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Wasn't there an article the other day on HN[1] regarding how we're nearing "Full Employment"? How does that comport with the notion that somehow our increased
by crusso 9y ago
Wasn't there an article the other day on HN[1] regarding how we're nearing "Full Employment"? How does that comport with the notion that somehow our increased automation is eliminating jobs? Shouldn't we see a trend of higher unemployment as we continue to automate?
The Bloomberg article seems to focus more on the impact in localized areas, but at the national level, there are reallocations of jobs to new industries.
I know that eventually we'll have to contend with automation replacing all jobs that people could reasonably do - but for now, this seems like we're still in the "buggy whip" job displacement territory.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/05/upshot/were-getting-awfully-close-to-full-employment.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/05/upshot/were-getting-awful...
- ThomPete 9y agoThe jobs are mostly temp jobs not full time jobs. Bush changed how jobs are defined obama continued that with the result that 95% of jobs created since the financial cricis are temp jobs. This is a big deal in the us as it cuts of access to ex healthcare. Its very grim whats going on.
- flyingfences 9y agoJobs are still jobs, though. If people are still employed then that means that there are still jobs for people to do.
- vkou 9y agoThere are always 'jobs' for people to do. I, for one, would love to have a dozen servants to do everything for me. I'm just not interested in paying them a living wage. Most of those temp jobs do not pay a living wage. They exist because of the largess of either government subsidies for the working poor, the largess of relatives of the working poor, or because said working poor are burning the furniture to keep warm. (And the government will have to bail them out when they reach retirement age.) A job that doesn't, or can't pay a living wage is a net drain on the economy. It expects somebody else to subsidize the person working it.
- TimPC 9y agoThis is true only when the alternative is a living wage job. A job that needs a top-up of benefits from the government is economically better for the government than that person relying entirely on government benefits. Most companies that pay low wages would potentially not exist if they had to pay $15+ an hour today. At a minimum the price structure of goods would radically alter and the incentives to cut workforce would dramatically increase. The poor aren’t necessarily better off with higher salary if that salary is paid for by higher prices on everything they buy.
- vkou 9y ago> A job that needs a top-up of benefits from the government is economically better for the government than that person relying entirely on government benefits. Unless the government could instead be paying that person to do something useful for all of society, instead of something that benefits only me. This election has shown that millions of people want meaningful work. Like teaching and caring for children, filling potholes, building bridges, laying down light transit rail, digging trenches to bring fiber to slow-connection areas... Every single time we talk about infrastructure, we are constrained by how broke the government is. Meanwhile, real unemployment is at 9%, and public funds are paying underemployed people to be greeters at Wal-Mart, and mowing lawns at the Google campus. I also assure you that my subsidized servants will not be bringing down the price of bread at the grocery, for anyone - poor or otherwise.
- H1Supreme 9y agoGreat point. The amount of infrastructure that needs upgraded in the USA is massive. Subsidizing shitty retail jobs is such a waste.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- s73ver 9y agoI don't completely believe that. Further, if these companies are not offering jobs with living wages, and expecting the safety net to pick up the slack, why are we not taxing the hell out of them? At least to the point where they pay back what they've drained.
- ThomPete 9y agoJobs are jobs there are just less and less of those who can pay a salary you can live from. Not sure what you are trying to say.
- VLM 9y agoThe BLS government definition ends unemployment status at one year. There's a classic Micheal Moore movie (or, someone else?) where he discussed the closure of the Janesville Wisconsin General Motors assembly plant which historically employed between 10% and 1% of the city. In December 2008 when it closed the number of unemployed increased by 1200 people. In December of 2009 the number of unemployed auto workers legally officially dropped to zero. Obviously all 1200 people didn't get jobs... Thats where SSDI comes into play, because unemployment is a state funded program but SSDI is federally funded. SSDI has been roughly doubling in size every 5 years since the 80s, very roughly. Currently there's about 14 million under 65 getting federal disability benefits. Its increased from about 2 percent to about 4 percent of the population this century, and shows no indication of leveling off or decreasing, LOL. So the current unemployement rate of 4.7% is realistically about 8.7%
- robotresearcher 9y agoIt'd be a shame to suppress or resent improved productivity from automation because the local social policy was messed up. A nation made wealthy from technology could choose to organize its healthcare differently.
- ThomPete 9y agoYes but that doesen't solve the problem. For single payer healthcare to work people will need to make more money. The more money they make on mundane things the more likely they are to be replaced by automation. It's a vicious cycle.
- robotresearcher 9y agoPeople make less money in Canada, the UK, Netherlands, etc. which all have single payer. It's cheaper. I'm not saying it's easy to get there. But it can be done by popular will.
- ThomPete 9y agoThe bottom i.e. the majority of workers makes way way less money than in the UK, Canada etc.