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> figuring out how to handle surplus labor without (often violent) societal upheaval will be the defining issue of this century The jobs and the welfare of ind

> figuring out how to handle surplus labor without (often violent) societal upheaval will be the defining issue of this century The jobs and the welfare of individuals are the top priorities IMHO, but I'm not sure there is a great problem. This isn't at all a new situation. If you look at the jobs of a century ago in advanced economies, most of them are gone yet employment now is relatively high. Just think of the homemakers who were displaced by the automation of home care (clothes washers and dryers, vacuum cleaners, etc.); that might approach half the population. There's also textiles, mining, factory work, etc. It's a regular process: Productivity improves, less labor is needed in one area, and so it shifts to something more productive. If it wasn't for that creative destruction, there would be no software developers; they'd all be in the mines and fields. What is different this time? I've heard all sorts of speculation, but I haven't heard anyone with expertise seriously analyze and address it. There are problems: To me the essential issue is that while the economy in aggregate grows through this process, individuals don't live in aggregate; they suffer (and sometimes gain) tremendously. The economy may grow 4% in aggregate, but most people don't get 4% richer; some lose 100% of a job (and house and children's education, and even healthcare in the U.S.) or gain 100% of a job. Perhaps that is no longer acceptable to us; it's not to me. The factory may move to a different part of the country, and in aggregate the economy marginally grows (there are the same number of factories in the country and we can assume it was moved to increase productivity), but all those individuals lost jobs. In addition, some research shows that a large segment of the population hasn't been getting wealthier for decades; only a few are. For example, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/08/researchers-have-answered-a-big-question-about-the-decline-of-the-middle-class/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/08/resea...

douche 9y ago
The problem is that we keep raising the floor on the level of training and aptitude that's required to be a productive worker in society, and we're already getting to the point where a lot of people can't keep up. The shift from being behind the plow to a cog in an assembly line doesn't filter that many people out. The shift from blue-collar industrial to white collar bullshit clerical employment filters a little more, but the shift to skilled knowledge work, which is rapidly becoming the only path to economic security, filters people hard. There's a lot of people that don't have the tools to even compete, and more that have the ability but don't have the resources to retread.
- Animats 9y ago
  That's a good, understandable explanation. Thanks. Another useful explanation is that new jobs are being created all the time, but most of the new ones can be done better by machines.
- hackuser 9y ago
  That is an interesting hypothesis that I've thought about. It seems plausible (but what do I know) - do you know of any research that supports it? An honest question; you are not obligated to do my research but maybe you know.
Namrog84 9y ago
Obligatory related post of "Human need not apply" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

douche 9y ago

The problem is that we keep raising the floor on the level of training and aptitude that's required to be a productive worker in society, and we're already getting to the point where a lot of people can't keep up. The shift from being behind the plow to a cog in an assembly line doesn't filter that many people out. The shift from blue-collar industrial to white collar bullshit clerical employment filters a little more, but the shift to skilled knowledge work, which is rapidly becoming the only path to economic security, filters people hard. There's a lot of people that don't have the tools to even compete, and more that have the ability but don't have the resources to retread.

Animats 9y ago
That's a good, understandable explanation. Thanks. Another useful explanation is that new jobs are being created all the time, but most of the new ones can be done better by machines.
hackuser 9y ago
That is an interesting hypothesis that I've thought about. It seems plausible (but what do I know) - do you know of any research that supports it? An honest question; you are not obligated to do my research but maybe you know.

Namrog84 9y ago

Obligatory related post of "Human need not apply" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU