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The problem with the analysis is that it's treating shooting a basketball as a stochastic process, but it isn't. Flipping a coin is random, while shooting a ba
by LargeWu 16y ago
The problem with the analysis is that it's treating shooting a basketball as a stochastic process, but it isn't. Flipping a coin is random, while shooting a basketball is a skill that requires athletic ability. The analysis treats all shots the same, when in fact sometimes a player may be off balance, or rushed, or tired, or any other number of physical and/or mental factors than cannot be accounted for simply by check marks.
Anybody who has ever played sports in any sort of competitive environment has had moments when they are "on", whether it's basketball, golf, curling, whatever. Movement becomes easier. Shooting feels effortless. The game "slows down". The converse also happens, when everything feels labored and overwhelming.
Furthermore, the analysis focuses on "streak" in a very literal sense, as in runs of the same outcome that end when another outcome occurs, but the term used by sports fans often applies in a broader sense. One typically refers to streaky players as those who tend to be either very productive or very unproductive for extended periods of time, such as a game or a half, or maybe even over the course of several games.
- btilly 16y agoActually the analysis didn't focus on streaks. It focussed on the correlation between the outcome of one shot and the outcome of the next. Even a slight tendency towards streaks in your sense should show up in sharp relief. Yet it didn't. Yes, I know how it feels. I also know the tricks that memory can play. I also know how much we tend to see patterns. And I know about statistics. Of all of those, I trust statistics the most.
- LargeWu 16y agoFair enough. I only had time to glance at the original analysis, and I definitely saw "test of runs" in there, so that's what I assumed the analysis was based on.