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I suspect that the at 25 income prediction will be less and less accurate as a predictor given high value PhD's. In the past the rarity of those programs might
by TimPC 9y ago
I suspect that the at 25 income prediction will be less and less accurate as a predictor given high value PhD's. In the past the rarity of those programs might have covered up the problem with using those estimates for that group, but as it grows it probably creates substantial challenges for such a metric. Similarly, with start-ups becoming more popular, income at Age 25 might value options at 0 and lead to an underreported value for anyone in a successful exit. Willingness to take risk with low income when young, might also lead to situations where founders are reporting 0 income at 25, but are likely to have successful careers regardless of whether they exit.
- HeyLaughingBoy 9y agoStill, relative to the population at large, the number of PhD's and startup founders isn't even a droplet in the bucket...
- Jare 9y agoHigh value PhDs should not be a significant portion of the statistic for the entire country.
- Thrymr 9y agoStatistically, those high value PhDs and successful exits are way off on the high end of the tail of the distribution for all 25-year-olds. I suspect they are not going to budge the median values at all.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- tom_mellior 9y ago> high value PhD's https://www.reference.com/education/percentage-americans-phd-2508f1120884e2a3 https://www.reference.com/education/percentage-americans-phd... says: "According to U.S. Census 2013 data, 1.68 percent of Americans over the age of 25 have a PhD. [...] [Adding in medical doctors], the total percent of Americans referred to as doctors equal to 3.16 percent." I'm guessing only a small part of those will be what you would call "high value", so I don't think there's enough there to shift the statistics in the way you say.