8 ms·

More like 2-5. Elon Musk publicly said Tesla is 2 years away from full autonomy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIwLWfaAg-8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zI

by kjksf 9y ago

More like 2-5. Elon Musk publicly said Tesla is 2 years away from full autonomy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIwLWfaAg-8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIwLWfaAg-8). Chris Urmson (who was CTO of self-driving cars at google in 2009-2016) said it's 5 years (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtgBySRrN0Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtgBySRrN0Q). Personally I think we're 1-2 years aways from initial commercial rollout and it'll grow very quickly from there.

tmh79 9y ago
Its complicated from ubers perspective though. Their product is "transportation as reliable as running water". How long until autonomy becomes that reliable? Thinking specifically about: Weather, Supply shocks (morning/evening rush hour, concerts, professional sports games, parades)
- amluto 9y ago
  > Their product is "transportation as reliable as running water". Running water is very reliable. AWS can't keep a reliability zone working that reliably, and that's a rather easier problem than transportation.
- icebraining 9y ago
  Thing is, they don't have to rely 100% on autonomy. They can start introducing autonomous cars, in competition with human drivers, and adjust that number dynamically on an hourly basis. With the higher profits of those rides, they could even pay the human drivers more during those "supply shocks", as a kind of self-funded surge pricing, to fill up those gaps.
objclxt 9y ago
> Personally I think we're 1-2 years aways from initial commercial rollout and it'll grow very quickly from there. I think you're very optimistic. Bear in mind that Musk often over-promises on timelines (for instance, he said the new in-house autopilot in the Model S would have parity with the old outsourced one by the end of 2016, it still doesn't), and it will take sometime to regulate and legislate a whole new set of laws and structures around self driving (especially around matters of liability in the case of accidents). I can imagine in 2 years we see more complex and intelligent implementations available for the general public that can manage route mapping and full autonomy in an ideal situation (you'd better hope its not snowing), but where drivers are still required to be present and have their hands on or near the wheel at all times.
- greglindahl 9y ago
  Autopilot 2 just achieved parity. Late, but done.
  - dangrossman 9y ago
    As of today, AP2 is still missing the following AP1 features: * Auto-dimming touchscreen * Automatic windshield wipers * Autopark - perpendicular * Display cars in other lanes * Side collision avoidance * Side collision warning * Sign recognition It's also still steering itself off the road in places AP1 worked fine. There are videos over at r/teslamotors on Reddit or the TMC forum.
    - memmcgee 9y ago
      Who the hell did they outsource from?
      - andars 9y ago
        Mobileye.
      - greglindahl 9y ago
        The automatic wipers were from someone else like Bosch, they used to have a bug similar to a bug on Mercedes cars.
    - cjrp 9y ago
      I received an email the other day saying side collision avoidance has been added in the latest update, but the rest still stand. That seems crazy that automatic windshield wipers aren't enabled... my 2008 Honda Civic has those!
    - greglindahl 9y ago
      To put this into perspective, the things that recently shipped are autosteer and auto-braking at high speeds.
  - 9y ago
lz400 9y ago
I can't prove it but I will say 10x your prediction, between 20 and 50 years to get a real self driving car, a car with no wheel, fully automated. Maybe 10 years to have automated highway-only trucks. I think expectations are completely unrealistic in this.
- joshuamorton 9y ago
  For technological or regulatory reasons? (for context, I often see cars without steering wheels tooling around Mountain View)
  - luca_ing 9y ago
    How often does it snow in Mountain View?
    - joshuamorton 9y ago
      Why is that relevant? The person stated that they expected autonomous vehicles to take 20-50 years to have no steering wheels. My point is, such vehicles already drive on the roads in some places. The limits are already often more regulatory than technological.
      - lawnchair_larry 9y ago
        What do those do when an intersection light is out and a crew is directing traffic?
        erikpukinskis 9y ago
        Ask the human to confirm when it is safe to proceed.
        luca_ing 9y ago
        ...and have some kind of UI to explain to the car whether to pass the work crew on the left or on the right. I dunno, maybe some kind of wheel in front of the human, which they could turn left or right to command the car to change direction ;-P
nappy 9y ago
Musk misses the deaclones he sets for himself constantly. Maybe always?
Animats 9y ago
The big car companies doing automatic driving (Ford, Volvo, etc.) are talking about 2020 as the rollout year for the technology. They're public about this because the supply chain has to get ready. Continental, the parts maker, says they'll have automotive LIDAR units in mass production in 2020. Not because they can't do it sooner, but because they can't turn on the production line until there are volume orders. Prototypes, of course, will be available much sooner. Probably now.
TheCoelacanth 9y ago
You have to keep in mind that Musk gives his predictions in Martian years.

