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Sluggish user growth probably doesn't look much better when Facebook's overt effort to clone their product seems to be working. Instagram Stories alone already

Sluggish user growth probably doesn't look much better when Facebook's overt effort to clone their product seems to be working. Instagram Stories alone already outpaces Snap 200M to 166M. Looks like an uphill battle from here. http://www.thefader.com/2017/04/14/instagram-stories-more-popular-snapchat http://www.thefader.com/2017/04/14/instagram-stories-more-po...

aaron-lebo 9y ago
When you put it like that, you have to wonder how they have any chance at all, save some crazy pivot. From a consumer perspective, it's disappointing that Facebook controls itself and now this arena. It's gonna be hard to find innovation when purchasing and cloning are the way to do business. In some circles, having an Instagram is as expected as having Facebook, which makes abstaining difficult.
- ericd 9y ago
  Maybe people will chase innovation somewhere more useful as a result. That'd be some nice silver lining.
- pm90 9y ago
  Snapchat and Instagram definitely offer in somewhat similar spaces. All the semi-famous people I follow on instagram have their snapchat username right there in the profile.
  - dmix 9y ago
    People used to share Myspace and Facebook handle as well for a period of time... Snap used to have an advantage in terms of age group. I'm curious if this is still the case. Anecdotally I've heard from my partner that Instagram effectively duplicated a core feature of Snapchat to the point she no longer sees the point of Snapchat. But she always saw Snapchat as a side novelty, largely because she used Instagram well before Snapchat. But I also see this as an age group thing, Snapchat had the image of being popular with high school kids while Instagram had penetrated the university-30yr old category most effectively. So it's hard to say merely as an outside spectator. As well as being geographically limited in my perspective.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - jeffjose 9y ago
    I would argue that's a relic from the past. Most Instagram celebrities also had snapchat to post 'raw unedited' updates. Now that Instagram has stories, there probably isn't a strong reason to double post on snapchat as well.
  - rhizome 9y ago
    I'm sure a lot of them use Buffer or something to multipost.
    - icelancer 9y ago
      Instagram is resilient to multipost apps like Buffer on purpose. Snapchat obviously is as well.
- bsder 9y ago
  > It's gonna be hard to find innovation when purchasing and cloning are the way to do business. Welcome to Microsoft circa 1990. People forget how much oxygen Microsoft could suck out of a space simply by mentioning they were going to develop something.
  - kuschku 9y ago
    Or, as I mentioned (and got downvoted for yesterday), Google can. This is a very scary situation, where patents were originally developed to prevent exactly this.
    - mstade 9y ago
      I agree, but what can we do? Snap Inc. isn't exactly some teenager trying to make it out of their parent's garage. Patents obviously don't work, or at least not in their current form – troll litigation should suffice as proof of that – and besides, the big co's can just as well have departments doing nothing but patent all-the-things. As so many like to say: they idea matters less than the speed and strength of execution. It's clear that the network effects of Facebook makes it very difficult to compete, but is the problem really that they are copying features from other products, or is that just the symptoms of a bigger issue? Facebook effectively has a monopoly on the digital social network, no matter how many millennials say it's "not cool anymore" – they're still on it. My personal hypothesis is that this is because we lack a decentralized identity feature on the internet. For better or worse, Facebook and Google solved that problem, and now everything you do is connected to either your Facebook account or gmail. It doesn't matter if you don't have those accounts, becasue everyone else does, more or less, and they're locked in. You can't bring your identity with you. Sure you can close your account and possibly download your data, but if you do that you sever the connections, which is the true valuable bit of the network – the nodes less so. I really don't like the sheer dominance of Google and Facebook, but I have no idea how to get away from it either. Makes me small just thinking about it.
      - usrusr 9y ago
        Focus on the positives: it's Google and Facebook, not Google and +
- mseebach 9y ago
  From a different perspective you could point out that the innovative companies (in this context, Instagram and Snapchat) were indeed capable of significant (relative to the space, at lease) innovation (and getting extremely well paid). I don't see how the risk of "ending up" like Instagram or Snapchat would discourage anyone from making a play in the field. Unseating Facebook is a very different play from merely innovating.
atbentley 9y ago
