7 ms·

Engraving is now reportedly the most automated profession

67 points by bilifuduo 9y ago

FrozenVoid 9y ago
The difference is they own the means of production. Many workers in automated industries do not.
Pamar 9y ago
The article is interesting and I am glad to see some contrarian point to the main "automation will destroy jobs" narrative but... But I think that they are comparing apples to oranges here. The engravers have not been "automated away" - in their case technology augments them, so it's not like "I used to be an engraver but now I have lost my job to a robot" but - as the article says "I am an engraver and thanks to technology I have to say sorry but I can't do that ten time less often than before". Same goes for office automation in general. Technology have augmented human-unassisted output (well, in case of office automation a lot of that has been wasted on futzing around with fonts and so on, but still...). But I wonder what would happen if self-service engraving (via web interface, at a fraction of the cost and with your item delivered by drone or automated van in case of larger packages) entered the market, and if they would keep the same level of enthusiasm about automation. I wonder what would they say
- dasmoth 9y ago
  Same goes for office automation in general. Technology have augmented human-unassisted output (well, in case of office automation a lot of that has been wasted on futzing around with fonts and so on, but still...). That's one issue that crops up in office automation, but not necessarily the biggest one. General tools like word processors and speaadsheets remain just that: tools. But once office functions gain special purpose software, it often locks in strong assumptions about workflows that translate into more, rather than less, "sorry but I can't do that."
  - paulryanrogers 9y ago
    On the micro level that's my experience too. Though I suspect at the macro level competitors with more flexibleautomation will win more business. Assuming a competitive market.
    - dasmoth 9y ago
      The people buying the automation are generally not the users. Those with purchasing authority probably already have a somewhat stereotyped view of the workflow in question, so selling them a rigid version may be pretty easy. And taking autonomy away from the individual users might actually seem like a feature, not a bug.
  - JoshTriplett 9y ago
    > But once office functions gain special purpose software, it often locks in strong assumptions about workflows that translate into more, rather than less, "sorry but I can't do that." Which just solidifies the demand for people to build more such software for other use cases.
- twoodfin 9y ago
  If demand for engraving remained constant, then a 10X improvement in productivity for an engraver would actually eliminate far more engraver jobs than the final switch to full automation.
  - Kluny 9y ago
    As engraving got cheaper though, the demand for it would increase. So there's no sense assuming that it will remain constant.
    - twoodfin 9y ago
      Sure. Just like farming over the last 150 years. Far fewer jobs, more food, and that's great for essentially everybody. I just don't believe there's some cliff of automation effectiveness where it goes from a good thing to a bad thing. Greater productivity always means making more for less.
      - milcron 9y ago
        It's always a good thing, plus the additional "bad" side-effect of less work for the populace to do, driving down the price of labor. As the price of labor trends downwards, some cohorts are going to have a harder time selling their labor to pay for necessities: food, shelter, healthcare, etc. A good amount of these problems could be mitigated by a strong welfare system and/or basic income.
        paulddraper 9y ago
        > A good amount of these problems could be mitigated And a good amount of the advantages would be mitigated too.
        EGreg 9y ago
        Advantages for whom? If a growing number of people live in poverty, perhaps they should have a say in how society is run?
- ryukafalz 9y ago
  Right, and one of the engravers interviewed in the article says as much: > “I’m just really surprised that anyone would say that this is the most automated industry,” says Rader. If someone orders a plaque from his company, a machine engraves it. But a human lays out the appropriate design using a computer, selects the materials, lays the metal in the machine, assembles the plaque, and packages the plaque when it’s done.
  - musgrove 9y ago
    "using a computer" are the operative words. The engraver is only thinking physical automation. But the computer handles most of the work they used to do before automation. The "engraver" only makes a few easy design choices, hits Enter, and mails it from what he himself describes. That also seems less of a "profession" and more of a trade, if anything.
    - photojosh 9y ago
      Reminds me of what's happened to professional photography with the advent of digital cameras (+ Internet etc). The barrier to entry is much lower and the skill-level required to do a moderately competent job has plummeted.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
- nashashmi 9y ago
