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Anecdotally I can only state that this can also be seen by searching for "robotics engineer" or related job openings. I was doing just that a year ago and the f

by ricw 9y ago

Anecdotally I can only state that this can also be seen by searching for "robotics engineer" or related job openings. I was doing just that a year ago and the findings are slim. There just aren't many jobs out there, which to me indicates that there is little demand and consequently little development in that regard. Ever since, I've stopped believing that we'll have massive job losses due to automation (self driving cars are the only big counter example).

wtvanhest 9y ago
I don't believe future tech will replace all jobs any more than past tech has. I'm confident that people who say "this time, its different" are naive. But... will there ever be 'robotics' jobs? I would think most jobs would be really specific like a type of machine learning or computer vision etc.
- randomdata 9y ago
  > I would think most jobs would be really specific like a type of machine learning or computer vision etc. Isn't that putting the cart before the horse? A "robotics engineer" in my mind is someone who evaluates the problem needing to be automated and then finds a solution to automate it. That solution may include machine learning or computer vision, but not necessarily. There are lots of problems that can be solved more effectively in different ways.
  - wtvanhest 9y ago
    I doubt it. That is more of a founder role you are describing. People hiring for robotics work will likely already be working on a problem.
    - randomdata 9y ago
      That sounds like a different market segment. If McDonalds wants to invest in removing their line cooks, they aren't going to wait until someone starts a startup providing that. They are going to hire an automation firm staffed with "robotics engineers". They, the engineers, then have to figure out how to make it work, be that through machine learning and computer vision, or some other method. Although the fact that you point to founders here, and echoing that there is little viability in a career as a "robotics" engineer, emphasizes the earlier comments.
      - wtvanhest 9y ago
        I think we are both agreeing with each other, you are just misreading my comment. The OP said something to the effect of: I don't see jobs for Robotics engineers. (as evidence that robotics is not an expanding field). I said something like: You won't see jobs for 'robotics engineers' you will see jobs for specific purposes. > They are going to hire an automation firm staffed with "robotics engineers". Exactly. If a company doesn't know how to solve their problem and all they want to do is automate stuff, they will hire a consultancy to tell them who to hire. The consultancy will hire specialists (i.e. not 'robotics engineers') and the large company will hire specialists and project managers. There will never be job postings for robotics engineers, all while the number of people working on robotics increases dramatically.
maxerickson 9y ago
Automation has been a significant factor in the soft labor markets in developed countries over recent decades. The thing that can still happen is an inflection point, where the up front capital investment needed for automation becomes low enough that hiring any labor stops making sense.
- valuearb 9y ago
  You are talking about nirvana, where robots are so cheap anyone can own them. The cost of food and shelter would decline to nearly zero in such a world.
  - maxerickson 9y ago
    We are culturally unprepared to live in it.
  - Houshalter 9y ago
    Not really. Food is already highly mechanized, but it's far from free. It still requires land and capital to produce it. The cost of housing hasn't been correlated with the cost of construction for a long time. Look at how houses keep getting more and more expensive, especially in cities. Even though we have tons more construction technology then we did 150 years ago. But food and shelter aren't the only costs. Healthcare keeps getting more and more expensive, and that can't be automated. If for no other reason than liability concerns. Any industry that can't' be automated will become disproportionately more expensive relative to everything else.
    - valuearb 9y ago
      If anything can be automated it's healthcare. Houses don't get more expensive, not in proportion to wages. And the costs of urban housing is land costs, which are dictated by government policies driven by NIMBYS. Cheap robots can build cheap apartments a thousand feet high to save on land costs, or cheap houses on cheap desert land. The coming robot apocalypse is actual nirvana.
stevenwoo 9y ago
Would a lot of robotics jobs go to where the factories are, according to the popular narrative during the campaign, in China? I don't know how to check this. Also, it's not just robotics but machinery - the coal mining jobs in Appalachia disappeared to lessened demand but the number of jobs would have gone down severely in any case due to mechanization made possible by mountain top removal. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/10/coal-countrys-decline-has-a-long-history/453144/ https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/10/coal-co...
- ZeroGravitas 9y ago
  Coal demand rose for most of the last 100 years, only recently peaking, jobs declined over most of that. Automation and moving to surface mining (probably because it was more automatible so basically "automation") account for most of that change.
imh 9y ago
From the article: >“Robot” is shorthand for any device or algorithm that does what humans once did, from mechanical combines and thermostats to dishwashers and airfare search sites. "Software engineer" counts in some ways too, and that's sure growing.
- ricw 9y ago
  Software engineers are distinctly different from robotics engineers. To build robots, you need to be at the intersection of software, electronics and mechanical engineering. A robotics engineer would typically intersect at the software and electronics part. From personal experience, I can tell you that transitioning from software to robotics is not trivial. It's also very frustrating. Software is typically much faster and cheaper to debug and fix than anything hardware related...
  - Sharlin 9y ago
    But the GP's point was that a lot of automation doesn't need robotics at all. It just needs software, running on commodity hardware. How many jobs there are open for robotics engineers is not a good proxy for how many jobs are being automated.
- Natales 9y ago
  I'd be cautious with that too. As Agile methodology gains more acceptance, the act of creating software becomes more and more methodology-centric. Breaking down the problem into smaller and smaller stories with TDD approaches, and suddenly, it could become feasible for an AI to start delivering the stories. It's perfectly logical to think that AIs could replace programmers in a not too distant future.
  - Chris2048 9y ago
    It's kind of reassuring how often those methods fail then :->

by ricw 9y ago

wtvanhest 9y ago

I don't believe future tech will replace all jobs any more than past tech has. I'm confident that people who say "this time, its different" are naive. But... will there ever be 'robotics' jobs? I would think most jobs would be really specific like a type of machine learning or computer vision etc.