> According to the report, Instagram Stories has more than 200 million users per day, with that number being measured by people updating their story or watching a friend's. I wonder what the number would be if those who only watched stories were excluded. Its also worth considering that Instagram delivers some of their announcements as stories and whether or not people viewing those also count towards the active user number.
- majani 9y ago
  Registered lurkers still count as active users. As a matter of fact, social media follows the 80:20 rule when it comes to steady content creation
- rjeli 9y ago
  This is very important. I watch Instagram and Snapchat stories every day. Instagram is 2 or 3 celebrity stories, then I scroll down to look at a few new pics. Snapchat is a constant stream of glimpses into the lives of my close friends. edit: I'm curious if this is true only for my friend groups/demographic/principal component, poll here: http://www.strawpoll.me/12939274 http://www.strawpoll.me/12939274
  - bennesvig 9y ago
    Snap calls itself the friends and family network for a reason. Instagram is a mix of celebrities, influencers, businesses, friends and family.
    - elgenie 9y ago
      That's not a particularly good thing from Wall St's perspective. Snap's path to monetization runs through celebrities, influencers and businesses.
      - nostrademons 9y ago
        Why? Their monetization strategy so far has been brand advertisement interspersed as vertical video ads between Stories. This doesn't require any particular kind of content, only that they can hold your attention for 10 seconds or so while they show you an advertisement.
EGreg 9y ago
Just out of curiosity, what kinds of things can a startup do to avoid being copied and killed out of the gate by Facebook? Poison pill? Patent?
- zenlikethat 9y ago
  There's a reasonable concern in the air that it's getting more and more difficult due to network effects, but the short answer is the same way you always compete with big companies -- you can be more agile and engage with the user base in a way that big companies just can't because of bureaucracies and unwillingness to take risks.
  - thedarkginger 9y ago
    This aspect is what makes me think Snap might be a canary in the coal mine. In the temporary image space, virtually all of the innovation has come from that company, whether it's the initial concept, expanding scope with stories, adding visual effects, etc. In the end, it might not matter. Facebook repeatedly cloned Snapchat's features, starting with the Poke app in 2012 that Zuck reportedly wrote code for himself. The result? They jammed it into all of their products (Insta, Messenger, WhatsApp, etc.) and seem to be riding the network effect to success. Not saying that smaller players can't win, but man, brute force and a big network were really effective this time. https://techcrunch.com/2012/12/21/facebook-poke-app/ https://techcrunch.com/2012/12/21/facebook-poke-app/
- majani 9y ago
  I'll indulge. When Facebook seriously have you in their sights, financially, the smart move is what Snap did: rush for IPO before your numbers start getting affected. Product-wise it appears that if Facebook make a billion dollar offer, accepting it is a wise choice to maximise usage growth and interaction.
  - pm90 9y ago
    At this point though, simply as a consumer, I would have appreciated Snap being acquired by FB so that FB wouldn't bastardize all the other social networks to try and emulate Snap. But looking long term, I think this might be a good thing... just in the short term it really sucks.
corobo 9y ago
> Facebook's overt effort to clone their product I'd be interested in hearing if anyone else absolutely hates this new stories thing Facebook is pinching from Snapchat. Every damn time I pull down (Messenger on iOS) to reload the conversation list I end up at the damn camera. That's not how literally every other app works. Now Facebook (iOS app) has updated and it feels like whenever I accidentally drag my thumb slightly in a non-specific direction across the screen the damn camera opens there too. Bring on the next social network. This one's getting all gross and gooey.
- moolcool 9y ago
  I don't think I've had a single friend use a Facebook story ever
  - corobo 9y ago
    I used it once then realised any responses I got were sent as a context-less Facebook message. If you click "Haha" in response to someone's story it sends the literal string "Haha" as a message to that user.
- pm90 9y ago
  YES! So much this! I want Instagram to be the social network of superb images/very short videos. I just HATE that now there's an extra tab at the top for stories and such. Why ruin an app that was doing its job so fucking well?
- zild3d 9y ago
  Agree completely, facebook "stories" feels cheap and forced. My anecdotal data point, is that most people I know (my age twenty somethings, younger, and even parent's age) enjoy using snapchat, partially due to the regular and fun updates to the computer vision / AR filters. And that very few people communicate with fb stories or use it aside from promotion (they run a business, or are a model, etc)