  > But I wonder what would happen if self-service engraving ... entered the market... To me that would be the final nail in the coffin. But then again, maybe the powers would be shifted from the person who runs the machines to the person who orders the engravings or the person who consults with promotion companies or to the one who opens up the possibilities of more complex engravings.
brownbat 9y ago
> “It’s not like you’re employing fewer people,” says Rader, who has about 10 employees, including his bookkeeper. “I can just do more things. I can tell fewer people, ‘sorry, I can’t do that.’” That was refreshing to hear. There was another more detailed treatment of automation's impact in the Economist a while back, which mentioned graphic design, a similar profession, where human jobs weren't replaced, tasks simply became redefined as designers started using more computer aids to let them perform more complex work: http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-s... David Autor had a long academic survey of the topic, it's detailed and in-depth, but a good read if you're interested in this area, with a fascinating discussion of how we quadrupled the number of bank tellers after the invention of the ATM, and the role of good governance in mitigating labor shocks due to sudden increases in roboticization. https://economics.mit.edu/files/11563 https://economics.mit.edu/files/11563
christkv 9y ago
Well great article however two noteworthy things to point out. Over the last 10 years the hourly wage has stayed the same meaning the workers have lost purchasing power due to inflation. If the prices of the product have gone up with inflation this just means a bigger part of the pie has gone to the owners of the business. Pretty much what one would expect with automation. This is not a sunshine story, even if they attempt to paint it as one, and that's before one contemplates full automation where no workers are involved.
- Gys 9y ago
  > If the prices of the product have gone up with inflation this just means a bigger part of the pie has gone to the owners of the business Labor costs are not the only costs. In most cases there is also material involved and less tangible costs like rent, IT, external accounting, VAT increase that could not be forwarded (a common problem in Europe), etc. Running a business is not simple. For most companies its a struggle. One day you win some, the next day you loose some. I have done well in the end, but I know many that did not.
  - musgrove 9y ago
    Lord...the pie analogy. The OP thinks there's a limited amount of pie, which is a novice error. The pie itself can grow while remaining proportional, which is another scenario he didn't consider.
    - coldtea 9y ago
      And the thing your example doesn't consider is that in human societies wealth is relative. We don't think a family living in a trailer is doing great just because the average house in 1860 used to be worse and have less amenities (no electricity for one). Hence, it's not the volume of the slice one gets that matters but its relation to the overall size of the pie (e.g. whether your share grew, not whether the slice grew). And the situation we have is that while the pie is getting larger, the common people's slices are getting either only slightly larger (not as much as the change in the pie size), and they need to work a lot than they did in the 50s and 60s to get a basic slice. In other words, the society produces e.g. 2x or even 10x more wealth, but they only get, say, 2x larger share of that or worse, despite working harder than ever.
mgkimsal 9y ago
Taking a job from 2 hours to 20 minutes is ... impressive, but, as someone else pointed out, it's augmentation, not really completely automated. I will not be surprised if Amazon offers drone-based engraving in 10 years; you'll just have someone drop the headstone, and their drone will do the rest.
- evan_ 9y ago
  Great idea. If the drone gets sloppy and the headstone hits someone, that's just another sale.
  - paulddraper 9y ago
    At that point, I think you give that one for free.
zepto 9y ago
This seems absurdity polyannaish. Surely it's obvious that the parts that are currently done by people - laying out the design, and handling handling awkward shaped objects - can and will be automated. Developing such technology specifically for the engraving industry probably isn't cost effective and so for now humans remain employable in this industry, but those jobs exist so commonly across industries that it's inevitable that they will be automated away in due course.
NicoJuicy 9y ago
Automation is doing no manual labor. Technical improvement's mentioned in the article is not automation. It's the same as a accountant who uses software. He can do more in less time
averagewall 9y ago
Massive survivorship bias here. They only interviewed engravers who haven't lost their job so of course they're not hurt by it. What about those 6 guys he didn't need to hire because of the machine? What about businesses which shut down since the advent of machines?
Tokkemon 9y ago
As a music engraver, someone who creates scores on computer, no longer on metal sheets, I feel like my niche industry dodged a bullet here. But alas, it is less about the literal engraving part and more about the design of the graphics involved and new software like Dorico is a big step forward for increasing the output of the average engraver leading to more scores in general.

