say that everyone will go unscathed, but mass unemployment becomes less and less likely.

autokad 9y ago
> ~90% of workforce were once farmers and almost every single one of them lost their job when mechanization came It was very easy to go from one job to the other. weather it needs to be required or not, many jobs today effectively require 20 years of education (12+ school, 4 undergrad, 2 masters, 2 years experience). we talk about coal mining jobs going away as if they should have seen it coming, but tech can also be vulnerable. people forget what it was like to search for a tech job even years after the 2001 bubble burst. also, the reason why people are worried about automation isn't the number of people effected by each iteration. it was widely accepted automation would destroy jobs and more than what was destroyed would come. the 2001 and 2008 recession seems to indicate that is becoming less true. i would categorize those recessions as mass unemployment, thus mass unemployment is not becoming less and less likely.
- valuearb 9y ago
  Virtually zero jobs require 20 years of education or degrees, 99% of jobs can be learned with a boot camp.
  - sumoboy 9y ago
    I sure don't want any of that 99% being a doctor or lawyer just finishing a boot camp.
    - spacelizard 9y ago
      I do. There are all kinds of things wrong with requiring 20 years of study just to be able to have a chance to do a job properly. If done properly, we can reduce that time significantly.
      - andrewflnr 9y ago
        I'm inclined to agree about lawyers, but for medicine I'm pretty sure there just is that much to learn.
        maxerickson 9y ago
        I imagine most doctors would be just fine as doctors if they graduated from high school at age 16 and also skipped 1 year (maybe 2) of undergrad. A great way to spend more money on education would be to target lowering high school graduation age to 17, with at least a year of training oriented education for students that weren't interested in an academic track and a faster academic track for students that did want it. The idea that everybody gets value out of Algebra II is pretty confused and at my Big 10 university, I often knew more history on days I hadn't done the reading than most of the people in my discussion class (that is, our "well prepared" high school students aren't coming out of high school well rounded anyway, lets drop the pretense).
    - adpirz 9y ago
      Boot camp is hyperbole for medicine, but the medical field itself is beginning to recognize (at least in the US) that the path to becoming a physician is much longer than need be, especially given the shortage we have especially for GPs.
      - c0nfused 9y ago
        My impression is that the medical field is mostly increasing the number of new MDs but not the number of residency slots. This means that soon medical school will end up like law school where you can get a law degree but not a job. You need at least a year of residency to be able to practice medicine in any state, to get a real job you need to finish. http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/266610-shortage-of-residency-slots-may-have-chilling-effect-on-next http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/266610-sho...
  - ashark 9y ago
    I recently composed an email for someone with a degree in mathematics but little experience with computers, outlining what they'd need to do to bridge the gab between their current position and someone with a degree or strong self-taught skills in CS. When I started I thought it'd be fairly short. It wasn't, and much of the difference wasn't theoretical CS stuff—it was "stupid computer shit". Tools, the command line, daemons, implementation details for a dozen key technologies, debuggers, and on and on and on. I think I'd underestimated how much all that time I'd spent futzing with DOS to make my games work, or playing with operating systems, or running a message board for my friends, and so on, had provided the foundation for my success as a developer. The hours weren't spent optimally, but they were spent in great quantity, and most people didn't grow up with that kind of running head-start into the industry. It's a giant hurdle to overcome.
    - autokad 9y ago
      that's exactly what i meant =)
- LoSboccacc 9y ago
  We're also pushing the pension date by 5 year every 5, so there's that. Zero mobility upward, load pressure from newcomers and if you happen to leave the job after your peak at 50 - real or percieved peak - you've mostly unemployment left as a life prospect

autokad 9y ago

> ~90% of workforce were once farmers and almost every single one of them lost their job when mechanization came It was very easy to go from one job to the other. weather it needs to be required or not, many jobs today effectively require 20 years of education (12+ school, 4 undergrad, 2 masters, 2 years experience). we talk about coal mining jobs going away as if they should have seen it coming, but tech can also be vulnerable. people forget what it was like to search for a tech job even years after the 2001 bubble burst. also, the reason why people are worried about automation isn't the number of people effected by each iteration. it was widely accepted automation would destroy jobs and more than what was destroyed would come. the 2001 and 2008 recession seems to indicate that is becoming less true. i would categorize those recessions as mass unemployment, thus mass unemployment is not becoming less and less likely.

valuearb 9y ago
Virtually zero jobs require 20 years of education or degrees, 99% of jobs can be learned with a boot camp.
- sumoboy 9y ago
  I sure don't want any of that 99% being a doctor or lawyer just finishing a boot camp.
  - spacelizard 9y ago
    I do. There are all kinds of things wrong with requiring 20 years of study just to be able to have a chance to do a job properly. If done properly, we can reduce that time significantly.
    - andrewflnr 9y ago
      I'm inclined to agree about lawyers, but for medicine I'm pretty sure there just is that much to learn.
      - maxerickson 9y ago
        I imagine most doctors would be just fine as doctors if they graduated from high school at age 16 and also skipped 1 year (maybe 2) of undergrad. A great way to spend more money on education would be to target lowering high school graduation age to 17, with at least a year of training oriented education for students that weren't interested in an academic track and a faster academic track for students that did want it. The idea that everybody gets value out of Algebra II is pretty confused and at my Big 10 university, I often knew more history on days I hadn't done the reading than most of the people in my discussion class (that is, our "well prepared" high school students aren't coming out of high school well rounded anyway, lets drop the pretense).
  - adpirz 9y ago
    Boot camp is hyperbole for medicine, but the medical field itself is beginning to recognize (at least in the US) that the path to becoming a physician is much longer than need be, especially given the shortage we have especially for GPs.
    - c0nfused 9y ago
      My impression is that the medical field is mostly increasing the number of new MDs but not the number of residency slots. This means that soon medical school will end up like law school where you can get a law degree but not a job. You need at least a year of residency to be able to practice medicine in any state, to get a real job you need to finish. http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/266610-shortage-of-residency-slots-may-have-chilling-effect-on-next http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/266610-sho...
- ashark 9y ago
  I recently composed an email for someone with a degree in mathematics but little experience with computers, outlining what they'd need to do to bridge the gab between their current position and someone with a degree or strong self-taught skills in CS. When I started I thought it'd be fairly short. It wasn't, and much of the difference wasn't theoretical CS stuff—it was "stupid computer shit". Tools, the command line, daemons, implementation details for a dozen key technologies, debuggers, and on and on and on. I think I'd underestimated how much all that time I'd spent futzing with DOS to make my games work, or playing with operating systems, or running a message board for my friends, and so on, had provided the foundation for my success as a developer. The hours weren't spent optimally, but they were spent in great quantity, and most people didn't grow up with that kind of running head-start into the industry. It's a giant hurdle to overcome.
  - autokad 9y ago
    that's exactly what i meant =)
LoSboccacc 9y ago
We're also pushing the pension date by 5 year every 5, so there's that. Zero mobility upward, load pressure from newcomers and if you happen to leave the job after your peak at 50 - real or percieved peak - you've mostly unemployment left as a life prospect