aaron-lebo 9y ago

When you put it like that, you have to wonder how they have any chance at all, save some crazy pivot. From a consumer perspective, it's disappointing that Facebook controls itself and now this arena. It's gonna be hard to find innovation when purchasing and cloning are the way to do business. In some circles, having an Instagram is as expected as having Facebook, which makes abstaining difficult.

ericd 9y ago
Maybe people will chase innovation somewhere more useful as a result. That'd be some nice silver lining.
pm90 9y ago
Snapchat and Instagram definitely offer in somewhat similar spaces. All the semi-famous people I follow on instagram have their snapchat username right there in the profile.
- dmix 9y ago
  People used to share Myspace and Facebook handle as well for a period of time... Snap used to have an advantage in terms of age group. I'm curious if this is still the case. Anecdotally I've heard from my partner that Instagram effectively duplicated a core feature of Snapchat to the point she no longer sees the point of Snapchat. But she always saw Snapchat as a side novelty, largely because she used Instagram well before Snapchat. But I also see this as an age group thing, Snapchat had the image of being popular with high school kids while Instagram had penetrated the university-30yr old category most effectively. So it's hard to say merely as an outside spectator. As well as being geographically limited in my perspective.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- jeffjose 9y ago
  I would argue that's a relic from the past. Most Instagram celebrities also had snapchat to post 'raw unedited' updates. Now that Instagram has stories, there probably isn't a strong reason to double post on snapchat as well.
- rhizome 9y ago
  I'm sure a lot of them use Buffer or something to multipost.
  - icelancer 9y ago
    Instagram is resilient to multipost apps like Buffer on purpose. Snapchat obviously is as well.
bsder 9y ago
> It's gonna be hard to find innovation when purchasing and cloning are the way to do business. Welcome to Microsoft circa 1990. People forget how much oxygen Microsoft could suck out of a space simply by mentioning they were going to develop something.
- kuschku 9y ago
  Or, as I mentioned (and got downvoted for yesterday), Google can. This is a very scary situation, where patents were originally developed to prevent exactly this.
  - mstade 9y ago
    I agree, but what can we do? Snap Inc. isn't exactly some teenager trying to make it out of their parent's garage. Patents obviously don't work, or at least not in their current form – troll litigation should suffice as proof of that – and besides, the big co's can just as well have departments doing nothing but patent all-the-things. As so many like to say: they idea matters less than the speed and strength of execution. It's clear that the network effects of Facebook makes it very difficult to compete, but is the problem really that they are copying features from other products, or is that just the symptoms of a bigger issue? Facebook effectively has a monopoly on the digital social network, no matter how many millennials say it's "not cool anymore" – they're still on it. My personal hypothesis is that this is because we lack a decentralized identity feature on the internet. For better or worse, Facebook and Google solved that problem, and now everything you do is connected to either your Facebook account or gmail. It doesn't matter if you don't have those accounts, becasue everyone else does, more or less, and they're locked in. You can't bring your identity with you. Sure you can close your account and possibly download your data, but if you do that you sever the connections, which is the true valuable bit of the network – the nodes less so. I really don't like the sheer dominance of Google and Facebook, but I have no idea how to get away from it either. Makes me small just thinking about it.
    - usrusr 9y ago
      Focus on the positives: it's Google and Facebook, not Google and +
mseebach 9y ago
From a different perspective you could point out that the innovative companies (in this context, Instagram and Snapchat) were indeed capable of significant (relative to the space, at lease) innovation (and getting extremely well paid). I don't see how the risk of "ending up" like Instagram or Snapchat would discourage anyone from making a play in the field. Unseating Facebook is a very different play from merely innovating.

atbentley 9y ago

> According to the report, Instagram Stories has more than 200 million users per day, with that number being measured by people updating their story or watching a friend's. I wonder what the number would be if those who only watched stories were excluded. Its also worth considering that Instagram delivers some of their announcements as stories and whether or not people viewing those also count towards the active user number.

