5 ms·

A question that occurred to me a few years ago: how many murderers get away with it, and are out there walking the streets like normal people? And bearing this

A question that occurred to me a few years ago: how many murderers get away with it, and are out there walking the streets like normal people? And bearing this in mind, how many murderers have I walked past on the street, blissfully unaware of their heinous crime(s)?! Creepy! downvote?! wtf?!

moomin 9y ago
Never mind murder. Murder's pretty uncommon. On the other hand, 1 in 5 American women report having been the victim of either rape or an attempted rape. Even more report some incident of domestic violence so I can assure you that you walk past some pretty awful people every day. You probably work with some of them too.
- valuearb 9y ago
  Yea, that's not true. You are conflating a university study with all women. And the 1 in 5 number comes from a study with a strong self selection bias, and also conflates drunken sex and unwanted kissing with rape. Better studies produced a 1 in 40 estimate.
  - 467568985476 9y ago
    Which better studies in particular?
    - valuearb 9y ago
      http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/21/how-misleading-is-the-new-one-in-four-campus-rape-statistic http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/21/how-mislead...
  - TazeTSchnitzel 9y ago
    > You are conflating a university study with all women Are they? Yes, that figure comes up in campus studies, but there's not-too-dissimilar numbers for the general population. For instance, RAINN cites a 1998 NIJ/CDC survey as saying that about 1 in 6 American women had “been the victim of an attempted or completed rape” in their lifetimes. https://www.rainn.org/statistics/victims-sexual-violence https://www.rainn.org/statistics/victims-sexual-violence > the 1 in 5 number comes from a study There's more than one campus sexual assault study which gives a figure in that range. Which one are you referring to?
  - moomin 9y ago
    Yea, my information's from the CDC (with a précis by the NYT) https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/nisvs/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/nisvs/index.html https://mobile.nytimes.com/2011/12/15/health/nearly-1-in-5-women-in-us-survey-report-sexual-assault.html https://mobile.nytimes.com/2011/12/15/health/nearly-1-in-5-w... But by all means produce your better studies than a comprehensive one by the CDC. The figures are accurate, but there's a lot of people with an emotional investment in not believing the numbers. This phenomenon is a symptom of patriarchy, btw. Ask your feminist friends about it, you'll be amazed.
    - valuearb 9y ago
      Again you used the word "rape" which isn't what the CDC measured. It was a telephone survey dependent upon what the respondent regards as rape. Nearly half of what they counted as "rape" were categorized "drunk/drug facilitated penetration". So they count anytime a man drugs a woman and has sex with her against her consent (which is clearly rape), as well as if a woman drinks too much, has sex, regrets it and later answers a survey that it was rape because that man should have known better. Rape is a horrific crime. But trying to pump up the statistics by using vague and overly broad definitions isn't right either.
      - moomin 9y ago
        OK, so your source is not believing victims. I'd rather stick to science, thanks.
        valuearb 9y ago
        What is science without rigorous definitions? Imagine you ask 100 women if they were ever raped and 25 say yes. You ask each for details, and twenty describe horrific encounters that were clearly rape. Five say they had drunk sex against their better judgment with a persistent suitor who claimed he loved them, and then he never called again and they felt violated. What would be the scientific measure of rape in this survey, 20 or 25? Do you let the victims decide what the definition of rape is, or does the scientist have a reasonable definition of rape that they apply to the victim's experience?
- Boothroid 9y ago
  Well sure, but murder is worse.
Zigurd 9y ago
The overall solution rate for murder in the US is about 65%. In big cities with dubious police leadership, the solution rate for murder can be under 50%.
- valuearb 9y ago
  Is it hat a conviction rate, or they actually found the murderer? Given some convictions are false.
  - Zigurd 9y ago
    That's a great question. It could be that the police arrested a suspect who either confess or was tried. Therefore it probably includes bad convictions. I doubt the stats get revised downward when convictions are reversed. For that matter, some confessions are later reversed.

moomin 9y ago

Never mind murder. Murder's pretty uncommon. On the other hand, 1 in 5 American women report having been the victim of either rape or an attempted rape. Even more report some incident of domestic violence so I can assure you that you walk past some pretty awful people every day. You probably work with some of them too.

valuearb 9y ago
Yea, that's not true. You are conflating a university study with all women. And the 1 in 5 number comes from a study with a strong self selection bias, and also conflates drunken sex and unwanted kissing with rape. Better studies produced a 1 in 40 estimate.
- 467568985476 9y ago
  Which better studies in particular?
  - valuearb 9y ago
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/21/how-misleading-is-the-new-one-in-four-campus-rape-statistic http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/21/how-mislead...
- TazeTSchnitzel 9y ago
  > You are conflating a university study with all women Are they? Yes, that figure comes up in campus studies, but there's not-too-dissimilar numbers for the general population. For instance, RAINN cites a 1998 NIJ/CDC survey as saying that about 1 in 6 American women had “been the victim of an attempted or completed rape” in their lifetimes. https://www.rainn.org/statistics/victims-sexual-violence https://www.rainn.org/statistics/victims-sexual-violence > the 1 in 5 number comes from a study There's more than one campus sexual assault study which gives a figure in that range. Which one are you referring to?
- moomin 9y ago
  Yea, my information's from the CDC (with a précis by the NYT) https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/nisvs/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/nisvs/index.html https://mobile.nytimes.com/2011/12/15/health/nearly-1-in-5-women-in-us-survey-report-sexual-assault.html https://mobile.nytimes.com/2011/12/15/health/nearly-1-in-5-w... But by all means produce your better studies than a comprehensive one by the CDC. The figures are accurate, but there's a lot of people with an emotional investment in not believing the numbers. This phenomenon is a symptom of patriarchy, btw. Ask your feminist friends about it, you'll be amazed.
  - valuearb 9y ago
    Again you used the word "rape" which isn't what the CDC measured. It was a telephone survey dependent upon what the respondent regards as rape. Nearly half of what they counted as "rape" were categorized "drunk/drug facilitated penetration". So they count anytime a man drugs a woman and has sex with her against her consent (which is clearly rape), as well as if a woman drinks too much, has sex, regrets it and later answers a survey that it was rape because that man should have known better. Rape is a horrific crime. But trying to pump up the statistics by using vague and overly broad definitions isn't right either.
    - moomin 9y ago
      OK, so your source is not believing victims. I'd rather stick to science, thanks.
      - valuearb 9y ago
        What is science without rigorous definitions? Imagine you ask 100 women if they were ever raped and 25 say yes. You ask each for details, and twenty describe horrific encounters that were clearly rape. Five say they had drunk sex against their better judgment with a persistent suitor who claimed he loved them, and then he never called again and they felt violated. What would be the scientific measure of rape in this survey, 20 or 25? Do you let the victims decide what the definition of rape is, or does the scientist have a reasonable definition of rape that they apply to the victim's experience?
Boothroid 9y ago
Well sure, but murder is worse.

Zigurd 9y ago

The overall solution rate for murder in the US is about 65%. In big cities with dubious police leadership, the solution rate for murder can be under 50%.

valuearb 9y ago
Is it hat a conviction rate, or they actually found the murderer? Given some convictions are false.
- Zigurd 9y ago
  That's a great question. It could be that the police arrested a suspect who either confess or was tried. Therefore it probably includes bad convictions. I doubt the stats get revised downward when convictions are reversed. For that matter, some confessions are later reversed.