67 points by bilifuduo 9y ago

The difference is they own the means of production. Many workers in automated industries do not.

The article is interesting and I am glad to see some contrarian point to the main "automation will destroy jobs" narrative but... But I think that they are comparing apples to oranges here. The engravers have not been "automated away" - in their case technology augments them, so it's not like "I used to be an engraver but now I have lost my job to a robot" but - as the article says "I am an engraver and thanks to technology I have to say sorry but I can't do that ten time less often than before". Same goes for office automation in general. Technology have augmented human-unassisted output (well, in case of office automation a lot of that has been wasted on futzing around with fonts and so on, but still...). But I wonder what would happen if self-service engraving (via web interface, at a fraction of the cost and with your item delivered by drone or automated van in case of larger packages) entered the market, and if they would keep the same level of enthusiasm about automation. I wonder what would they say

dasmoth 9y ago
Same goes for office automation in general. Technology have augmented human-unassisted output (well, in case of office automation a lot of that has been wasted on futzing around with fonts and so on, but still...). That's one issue that crops up in office automation, but not necessarily the biggest one. General tools like word processors and speaadsheets remain just that: tools. But once office functions gain special purpose software, it often locks in strong assumptions about workflows that translate into more, rather than less, "sorry but I can't do that."
- paulryanrogers 9y ago
  On the micro level that's my experience too. Though I suspect at the macro level competitors with more flexibleautomation will win more business. Assuming a competitive market.
  - dasmoth 9y ago
    The people buying the automation are generally not the users. Those with purchasing authority probably already have a somewhat stereotyped view of the workflow in question, so selling them a rigid version may be pretty easy. And taking autonomy away from the individual users might actually seem like a feature, not a bug.
- JoshTriplett 9y ago
  > But once office functions gain special purpose software, it often locks in strong assumptions about workflows that translate into more, rather than less, "sorry but I can't do that." Which just solidifies the demand for people to build more such software for other use cases.
twoodfin 9y ago
If demand for engraving remained constant, then a 10X improvement in productivity for an engraver would actually eliminate far more engraver jobs than the final switch to full automation.
- Kluny 9y ago
  As engraving got cheaper though, the demand for it would increase. So there's no sense assuming that it will remain constant.
  - twoodfin 9y ago
    Sure. Just like farming over the last 150 years. Far fewer jobs, more food, and that's great for essentially everybody. I just don't believe there's some cliff of automation effectiveness where it goes from a good thing to a bad thing. Greater productivity always means making more for less.
    - milcron 9y ago
      It's always a good thing, plus the additional "bad" side-effect of less work for the populace to do, driving down the price of labor. As the price of labor trends downwards, some cohorts are going to have a harder time selling their labor to pay for necessities: food, shelter, healthcare, etc. A good amount of these problems could be mitigated by a strong welfare system and/or basic income.
      - paulddraper 9y ago
        > A good amount of these problems could be mitigated And a good amount of the advantages would be mitigated too.
        EGreg 9y ago
        Advantages for whom? If a growing number of people live in poverty, perhaps they should have a say in how society is run?
ryukafalz 9y ago
Right, and one of the engravers interviewed in the article says as much: > “I’m just really surprised that anyone would say that this is the most automated industry,” says Rader. If someone orders a plaque from his company, a machine engraves it. But a human lays out the appropriate design using a computer, selects the materials, lays the metal in the machine, assembles the plaque, and packages the plaque when it’s done.
- musgrove 9y ago
  "using a computer" are the operative words. The engraver is only thinking physical automation. But the computer handles most of the work they used to do before automation. The "engraver" only makes a few easy design choices, hits Enter, and mails it from what he himself describes. That also seems less of a "profession" and more of a trade, if anything.
  - photojosh 9y ago
    Reminds me of what's happened to professional photography with the advent of digital cameras (+ Internet etc). The barrier to entry is much lower and the skill-level required to do a moderately competent job has plummeted.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
nashashmi 9y ago
> But I wonder what would happen if self-service engraving ... entered the market... To me that would be the final nail in the coffin. But then again, maybe the powers would be shifted from the person who runs the machines to the person who orders the engravings or the person who consults with promotion companies or to the one who opens up the possibilities of more complex engravings.