majani 9y ago
Registered lurkers still count as active users. As a matter of fact, social media follows the 80:20 rule when it comes to steady content creation
rjeli 9y ago
This is very important. I watch Instagram and Snapchat stories every day. Instagram is 2 or 3 celebrity stories, then I scroll down to look at a few new pics. Snapchat is a constant stream of glimpses into the lives of my close friends. edit: I'm curious if this is true only for my friend groups/demographic/principal component, poll here: http://www.strawpoll.me/12939274 http://www.strawpoll.me/12939274
- bennesvig 9y ago
  Snap calls itself the friends and family network for a reason. Instagram is a mix of celebrities, influencers, businesses, friends and family.
  - elgenie 9y ago
    That's not a particularly good thing from Wall St's perspective. Snap's path to monetization runs through celebrities, influencers and businesses.
    - nostrademons 9y ago
      Why? Their monetization strategy so far has been brand advertisement interspersed as vertical video ads between Stories. This doesn't require any particular kind of content, only that they can hold your attention for 10 seconds or so while they show you an advertisement.

EGreg 9y ago

Just out of curiosity, what kinds of things can a startup do to avoid being copied and killed out of the gate by Facebook? Poison pill? Patent?

zenlikethat 9y ago
There's a reasonable concern in the air that it's getting more and more difficult due to network effects, but the short answer is the same way you always compete with big companies -- you can be more agile and engage with the user base in a way that big companies just can't because of bureaucracies and unwillingness to take risks.
- thedarkginger 9y ago
  This aspect is what makes me think Snap might be a canary in the coal mine. In the temporary image space, virtually all of the innovation has come from that company, whether it's the initial concept, expanding scope with stories, adding visual effects, etc. In the end, it might not matter. Facebook repeatedly cloned Snapchat's features, starting with the Poke app in 2012 that Zuck reportedly wrote code for himself. The result? They jammed it into all of their products (Insta, Messenger, WhatsApp, etc.) and seem to be riding the network effect to success. Not saying that smaller players can't win, but man, brute force and a big network were really effective this time. https://techcrunch.com/2012/12/21/facebook-poke-app/ https://techcrunch.com/2012/12/21/facebook-poke-app/
majani 9y ago
I'll indulge. When Facebook seriously have you in their sights, financially, the smart move is what Snap did: rush for IPO before your numbers start getting affected. Product-wise it appears that if Facebook make a billion dollar offer, accepting it is a wise choice to maximise usage growth and interaction.
- pm90 9y ago
  At this point though, simply as a consumer, I would have appreciated Snap being acquired by FB so that FB wouldn't bastardize all the other social networks to try and emulate Snap. But looking long term, I think this might be a good thing... just in the short term it really sucks.

corobo 9y ago

> Facebook's overt effort to clone their product I'd be interested in hearing if anyone else absolutely hates this new stories thing Facebook is pinching from Snapchat. Every damn time I pull down (Messenger on iOS) to reload the conversation list I end up at the damn camera. That's not how literally every other app works. Now Facebook (iOS app) has updated and it feels like whenever I accidentally drag my thumb slightly in a non-specific direction across the screen the damn camera opens there too. Bring on the next social network. This one's getting all gross and gooey.

moolcool 9y ago
I don't think I've had a single friend use a Facebook story ever
- corobo 9y ago
  I used it once then realised any responses I got were sent as a context-less Facebook message. If you click "Haha" in response to someone's story it sends the literal string "Haha" as a message to that user.
pm90 9y ago
YES! So much this! I want Instagram to be the social network of superb images/very short videos. I just HATE that now there's an extra tab at the top for stories and such. Why ruin an app that was doing its job so fucking well?
zild3d 9y ago
Agree completely, facebook "stories" feels cheap and forced. My anecdotal data point, is that most people I know (my age twenty somethings, younger, and even parent's age) enjoy using snapchat, partially due to the regular and fun updates to the computer vision / AR filters. And that very few people communicate with fb stories or use it aside from promotion (they run a business, or are a model, etc)