by kjksf 9y ago

tmh79 9y ago

Its complicated from ubers perspective though. Their product is "transportation as reliable as running water". How long until autonomy becomes that reliable? Thinking specifically about: Weather, Supply shocks (morning/evening rush hour, concerts, professional sports games, parades)

amluto 9y ago
> Their product is "transportation as reliable as running water". Running water is very reliable. AWS can't keep a reliability zone working that reliably, and that's a rather easier problem than transportation.
icebraining 9y ago
Thing is, they don't have to rely 100% on autonomy. They can start introducing autonomous cars, in competition with human drivers, and adjust that number dynamically on an hourly basis. With the higher profits of those rides, they could even pay the human drivers more during those "supply shocks", as a kind of self-funded surge pricing, to fill up those gaps.

objclxt 9y ago

> Personally I think we're 1-2 years aways from initial commercial rollout and it'll grow very quickly from there. I think you're very optimistic. Bear in mind that Musk often over-promises on timelines (for instance, he said the new in-house autopilot in the Model S would have parity with the old outsourced one by the end of 2016, it still doesn't), and it will take sometime to regulate and legislate a whole new set of laws and structures around self driving (especially around matters of liability in the case of accidents). I can imagine in 2 years we see more complex and intelligent implementations available for the general public that can manage route mapping and full autonomy in an ideal situation (you'd better hope its not snowing), but where drivers are still required to be present and have their hands on or near the wheel at all times.

greglindahl 9y ago
Autopilot 2 just achieved parity. Late, but done.
- dangrossman 9y ago
  As of today, AP2 is still missing the following AP1 features: * Auto-dimming touchscreen * Automatic windshield wipers * Autopark - perpendicular * Display cars in other lanes * Side collision avoidance * Side collision warning * Sign recognition It's also still steering itself off the road in places AP1 worked fine. There are videos over at r/teslamotors on Reddit or the TMC forum.
  - memmcgee 9y ago
    Who the hell did they outsource from?
    - andars 9y ago
      Mobileye.
    - greglindahl 9y ago
      The automatic wipers were from someone else like Bosch, they used to have a bug similar to a bug on Mercedes cars.
  - cjrp 9y ago
    I received an email the other day saying side collision avoidance has been added in the latest update, but the rest still stand. That seems crazy that automatic windshield wipers aren't enabled... my 2008 Honda Civic has those!
  - greglindahl 9y ago
    To put this into perspective, the things that recently shipped are autosteer and auto-braking at high speeds.
- 9y ago

lz400 9y ago

I can't prove it but I will say 10x your prediction, between 20 and 50 years to get a real self driving car, a car with no wheel, fully automated. Maybe 10 years to have automated highway-only trucks. I think expectations are completely unrealistic in this.

joshuamorton 9y ago
For technological or regulatory reasons? (for context, I often see cars without steering wheels tooling around Mountain View)
- luca_ing 9y ago
  How often does it snow in Mountain View?
  - joshuamorton 9y ago
    Why is that relevant? The person stated that they expected autonomous vehicles to take 20-50 years to have no steering wheels. My point is, such vehicles already drive on the roads in some places. The limits are already often more regulatory than technological.
    - lawnchair_larry 9y ago
      What do those do when an intersection light is out and a crew is directing traffic?
      - erikpukinskis 9y ago
        Ask the human to confirm when it is safe to proceed.
        luca_ing 9y ago
        ...and have some kind of UI to explain to the car whether to pass the work crew on the left or on the right. I dunno, maybe some kind of wheel in front of the human, which they could turn left or right to command the car to change direction ;-P

nappy 9y ago

Musk misses the deaclones he sets for himself constantly. Maybe always?

Animats 9y ago

The big car companies doing automatic driving (Ford, Volvo, etc.) are talking about 2020 as the rollout year for the technology. They're public about this because the supply chain has to get ready. Continental, the parts maker, says they'll have automotive LIDAR units in mass production in 2020. Not because they can't do it sooner, but because they can't turn on the production line until there are volume orders. Prototypes, of course, will be available much sooner. Probably now.

TheCoelacanth 9y ago

You have to keep in mind that Musk gives his predictions in Martian years.