brownbat 9y ago

> “It’s not like you’re employing fewer people,” says Rader, who has about 10 employees, including his bookkeeper. “I can just do more things. I can tell fewer people, ‘sorry, I can’t do that.’” That was refreshing to hear. There was another more detailed treatment of automation's impact in the Economist a while back, which mentioned graphic design, a similar profession, where human jobs weren't replaced, tasks simply became redefined as designers started using more computer aids to let them perform more complex work: http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-s... David Autor had a long academic survey of the topic, it's detailed and in-depth, but a good read if you're interested in this area, with a fascinating discussion of how we quadrupled the number of bank tellers after the invention of the ATM, and the role of good governance in mitigating labor shocks due to sudden increases in roboticization. https://economics.mit.edu/files/11563 https://economics.mit.edu/files/11563

christkv 9y ago

Well great article however two noteworthy things to point out. Over the last 10 years the hourly wage has stayed the same meaning the workers have lost purchasing power due to inflation. If the prices of the product have gone up with inflation this just means a bigger part of the pie has gone to the owners of the business. Pretty much what one would expect with automation. This is not a sunshine story, even if they attempt to paint it as one, and that's before one contemplates full automation where no workers are involved.

Gys 9y ago
> If the prices of the product have gone up with inflation this just means a bigger part of the pie has gone to the owners of the business Labor costs are not the only costs. In most cases there is also material involved and less tangible costs like rent, IT, external accounting, VAT increase that could not be forwarded (a common problem in Europe), etc. Running a business is not simple. For most companies its a struggle. One day you win some, the next day you loose some. I have done well in the end, but I know many that did not.
- musgrove 9y ago
  Lord...the pie analogy. The OP thinks there's a limited amount of pie, which is a novice error. The pie itself can grow while remaining proportional, which is another scenario he didn't consider.
  - coldtea 9y ago
    And the thing your example doesn't consider is that in human societies wealth is relative. We don't think a family living in a trailer is doing great just because the average house in 1860 used to be worse and have less amenities (no electricity for one). Hence, it's not the volume of the slice one gets that matters but its relation to the overall size of the pie (e.g. whether your share grew, not whether the slice grew). And the situation we have is that while the pie is getting larger, the common people's slices are getting either only slightly larger (not as much as the change in the pie size), and they need to work a lot than they did in the 50s and 60s to get a basic slice. In other words, the society produces e.g. 2x or even 10x more wealth, but they only get, say, 2x larger share of that or worse, despite working harder than ever.

mgkimsal 9y ago

Taking a job from 2 hours to 20 minutes is ... impressive, but, as someone else pointed out, it's augmentation, not really completely automated. I will not be surprised if Amazon offers drone-based engraving in 10 years; you'll just have someone drop the headstone, and their drone will do the rest.

evan_ 9y ago
Great idea. If the drone gets sloppy and the headstone hits someone, that's just another sale.
- paulddraper 9y ago
  At that point, I think you give that one for free.

zepto 9y ago

This seems absurdity polyannaish. Surely it's obvious that the parts that are currently done by people - laying out the design, and handling handling awkward shaped objects - can and will be automated. Developing such technology specifically for the engraving industry probably isn't cost effective and so for now humans remain employable in this industry, but those jobs exist so commonly across industries that it's inevitable that they will be automated away in due course.

NicoJuicy 9y ago

Automation is doing no manual labor. Technical improvement's mentioned in the article is not automation. It's the same as a accountant who uses software. He can do more in less time

averagewall 9y ago

Massive survivorship bias here. They only interviewed engravers who haven't lost their job so of course they're not hurt by it. What about those 6 guys he didn't need to hire because of the machine? What about businesses which shut down since the advent of machines?

Tokkemon 9y ago

As a music engraver, someone who creates scores on computer, no longer on metal sheets, I feel like my niche industry dodged a bullet here. But alas, it is less about the literal engraving part and more about the design of the graphics involved and new software like Dorico is a big step forward for increasing the output of the average engraver leading to more scores in general.