5 ms·

Does the state have a plan for the water crisis that keeps getting worse if it were to make it easier and easier for more and more people to settle down in it?

jkimmel 9y ago
Only ~10% of California's water use is residential/urban (varies a little bit year to year) [0]. The majority of non-environmental water is used to grow cash crops in the central valley, like almonds, which take 1 gal/almond. Overall, urban residents have far less impact on climate than exurban residents who drive around in SUVs. It is in the best interests of everyone on planet Earth to make our cities denser and more inviting [1, 2]. [0] - http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=1108 http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=1108 [1] - http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/ http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/ [2] - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/23/city-dwellers-smaller-carbon-footprints https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/23/city-dwe...
- wfunction 9y ago
  Wouldn't you need to grow more food supporting the growing in-population though?
  - SamReidHughes 9y ago
    You can be sure California exports a ton of its food.
    - wfunction 9y ago
      I feel like I can also be sure the export isn't really going to drop much with people coming in, but the domestic usage will rise if you keep letting people in. So the mere fact that we export doesn't really seem to help things.
      - jkimmel 9y ago
        There is a set of assumptions in your argument that I believe are false. 1. Unregulated water use that allows for production of export cash crops will continue This could easily be fixed by regulating water use properly, such that farmers have economic incentive to grow crops that are less water intensive given that CA is not water rich. 2. Market prices of current export and current import crops will hold constant regardless of growth That's not how markets work. If there was a sudden surge in lettuce demand, farmers in Salinas would respond to increasing prices by switching some fields currently used for export crops to lettuce, which would be consumed locally. This is aided by point (1) above, where we could push this shift with water regulations. On the whole -- your concerns seem best addressed by sensible regulation of water in CA, which is a long term political problem. Opposing the farm lobby is well known third rail in the CA Leg. Nativist population control programs are not the solution to a market failure of water distribution, however they might be implemented. Opposing housing construction is even a really poor way to implement a nativist population control program.
  - stevenwoo 9y ago
    California exports food so it would just have to stop exporting so much. https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/ https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/
    - wfunction 9y ago
      Yes but please see my reply on the previous comment saying the same thing: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14305121 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14305121
  - jkimmel 9y ago
    CA exports a large portion of its agricultural products, including several top exports that are very water intensive to grow (again, almonds, walnuts, dairy & beef). Moreover, current irrigation methods in the valley are not ideal for water conservation. Many farmers have water rights dating to the 19th century allowing nearly unfettered access to whatever water they can find, providing no economic incentive to invest in conservation infrastructure. There is no Californian Malthusian crisis, just a story of poor resource management. https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/ https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/
    - wfunction 9y ago
      Yes but please see my reply on the previous comment saying the same thing: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14305121 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14305121
  - mbillie1 9y ago
    That's not really how food distribution works, in the US or most other first world countries, so no.
- AnimalMuppet 9y ago
  One gallon per almond? But... one gallon of bottled water is more than a dollar. I know there's packaging and transportation, but there's packaging and transportation for the almonds, too. And almonds are not one dollar per almond. Do the almond growers receive subsidized water? I don't know how else the economics of this works out. (Unless the water used to grow almonds isn't up to the purity standards of drinking water, and they're counting on the tree to filter it...)
  - ceejayoz 9y ago
    > But... one gallon of bottled water is more than a dollar. A gallon of tap water isn't, and a gallon of agricultural well water is even cheaper.
  - mangodrunk 9y ago
    Water is typically very cheap, when it's not bottled. So I imagine they aren't using bottled water, which would be outrageously priced, but hopefully it deters some people from buying it.
  - pfooti 9y ago
    Yes, they do. Water is a lot less expensive for farmers, always has been. This [0] is a pretty good analysis of how California spends its water. One interesting point: instead of carefully installing low-flow fixtures and rationing showers and letting your lawn die, you could pay the california alfalfa industry about $2 to grow $2 less alfalfa for a year. 0: http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/05/11/california-water-you-doing/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/05/11/california-water-you-do...
  - jkimmel 9y ago
    Agricultural land is often connected to 19th century water rights in CA, allowing nearly unlimited access to ground water and a set allocation of running streams at very low cost. Access to ground water is so unrestricted that the entire Central Valley is sinking! https://www.revealnews.org/article/california-is-sinking-and-its-getting-worse/ https://www.revealnews.org/article/california-is-sinking-and...
  - WillPostForFood 9y ago
- r00fus 9y ago
  Forget about almonds - livestock (and to a lesser extent dairy) takes the most water per pound. Want to prevent the central valley sinking [1]? Maybe we should have less cows and pigs and selling a lot of the meat abroad. [1] http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article31527953.html http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drough...
fra 9y ago
Two things: 1. Despite population growth, urban water use is falling in california 2. Residential water consumption is dwarfed by industrial & agricultural uses http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=1108 http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=1108

jkimmel 9y ago

Only ~10% of California's water use is residential/urban (varies a little bit year to year) [0]. The majority of non-environmental water is used to grow cash crops in the central valley, like almonds, which take 1 gal/almond. Overall, urban residents have far less impact on climate than exurban residents who drive around in SUVs. It is in the best interests of everyone on planet Earth to make our cities denser and more inviting [1, 2]. [0] - http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=1108 http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=1108 [1] - http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/ http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/ [2] - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/23/city-dwellers-smaller-carbon-footprints https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/23/city-dwe...

