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The one professional prognosticator who came closest to predicting a Trump win at 33% agrees with the letter playing an outsize role - https://fivethirtyeight.c

• koolba 10y ago
  There's also a follow up by I believe the NYT that downplays the letter. Per the trajectory of the polls leading into the date it was released, she wa on the way down both nationally and in the key swing states. The release of the letter coincided with polls that showed that slide yet predated its release (in collection). It's not that it didn't have an impact. Just that it probably wasn't the deciding factor.
  • hendersoon 10y ago
    The results in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were so close-- under 1%-- that even if the letter only induced a 1% shift, it was THE deciding factor. If you read the 538 story, this is his "Little Comey" version. That doesn't mean Hillary didn't make a huge strategic mistake in going after Trump's competence and character rather than focusing on the issues. She did. She totally did.
• ethanhunt_ 10y ago
  Nate Silver came closest to predicting a Trump win? That's laughable. The USC poll had Trump as winning, and I'd be surprised if there weren't more pollers who had an accurate reading (I only know of the few most popular ones).
  • akhilcacharya 10y ago
    They were off by several points. That poll just measured the PV.