randomdata 9y ago
> I would think most jobs would be really specific like a type of machine learning or computer vision etc. Isn't that putting the cart before the horse? A "robotics engineer" in my mind is someone who evaluates the problem needing to be automated and then finds a solution to automate it. That solution may include machine learning or computer vision, but not necessarily. There are lots of problems that can be solved more effectively in different ways.
- wtvanhest 9y ago
  I doubt it. That is more of a founder role you are describing. People hiring for robotics work will likely already be working on a problem.
  - randomdata 9y ago
    That sounds like a different market segment. If McDonalds wants to invest in removing their line cooks, they aren't going to wait until someone starts a startup providing that. They are going to hire an automation firm staffed with "robotics engineers". They, the engineers, then have to figure out how to make it work, be that through machine learning and computer vision, or some other method. Although the fact that you point to founders here, and echoing that there is little viability in a career as a "robotics" engineer, emphasizes the earlier comments.
    - wtvanhest 9y ago
      I think we are both agreeing with each other, you are just misreading my comment. The OP said something to the effect of: I don't see jobs for Robotics engineers. (as evidence that robotics is not an expanding field). I said something like: You won't see jobs for 'robotics engineers' you will see jobs for specific purposes. > They are going to hire an automation firm staffed with "robotics engineers". Exactly. If a company doesn't know how to solve their problem and all they want to do is automate stuff, they will hire a consultancy to tell them who to hire. The consultancy will hire specialists (i.e. not 'robotics engineers') and the large company will hire specialists and project managers. There will never be job postings for robotics engineers, all while the number of people working on robotics increases dramatically.

maxerickson 9y ago

Automation has been a significant factor in the soft labor markets in developed countries over recent decades. The thing that can still happen is an inflection point, where the up front capital investment needed for automation becomes low enough that hiring any labor stops making sense.

valuearb 9y ago
You are talking about nirvana, where robots are so cheap anyone can own them. The cost of food and shelter would decline to nearly zero in such a world.
- maxerickson 9y ago
  We are culturally unprepared to live in it.
- Houshalter 9y ago
  Not really. Food is already highly mechanized, but it's far from free. It still requires land and capital to produce it. The cost of housing hasn't been correlated with the cost of construction for a long time. Look at how houses keep getting more and more expensive, especially in cities. Even though we have tons more construction technology then we did 150 years ago. But food and shelter aren't the only costs. Healthcare keeps getting more and more expensive, and that can't be automated. If for no other reason than liability concerns. Any industry that can't' be automated will become disproportionately more expensive relative to everything else.
  - valuearb 9y ago
    If anything can be automated it's healthcare. Houses don't get more expensive, not in proportion to wages. And the costs of urban housing is land costs, which are dictated by government policies driven by NIMBYS. Cheap robots can build cheap apartments a thousand feet high to save on land costs, or cheap houses on cheap desert land. The coming robot apocalypse is actual nirvana.

stevenwoo 9y ago

Would a lot of robotics jobs go to where the factories are, according to the popular narrative during the campaign, in China? I don't know how to check this. Also, it's not just robotics but machinery - the coal mining jobs in Appalachia disappeared to lessened demand but the number of jobs would have gone down severely in any case due to mechanization made possible by mountain top removal. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/10/coal-countrys-decline-has-a-long-history/453144/ https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/10/coal-co...

ZeroGravitas 9y ago
Coal demand rose for most of the last 100 years, only recently peaking, jobs declined over most of that. Automation and moving to surface mining (probably because it was more automatible so basically "automation") account for most of that change.

imh 9y ago

From the article: >“Robot” is shorthand for any device or algorithm that does what humans once did, from mechanical combines and thermostats to dishwashers and airfare search sites. "Software engineer" counts in some ways too, and that's sure growing.

ricw 9y ago
Software engineers are distinctly different from robotics engineers. To build robots, you need to be at the intersection of software, electronics and mechanical engineering. A robotics engineer would typically intersect at the software and electronics part. From personal experience, I can tell you that transitioning from software to robotics is not trivial. It's also very frustrating. Software is typically much faster and cheaper to debug and fix than anything hardware related...
- Sharlin 9y ago
  But the GP's point was that a lot of automation doesn't need robotics at all. It just needs software, running on commodity hardware. How many jobs there are open for robotics engineers is not a good proxy for how many jobs are being automated.
Natales 9y ago
I'd be cautious with that too. As Agile methodology gains more acceptance, the act of creating software becomes more and more methodology-centric. Breaking down the problem into smaller and smaller stories with TDD approaches, and suddenly, it could become feasible for an AI to start delivering the stories. It's perfectly logical to think that AIs could replace programmers in a not too distant future.
- Chris2048 9y ago
  It's kind of reassuring how often those methods fail then :->