wfunction 9y ago
Wouldn't you need to grow more food supporting the growing in-population though?
- SamReidHughes 9y ago
  You can be sure California exports a ton of its food.
  - wfunction 9y ago
    I feel like I can also be sure the export isn't really going to drop much with people coming in, but the domestic usage will rise if you keep letting people in. So the mere fact that we export doesn't really seem to help things.
    - jkimmel 9y ago
      There is a set of assumptions in your argument that I believe are false. 1. Unregulated water use that allows for production of export cash crops will continue This could easily be fixed by regulating water use properly, such that farmers have economic incentive to grow crops that are less water intensive given that CA is not water rich. 2. Market prices of current export and current import crops will hold constant regardless of growth That's not how markets work. If there was a sudden surge in lettuce demand, farmers in Salinas would respond to increasing prices by switching some fields currently used for export crops to lettuce, which would be consumed locally. This is aided by point (1) above, where we could push this shift with water regulations. On the whole -- your concerns seem best addressed by sensible regulation of water in CA, which is a long term political problem. Opposing the farm lobby is well known third rail in the CA Leg. Nativist population control programs are not the solution to a market failure of water distribution, however they might be implemented. Opposing housing construction is even a really poor way to implement a nativist population control program.
- stevenwoo 9y ago
  California exports food so it would just have to stop exporting so much. https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/ https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/
  - wfunction 9y ago
    Yes but please see my reply on the previous comment saying the same thing: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14305121 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14305121
- jkimmel 9y ago
  CA exports a large portion of its agricultural products, including several top exports that are very water intensive to grow (again, almonds, walnuts, dairy & beef). Moreover, current irrigation methods in the valley are not ideal for water conservation. Many farmers have water rights dating to the 19th century allowing nearly unfettered access to whatever water they can find, providing no economic incentive to invest in conservation infrastructure. There is no Californian Malthusian crisis, just a story of poor resource management. https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/ https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/
  - wfunction 9y ago
    Yes but please see my reply on the previous comment saying the same thing: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14305121 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14305121
- mbillie1 9y ago
  That's not really how food distribution works, in the US or most other first world countries, so no.
AnimalMuppet 9y ago
One gallon per almond? But... one gallon of bottled water is more than a dollar. I know there's packaging and transportation, but there's packaging and transportation for the almonds, too. And almonds are not one dollar per almond. Do the almond growers receive subsidized water? I don't know how else the economics of this works out. (Unless the water used to grow almonds isn't up to the purity standards of drinking water, and they're counting on the tree to filter it...)
- ceejayoz 9y ago
  > But... one gallon of bottled water is more than a dollar. A gallon of tap water isn't, and a gallon of agricultural well water is even cheaper.
- mangodrunk 9y ago
  Water is typically very cheap, when it's not bottled. So I imagine they aren't using bottled water, which would be outrageously priced, but hopefully it deters some people from buying it.
- pfooti 9y ago
  Yes, they do. Water is a lot less expensive for farmers, always has been. This [0] is a pretty good analysis of how California spends its water. One interesting point: instead of carefully installing low-flow fixtures and rationing showers and letting your lawn die, you could pay the california alfalfa industry about $2 to grow $2 less alfalfa for a year. 0: http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/05/11/california-water-you-doing/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/05/11/california-water-you-do...
- jkimmel 9y ago
  Agricultural land is often connected to 19th century water rights in CA, allowing nearly unlimited access to ground water and a set allocation of running streams at very low cost. Access to ground water is so unrestricted that the entire Central Valley is sinking! https://www.revealnews.org/article/california-is-sinking-and-its-getting-worse/ https://www.revealnews.org/article/california-is-sinking-and...
- WillPostForFood 9y ago
r00fus 9y ago
Forget about almonds - livestock (and to a lesser extent dairy) takes the most water per pound. Want to prevent the central valley sinking [1]? Maybe we should have less cows and pigs and selling a lot of the meat abroad. [1] http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article31527953.html http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drough...

fra 9y ago

Two things: 1. Despite population growth, urban water use is falling in california 2. Residential water consumption is dwarfed by industrial & agricultural uses http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=1108 http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=1108