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Then what? Its not like we'll have a turn-key replacement for capitalism in 50-100 years. Industrial capitalism is over 200 years old and shows no signs of sto

Then what? Its not like we'll have a turn-key replacement for capitalism in 50-100 years. Industrial capitalism is over 200 years old and shows no signs of stopping. Its biggest competitor, communism, failed spectacularly. So yes, the oil money will run out and then the laws of scarcity will put these economies in the same place everyone else is in. This scarcity will trickle down to labor as the cycle repeats itself. Or, more likely, oil prices will crash once ICE gets replaced by electric vehicles and we power them with solar, nuclear, natural gas, and wind. That will most likely happen well before 50 years. A lot of good that oil will do Norway if no one wants it.

tankenmate 9y ago
The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund (somewhat strangely called the Government Pension Fund Global; it used to be called the Petroleum Fund, and it funded fully by tax receipts / profits from it's oil industry) is the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world at nearly USD1T. The Norwegian government rarely touches the capital (even though it is allowed to to a limited extent). With a minor reduction in spending it could in effect leave it's capital untouched (in nominal terms) and never reach zero. Norway also has a state pension fund that is the largest in Europe at slightly over USD700B, bigger than California's pension fund. Even if things turned bad Norway would still have USD250k~300k per citizen in state funds (if things turned out rosy it would be nearly USD650k per capita). Compare this to the USG of nearly USD9k per capita. In PPP terms Norway has little to worry about.
- drzaiusapelord 9y ago
  >at nearly USD1T. At today's prices. Do you really think oil demand will continue for the next 50-100 years at this level with all this investment in renewables? We're currently at a price slump close to pricing from two decades ago. Its a little presumptuous to think oil will continue to have this value.
  - PeterisP 9y ago
    What do you mean "at today's prices"? The Norway sovereign fund isn't the valuation of their oil businesses, it consists of 1T investments in non-oil businesses, including renewables, that have been funded by oil that's already sold at yesterday's prices. If oil become worthless tonight, they'd still have the 1T fund and it's ongoing proceeds.
  - mattkrause 9y ago
    That's the whole point of the fund--it's invested in things that are not oil. Wikipedia says it's a mixture of equities (60%), government bonds (25%), corporate bonds (10%) and real estate (5%). If (when) oil profits vanish, these investments will still be there. In fact, since they are legally unable to withdraw more than 4% of the fund's value each year (and typically make more than that), it should continue to grow indefinitely. The fund has a really interesting set of ethical guidelines--they won't invest in tobacco companies, companies causing severe environmental damage, or those involved in nuclear weapons or cluster munitions, for example.

tankenmate 9y ago

The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund (somewhat strangely called the Government Pension Fund Global; it used to be called the Petroleum Fund, and it funded fully by tax receipts / profits from it's oil industry) is the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world at nearly USD1T. The Norwegian government rarely touches the capital (even though it is allowed to to a limited extent). With a minor reduction in spending it could in effect leave it's capital untouched (in nominal terms) and never reach zero. Norway also has a state pension fund that is the largest in Europe at slightly over USD700B, bigger than California's pension fund. Even if things turned bad Norway would still have USD250k~300k per citizen in state funds (if things turned out rosy it would be nearly USD650k per capita). Compare this to the USG of nearly USD9k per capita. In PPP terms Norway has little to worry about.

drzaiusapelord 9y ago
>at nearly USD1T. At today's prices. Do you really think oil demand will continue for the next 50-100 years at this level with all this investment in renewables? We're currently at a price slump close to pricing from two decades ago. Its a little presumptuous to think oil will continue to have this value.
- PeterisP 9y ago
  What do you mean "at today's prices"? The Norway sovereign fund isn't the valuation of their oil businesses, it consists of 1T investments in non-oil businesses, including renewables, that have been funded by oil that's already sold at yesterday's prices. If oil become worthless tonight, they'd still have the 1T fund and it's ongoing proceeds.
- mattkrause 9y ago
  That's the whole point of the fund--it's invested in things that are not oil. Wikipedia says it's a mixture of equities (60%), government bonds (25%), corporate bonds (10%) and real estate (5%). If (when) oil profits vanish, these investments will still be there. In fact, since they are legally unable to withdraw more than 4% of the fund's value each year (and typically make more than that), it should continue to grow indefinitely. The fund has a really interesting set of ethical guidelines--they won't invest in tobacco companies, companies causing severe environmental damage, or those involved in nuclear weapons or cluster munitions, for example.